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Intelligence: Welcome to the World
ASEAN Day Five: Pyongyang makes a splash
By ALEJANDRO REYES in Bangkok

July 28, 2000
Web posted at 5:30 p.m. Hong Kong time, 5:30 a.m. EDT


It is hard to know what Paek Nam Sun made of all the attention he got as soon as he stepped off the Thai Airways flight from Beijing. Though he looked a little dazed, the North Korean foreign minister must have expected that he would be hounded by the media pack from the moment he arrived in Bangkok for his heavy schedule of bilateral meetings and sessions of the ASEAN Regional Forum. Pyongyang is participating for the first time in the security panel, which was officially set up in 1994. It tried to get in years ago, but had remained out for various reasons -- either it wasn't wanted or it wouldn't join -- until this year. Now, after the recent historic inter-Korean summit in June, North Korea was welcomed to the table, partly thanks to ASEAN chair Thailand which pulled off a diplomatic coup by arranging for ARF admission in short order.

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In Bangkok, Paek had a series of groundbreaking face-to-face talks with his counterparts -- South Korea, Japan, and on July 28, the U.S. (Madeleine Albright arrived in Thailand late, delayed by the prolonged Camp David Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. Paek insisted on meeting the American secretary of state and not her stand-in, deputy Strobe Talbott.) Countries seemed eager to meet the newcomer. Canada's Lloyd Axworthy even announced that Ottawa had decided to establish diplomatic relations with North Korea later this year. In the actual ARF plenary, Paek said his country, which has alarmed its neighbors and the U.S. with its ballistic missile program, "has the desire and will to exert concerted effort to build an independent, peaceful and prosperous Asia." He took what was perceived as a swipe at Washington: Peace and stability on the Korean peninsula rested on "terminating the interference of the outside forces," he explained. "The Cold War is over, yet we have failed to establish a new international political and economic order."

While Paek's presence was one of the highlights of the ASEAN meetings, some ministers warned that one big splash on the international scene did not mean that Stalinist North Korea, once roundly condemned as a rogue state, was somehow suddenly worthy of trust, the darling of the diplomatic set. "We're a long way from having any confidence over North Korea's actions," said Axworthy. "There's going to be a very steep learning curve for them. In this region, it has been a problem and remains a problem." Meanwhile, Paek was doing his duty. In his ARF statement, he credited Pyongyang's warming relations with Seoul and its neighbors to "the broad-minded generosity, tolerant magnanimity and great all-embracing politics of the great leader of our people, General Kim Jong Il." Old habits die hard.

The "Airborne" ARF
True to form, Thai foreign minister Surin Pitsuwan was similarly upbeat after chairing the ARF meeting on July 27 as he was at the end of the ASEAN foreign ministers' retreat four days earlier. With all the major security protagonists of the region in attendance -- let's pause here to remember Pakistan, which wants in, but is still out -- "ARF is now airborne." Again, Surin hailed the open and lively discussion. "Nobody fell asleep."

Thank goodness. Indeed, if anybody had taken a snooze, they might have missed a few poignant moments. Myanmar's Win Aung groused about Yangon's persistent critics, questioning whether they really "want to see Myanmar in flames and burnt to ashes." Said the foreign minister: "The olive branch we've offered has been spurned by those who are opposing us in the belief that increasing pressure, isolating us and putting sanctions on us would work." From July 28, Myanmar is now the only ASEAN member shut out of participating in a European Union development scheme for the region.

Also at the closed-door meeting, China came out gunning for the U.S. on the issue of Washington's planned Theater Missile Defense (TMD) program. While Talbott listened tight-lipped, Chinese foreign minister Tang Jiaxuan criticized the "Cold War mentality [that] is still affecting the way some countries perceive world politics and international relations." He added: "Some people are hawking the TMD program against the tide of our times. Such developments are compromising regional confidence-building and aggravating the instability of regional security." The Russians chimed in, with foreign minister Igor Ivanov critical of both TMD and the National Missile Defense system, also planned by the U.S.

Is the ARF soaring? Well, maybe not. But it has taken a major step forward with the inclusion of Pyongyang. I covered the group's very first gathering -- an informal dinner in Singapore in 1993. At that time, the big news was that then-U.S. secretary of state Warren Christopher sat next to Nguyen Manh Cam, his opposite number from Vietnam, which was yet to join ASEAN. Now, Vietnam is a full ASEAN member, the incoming chair in fact, and the new coordinator for the next 12 months of the organization's dialogue with its most important partner, the U.S. Times have changed.

Yet ARF still seems to have little bark and no bite. It remains primarily an annual discussion forum. So-called "inter-session" meetings have been moving forward on so-called confidence-building measures (CBM) such as cooperation in regional search and rescue and a proposed training program to prepare for U.N. peacekeeping operations. In the policy-wonk vernacular, ARF is in between the CBM stage and the next level: preventive diplomacy. That means that the group is likely to need more active leadership and possibly a more formal structure.

But for that to happen requires the consensus of the 23 participants. It won't come easily. I asked a Southeast Asian diplomat why the international meeting on East Timor which took place on the sidelines of last year's APEC summit in Auckland wasn't held under the banner of the ARF when it was attended by practically all the same players, including -- controversially -- British foreign secretary Robin Cook, representing the EU. He asked me to shut off my tape recorder. "The ARF was just not ready for it," he lamented. "There was a lot of discussion about it. But there would have been opposition. East Timor, after all, was a U.N. issue. But the ARF was not yet at the level [where it could have happened]." Such are the ways of ASEAN diplomacy.

Big Man in Conference
With all eyes in Bangkok on Paek Nam Sun, many are wondering where North Korea all of a sudden found urbane, well dressed diplomats to plead its case around the world. ASEAN Secretary-General Rodolfo Severino points out that North Korea has been a member of the U.N. for some time so the country hasn't exactly been a complete hermit. And it had maintained ties with a range of countries in what had been the Communist bloc. About Paek, not that much is known. He became foreign minister nearly two years ago, having served in the Workers Party propaganda department for some time, overseeing South Korea policy. Born in 1929, he is said to have graduated from Kim Il Sung University. He became Pyongyang's man in Poland in 1974, serving for five years. Later he headed the Foreign Language Press Group and was vice chair of the Central Committee of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea Journalists Union. In his capacity as an adviser to the DPRK Red Cross and as a member of its standing committee, he participated in intermittent North-South talks for some years and visited Seoul at least four times.

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