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ASIA JULY 26, 1999 VOL. 154 NO. 3 | |
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The Real Race Begins
With the votes all in, Megawati is the favorite to win the presidency. But don't count Habibie out yet By ANTHONY SPAETH Indonesia's big tryst with democracy--its first free parliamentary elections since 1955--took place way back in early June, and the final vote count has only just come in. But a new campaign is already well under way on the central island of Java. Ngatimin, a pedicab driver from the city of Surabaya, proudly exhibits a tiny scab on his right thumb. In an expression of democratic fervor, Ngatimin pricked his finger to add a blood signature to a petition backing Megawati Sukarnoputri as the country's next president. "To support her," he says, "I will do anything." With the parliamentary vote now tabulated, Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party For Struggle has won 154 of the 462 seats contested--considerably more than the 120 positions clinched by the ruling Golkar party of President B.J. Habibie. But the June elections for the upper and lower Houses of Parliament, however vital, were in many ways a mere preliminary round for the selection of the country's next president, a process that will start in October. For this complex election, voters will mainly come from the new House of Representatives; Megawati, based on the plurality she garnered in the parliamentary polls, is the leading contender. But Habibie, whose party got only 22% of the popular vote compared with Megawati's 34%, is looking distinctly unrepudiated--and possibly poised for political rebound. Earlier this month, when Golkar's provincial representatives met to discuss the election results, vice-chairman Marzuki Darusman, who also heads the National Commission on Human Rights, proposed that Habibie be dropped as the party's presidential candidate. Golkar's reply: a unanimous reaffirmation of Habibie as its leader. "We have the upper hand in the presidential race," declares Eki Syachrudin, a senior Golkar member. Golkar's reasoning: for a party that represents 32 years of one-man rule and that's now led by the hand-chosen successor to the ignobly overthrown Suharto, 22% of the popular vote isn't bad. In particular, Golkar believes it retains large-scale support in the provinces, if not in Jakarta and other cities. The president will be chosen by the People's Consultative Assembly, which includes both the newly elected legislators and 238 appointees. Each of Indonesia's 27 provinces sends five such appointees to the body, and Golkar expects solid support from at least 14 provinces. Habibie also could win support from pro-Islamic parties and religious factions within other parties and the military. (For years he was Suharto's chosen leader of the Indonesian Association of Muslim Intellectuals, one of the country's most influential Islamic groups.) Then there are two wild cards. Money politics is a new, powerful force in Indonesia, and Golkar has potentially the deepest coffers for delegate persuasion. And no one knows which candidate will get the backing of the military's 38 delegates in the electoral college. General Wiranto, the Indonesian military commander, has said that the military will definitely cast its votes, but hasn't revealed for whom. "We hold the ace," says an officer in the military. "Opening our cards now may lead to a situation where we cannot influence the outcome. We will wait until the 11th hour." Which is why ordinary people across Java are shedding drops of blood to support Megawati's candidacy. Many fear that the complicated mechanics of electing a president, designed by Suharto to minimize direct public participation, will be used to nullify Megawati's electoral victory in parliament. "The people are the only ones who should count," says Dimyati Hartono, deputy chairman of Megawati's organization, the Democratic Party of Struggle. "The party that gets the most votes should choose the president." Even those less than enamored of the 52-year-old daughter of Indonesia's first President, Sukarno, say it's important for the parliamentary verdict not to be obliterated in the wheeling and dealing of the presidential race. "I'd rather have someone else as president," says Eman Hermawan, an executive of the Institute for Islamic and Social Studies, which champions fair elections. "But Megawati's party won, and this is the time to teach the people that their votes do matter in the end." Megawati is being characteristically sphinx-like, about both policy stances and political strategy, even while her opponents rev up a smear campaign. Some are questioning whether a woman is suitable as head of a largely Islamic nation and whether Megawati, who doesn't have a college degree, has the necessary education. Some even criticize the fact that she's been married three times. Megawati's supporters reject the complaints as diversions. "When people voted for us, they were voting for Megawati for the presidency," says her party colleague Kapin Subiantoro, who won a seat in Yogyakarta. "I can't imagine what the reaction will be if that doesn't happen." In other words: today's pinpricks could turn into something a lot bloodier. Reported by Zamira Loebis/Yogyakarta and Jason Tedjasukmana/Jakarta
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