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Web-only Exclusives
November 30, 2000

From Our Correspondent: Hirohito and the War
A conversation with biographer Herbert Bix

From Our Correspondent: A Rough Road Ahead
Bad news for the Philippines - and some others

From Our Correspondent: Making Enemies
Indonesia needs friends. So why is it picking fights?

AsiaweekTimeAsia NowAsiaweek

MARCH 24, 2000 VOL. 26 NO. 11

Blue-Water Ambitions
Beijing is building up its navy to project power
By ANTHONY DAVIS

 
  ALSO IN ASIAWEEK
Cover: Creative Destruction City
The choice is tough: should Singapore jettison its safe old ways in order to prosper in the age of globalization?
• Report Card: What Singapore is doing right
• The Press: How free - and on what topics?
• Society: The highs and the lows of being Singaporean

Editorial: U.S. President Bill Clinton can help defuse tensions between India and Pakistan - but not much
Editorial: Manila must clean up its stock-market mess

THE NATIONS
China: What the NPC yielded
• Security: Why Beijing is getting deeper into blue water
Malaysia: Behind the attacks on Astro
India/Pakistan: Clinton is going to South Asia. Is that a good idea?
• Interview: Cohen says the U.S. will not mediate Kashmir
Thailand: The central bank's burden - prevent another Crisis
Indonesia: How Wahid became his country's strongest power
• Military: Call it "de-Wiranto-ization"
• Prejudice: Why Malaysia's media are tough on Gus Dur
Viewpoint: False fears about globalization

ARTS & SCIENCES
Education: A child's murder rouses a debate about parenting
Burdened: Japanese moms on the frontlines
• Movie: Beating the exam odds in reel life
• Dream School: Innovations in Okinawa
Design: Activists' fashion statement in the Philippines
Newsmakers: Courtside scorecard for Malaysia

TECHNOLOGY
The Net: South Korea's online stock-trading mania
Cutting Edge: IBM enters a new eon

BUSINESS
Investing: The power of brokers on the Manila bourse
IPO Watch: Sunevision will begin life at a premium stock price
Business Buzz: All is not well in Dotcomland

If you were unlucky enough to be on the receiving end, the only good news is that you would probably never know what hit you. With a reach exceeding 120 km, it closes in at more than twice the speed of sound, skimming the waves. If you did know what was coming, you would have at most 25 panic-filled seconds to take counter-measures. Meet Moskit, the world's fastest anti-ship missile - and the newest, deadliest weapon in China's naval arsenal.


August Sigur/U.S. Navy
Now, advanced Russian-built destroyers may tilt the naval balance in the Taiwan straight

Better known in the West as Sunburn, the projectile recently arrived in the Taiwan Strait aboard the first of two Russian-built Sovremenny-class destroyers bought by Beijing. Besides eight Moskits, the ship carries state-of-the-art Grizzly anti-aircraft missiles. And it is armed with a modern anti-submarine warfare capability that will cause sailors on Taiwan's four aging submarines sleepless nights. "The Sovremennys give the Chinese navy a punch it has been lacking," says Robert Karniol, Jane's Defense Weekly's Asia-Pacific editor. "The Taiwan navy has had the balance of power in its favor, particularly after its acquisitions in the past decade. But the Sovremennys are a match for, if not superior to, anything Taiwan has acquired." They will also give the U.S. navy some pause.

In fact, the destroyers will have repercussions far beyond the Taiwan Strait. They are a key part of Beijing's plans to transform its navy from an obsolete coastal force to a blue-water fleet capable of power projection far afield. "China is reinventing itself as a great power," notes Ehsan Ahrari, a professor at the Armed Forces Staff College in Norfolk, Virginia.

One help has been the end of the Soviet land threat to China. It has permitted Chinese military planners to turn to the country's maritime periphery, focusing on the navy and the air force. And Beijing's post-1994 entente with Moscow and the opening up of Russia's high-tech arms bazaar presented new opportunities. China has bought four advanced Kilo subs (with more to come), Su-27 and Su-30 multi-purpose fighters and now the Sovremennys - with orders for another pair.

Not everything has been smooth sailing, though. Many indigenous programs, notably Beijing's own submarine projects, have confronted naval engineers and sailors with a painful learning curve. "They've made determined but limited progress," says John Downing, a British naval analyst. "They're only beginning to understand the problems." One difficulty: Buying a high-tech naval or air-force system off the shelf is one thing, but maintaining or deploying it is another. Take the Kilos. China acquired its first two Kilos in 1995, and another two by late 1998. But by mid-1998 two of them were idled, with major problems caused by cost-cutting on crew training and maintenance. Beijing is anxious to avoid similar troubles with its Sovremenny. The whole crew trained in Russian waters and sailed the vessel back to China with Russian advisers on board. But the new destroyers and their advanced technologies still have to be integrated into a larger battle group - a complex task.

The Chinese navy comprises the Northern Fleet (based in Qingdao), the Eastern Fleet (Shanghai) and the Southern Fleet (Zhanjiang). Being planned is a roving fourth force to reinforce the other fleets and project power into the South China Sea, and the Pacific and Indian oceans.

That raises the question of whether China will opt for an aircraft carrier - the centerpiece of a real blue-water navy. But the expense and complexity of such a project has sparked fierce debate in China. Many navy officers would prefer to channel the funds toward less glitzy - and less militarily vulnerable - areas. For now, Beijing seems to be holding back. That means the new Sovremennys will likely spearhead any future fourth fleet.

The Chinese navy is now beefing up training in order to boost its influence in the waters around Taiwan and the disputed Spratly islands. "They want to get real operational capability in the South China Sea," says Downing. One key weakness: a lack of sound in-flight refueling capacity for warplanes providing maritime air cover. For all its teething problems, though, China's navy is gradually making the transition to blue water. It is also preparing for the contingency that Beijing sees as most likely in the decades ahead - "limited wars" on a maritime periphery that is slowly but surely expanding.

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