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Web-only Exclusives November 30, 2000 From Our Correspondent: Hirohito and the War A conversation with biographer Herbert Bix From Our Correspondent: A Rough Road Ahead Bad news for the Philippines - and some others From Our Correspondent: Making Enemies Indonesia needs friends. So why is it picking fights? |
JULY 30, 1999 VOL. 25 NO. 30
Monitor
The WEF's GDP Growth Guestimate
The Geneva-based World Economic Forum generated a statistical model using its Competitiveness Index, income levels, current growth rates and growth over the last eight years to predict how 59 countries will fare in the years 2000 to 2008. It's one method for peering into the future, but the WEF admits it generates rosier outlooks for poorer countries. The method also assumes that the future will behave much like the past. Which is seldom the case, is it?
| GROWTH PROJECTIONS, 2000-2008 | |||
| Rank | Country | Predicted avg. annual per capita GDP growth |
Current GDP growth* |
| 1 | Singapore | 5.02% | 1.20% |
| 2 | Taiwan | 4.29 | 4.3 |
| 3 | Malaysia | 4.19 | -1.3 |
| 4 | Hong Kong | 4.13 | -3.4 |
| 5 | United States | 4.07 | 4.3 |
| 11 | Indonesia | 3.78 | 1.8 |
| 14 | Philippines | 3.65 | 1.2 |
| 16 | Vietnam | 3.62 | 4 |
| 17 | China | 3.59 | 8.3 |
| 19 | Japan | 3.5 | 0.1 |
| 21 | South Korea | 3.35 | 4.6 |
| 23 | Thailand | 3.33 | -8 |
| Sources: World Economic Forum 1999 Global Competitiveness Report
* Asiaweek figures |
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