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From
Our Correspondent: Rebuffed Again
Why
Pakistan failed to win admission to the ASEAN Regional Forum
By ALEJANDRO REYES
August
3, 2000
Web posted at 5:30 p.m. Hong Kong time, 5:30 a.m. EDT
With all eyes on North Korea at last week's ASEAN meetings in Bangkok, scant
attention was paid to the one that didn't get in. While Pyongyang won membership
in just a matter of weeks in the six-year-old security panel known as the
ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), Pakistan was rebuffed again after repeated tries.
This time, Islamabad had worked hard, circulating a letter pleading its
case and pumping meeting chairman Thailand for support. But to no avail.
"We did not have a consensus among ASEAN countries on the issue and will
leave the matter for other times," said Thai foreign minister Surin Pitsuwan
in perfect diplo-speak. Translation: Some of the 10 ASEAN members blocked
the bid.
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The
rejection is all the bitter for Pakistan because India is not just a member
of the ARF club, but also a full-fledged dialogue partner of ASEAN. What
India has, Pakistan also wants. Yet it now seems likely that Islamabad
will have to stay out in the cold for a while longer. Ask ASEAN officials
why some members object to Pakistan's inclusion and you get several answers.
It's too far away, say some. Well, there was the coup in October last
year and we shouldn't reward military ruler Gen. Pervez Musharraf, say
others. But to keep Islamabad out defies logic. Geography shouldn't be
an issue. If India is there, so should its neighbor. And since when have
a country's internal politics -- whether a military junta or a democratic
government is in power -- factored into ASEAN calculations? Didn't the
organization just welcome to the ARF table a country that had until recently
been universally condemned as a rogue state?
If anything, Pakistan's claim is stronger than that of Mongolia, which
is already a member. Islamabad, for one, is a nuclear player. And bringing
it into the ARF tent may help defuse tensions with rival India. What better
opportunity for ARF to show it can be a useful tool of regional preventive
diplomacy and not just an annual talkshop? But it's not that simple. Oddly,
one senior Southeast Asian official told me that Pakistan's weapon capabilities
couldn't be factored into its application because nobody officially recognizes
its nuclear status. Diplomatic principle or crazy reasoning? In any case,
ARF members aren't exactly jumping at the chance to turn the organization
into a more activist group that settles disputes. They simply are not
ready for that.
Pakistan does have its supporters. Thailand and the Philippines are said
to have pushed Islamabad's case, along with ASEAN's Muslim members --
Indonesia, Brunei, and Malaysia. But India has a good friend in Vietnam,
and Hanoi is reported to be cool to admitting Pakistan. That alone may
seal Islamabad's fate for at least the next 12 months. With Vietnam occupying
the ASEAN chair, Pakistan is unlikely to further its case. And even if
the 10 ASEAN members were to agree among themselves to accept Pakistan,
for it to join the ARF would require the consensus of the security grouping's
other 13 members. Many are already worry that the ARF has gotten too large
and have argued for a moratorium on expansion. They may have a point.
Bring in Pakistan and other South Asian countries -- Afghanistan, Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka, Nepal, and even Bhutan -- may start knocking on the door.
But the biggest obstacle for Islamabad will be India. "We are not opposing
anyone," insists Indian foreign minister Jaswant Singh, calling the issue
a "red herring." Still, when push comes to shove, Delhi will likely prefer
to relegate its archrival to the sidelines.
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