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The human rights issue is a guaranteed nonstarter. Election-season politics will sharpen U.S. criticism during Zhu's visit, and both the State Department and activist groups accurately note that China is not even fulfilling its pledges in two human rights-related covenants it signed in the last two years. "It's time to insist that the reality match the rhetoric," says Catharine Baber, China researcher for Amnesty International. Or is it? The situation in China is fragile. Zhu's economic reforms are causing massive unemployment in a country without any kind of social security. Besides, this year brings some emotive anniversaries: the 50th of the founding of the People's Republic, the 80th of the student-led May 4 movement and, on June 4, the 10th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. Anniversaries often spur protests in China, and Beijing is sure to use all its tools of oppression to avoid that. "To the Chinese, political matters are internal affairs," says Hong Kong-based democracy activist Mak Hoi Wah. "They are not prepared to accept international intervention."
Another uncrackable nut is Washington's new interest in a Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system, a rehashed version of Ronald Reagan's Star Wars defense shield. Funding for research was approved only in March, but suggestions that Taiwan be included in the umbrella already have Beijing hopping mad. "On TMD, China and America are head-to-head in fighting postures," says Byron Weng, chairman of the department of government at Hong Kong's Chinese University. Business should be Zhu's metier, considering his previous job as China's economics czar and his current campaign to overhaul China's economy. But even prosaic trade issues get political between China and the U.S. The Cox committee has investigated, among other things, the possibility that Hughes Electronics Corp. and Loral Space & Communications illegally transferred missile guidance technology to China in 1995. Cox's revelations could lead to further export restrictions on high-tech products to China, a possibility that worries the American business community. U.S. sales of satellites to China could rise to an estimated $171 billion by 2007, from $38 billion in 1997--but such growth won't occur under new export restrictions. Non-American firms could easily grab the business, warns the chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, Richard Latham. "Then you're locked out of that market for 10 to 15 years." As Commerce Secretary William Daley told an audience in Beijing last week: "This is the worst climate for high-tech trade in 20 years." Similarly, China's bid to join the WTO had been touted as the one concrete achievement Zhu could conceivably clinch during his visit. Daley and U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky both flew to Beijing last week for 11th-hour negotiations. But to make the deal palatable for U.S. business, they had to prod China to relax restrictions on various imports--and also pry open Chinese markets to such services as insurance and telecommunications. For China, WTO membership would aid its export-driven economy and give Beijing a commanding role in a large international organization. The cost: opening up large industries to competition, probably leading to more layoffs. That price seemed excessive to Zhu last year, when similar negotiations were allowed to lapse. Zhu Rongji might well feel like a general behind enemy lines when he hits the U.S. "The two countries are destined to compete with each other," says Chinese University's Weng. "You cannot think of one being subordinate to the other. The two are bound to try to cooperate but also fight." Perhaps it is fitting that one of Zhu's first stops is Universal Studios, with its roller coasters and a ride in which a giant shark threatens to chew you up. It's good preparation for the thrills awaiting him in Washington. Reported by Jaime A. FlorCruz and Mia Turner/Beijing, Maria Cheng and Isabella Ng/Hong Kong and Sally B. Donnelly and Elaine Shannon/Washington PAGE 1 | 2 | 3 |
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