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MAY 12, 2000 VOL. 26 NO. 18 | SEARCH ASIAWEEK
The Thai people will get a clean Senate no matter how many polls it takes, if the new Election Commission has anything to say about it By JULIAN GEARING Saraburi Ballots, not bullets, are the route to power in Thailand today. Ask Manoonkrit Roopkachorn. The career soldier led two unsuccessful coups in 1981 and 1985 against the longtime military dictatorship of Gen. Prem Tinsulanond. Before that he participated in the "silent" coup against the government of Thanin Kraivichien in 1977. For his troubles, the former cavalry officer spent years in exile. When he returned in the 1990s, the atmosphere in Thailand had definitely changed, and Manoonkrit had to move with the times and put away his gun. The former general is finding that securing a seat in the Thai Senate is almost as hard as overthrowing a dictatorship. In times past in rural constituencies such as his in Saraburi in central Thailand, he might have spread some money around. But in 1997 Thailand adopted a new Constitution and set up an Election Commission, which has demonstrated that it can bite hard. In the Senate polling of March 4, Manoonkrit won a healthy 140,000 ballots, only to find himself accused of buying votes. He was disqualified along with 77 other Senate winners. In Thailand there is always a second chance, and Manoonkrit romped back with another victory when a second round of voting was held on April 29 to fill seats of the ignominious 78 (44 were still returned). This time, he insisted, dropping his paper into the ballot box in his upcountry polling station, his campaign was squeaky clean. "I did not spend even one baht on corrupt practices," said the 65-year-old ex-general. "The choice was made by the people." Not everybody buys that. The possibility that Manoonkrit's and others' victories were the result of "second-time cheats," has presented the Election Commission chief Yuwarat Kamolvej with an exquisite dilemma. The doggedly determined bureaucrat has vowed to disqualify any winner who is corrupt, but that may prompt yet a third round of elections for the Senate. The Supreme Court has recently ruled that parliament cannot meet until the full 200-seat Senate is constituted. If parliament cannot meet in June, it cannot confirm the government of Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai and his ministers. Holding another election, however, has even more pitfalls. For one thing, the process can be expensive. The last round of voting probably cost about $80 million. It also risks public apathy. The turnout for the second round of voting was already significantly lower than for the first election in March. Another option might be to seat the senators and then expel those found guilty of cheating. But Election Commissioner Sawasdi Chotepanich said this would be unlikely. A decision whether to call another election will be made in about a week. But one local election council official in Manoonkrit's hometown says, "If we hear of allegations of fraud we will go back to elections again and again and again." Thailand is clearly in the grip of a revolution that is overturning the certainties of old-style politicians and ushering in real democracy. It can be seen in the number of people who were disqualified in the recent Senate elections and also in the groundbreaking charges of falsifying an assets declaration made last month by the National Counter-Corruption Commission (NCCC) against the country's second-most powerful man, deputy premier and interior minister Sanan Kachornprasart, who was forced to resign. Critics claim Manoonkrit will act as a stalking horse for the Democrat Party in the Senate if he is seated. Manoonkrit denies this: "My only concern is with Maj.-Gen. Sanan, as a friend since I was young, and as an adviser." But is it right for a coup-maker - even if it were decades ago - to be participating in democratic politics? "It is a different way to former times," Manoonkrit tells Asiaweek. He says he rebelled in the 1980s against military dictatorship, with the idea of democratic change in mind. The former "Young Turk" claims he lobbied as far back as the 1970s for an elected Senate, "but nobody accepted the idea." Now the idea has been written in to the Constitution, and bureaucrats wielding summons documents, not pro-democracy demonstrators out on the streets, are the heroes of the day. Election Commissioner Yuwarat appears an unlikely one. Small, rotund, with a ready sense of humor, the 67-year-old lawyer and veteran of the electoral process is cool in the face of angry people with influence. "On March 4, everybody thought we were heroes in conducting the Senate election," he says. "Then when we took 78 candidates to task, all hell broke loose." Workaholic Yuwarat shrugs off the need for police cavalcades and security with a certain bravado: "I am not afraid of dying." Just as well. Bullets have been flying since last year as the political tension has risen. A member of parliament, political canvassers and lawyers have been among the targets. The most notable cases: the serious wounding last year of Democrat MP Panawat Liengphong and, recently, senior prosecutor Likhit Petchsawang, the younger brother of a deputy house speaker. Bullet-proof vests have been selling like somtam, the Thai spicy salad. And the country's estimated 800 gunmen for hire, many in the pay of influential politicians, have been oiling their weapons in anticipation of a showdown in the run-up to the general election for the House of Representatives, likely to take place near the end of the year. But things are changing. Six months ago, Thais would not have believed that politicians of influence could be brought down. At least one has (see box page 24) . The public is witnessing serious efforts to tackle vote-buying and corruption, though the going is proving tough, especially in the countryside. Will the general election see a repeat of the scandals? Election Commissioner Yuwarat is certain that the elections to the lower house will be less troublesome. "The process will be different in that, like with a football team, you have a manager and a coach and the mechanism of the political parties to keep candidates in order." But that may be too optimistic, says Duncan McCargo, a political specialist on Thailand: "The problems at the general election could be huge, since there will be far more people in play this time around, and 500 seats will be contested instead of 200. If a foul is cried over a substantial number of parliamentary seats, the election results as a whole could be invalidated until comprehensive investigations are carried out. That could leave Thailand with no proper government for weeks or even months." But while the new Constitution is clearly setting the game straight, old-style politics are not going to disappear overnight. "We saw vote-buying and neighborhood electioneering parties, even though they are supposed to be prohibited," says Sawat Yanyong, 26, a farmer sitting on his tractor in Saraburi. "The second poll was quieter, but I still think corrupt practices are going on." Political scientist McCargo agrees: "Nothing has changed on the ground. Ninety percent of Thai voters are in provincial constituencies where money still talks." He points to the networks of canvassers and the established patronage system which is difficult to break. "So long as there are substantial financial rewards for those who enter politics through access to state resources and contracts there will be no lack of funds to pay for votes and electoral manipulation." More money than ever could be spent at the upcoming general election. A Saraburi village headman, Sunthorn Soubon, 31, believes there will certainly be more opportunity: "There are smaller constituencies, candidates fighting one against one, and I sense that the competition between parties will see a lot of money being thrown around." Already politicians are jockeying to get ready, with pundits predicting a spirited race between PM Chuan's Democrat Party and Thaksin Shinawatra's well-funded Thai Rak Thai Party. In that contest, Bangkok will be an important, electoral battleground, but whatever the line-up, and whatever the odds, the election will really be won or lost upcountry in constituencies like Saraburi. And it is in the provinces that old-style patronage politics is most entrenched. "The difference between Bangkok and upcountry is the culture," says Manoonkrit. "Even with the new Constitution, in the provinces they still have their own political culture which depends on community leaders. There is a low level of education. That is why I have come here. There is a need for change." For the majority of the Thai electorate in the provinces, it is personalities, patronage and money that still dictate the game of politics - len kanmuang (playing politics). Getting rid of the guns, goons and godfathers will not happen overnight. The public needs to be educated. But even making a start has been an extraordinary experience for Thailand. Write to Asiaweek at mail@web.asiaweek.com
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