MORE AND MORE, THE PEOPLE GET THEIR SAY

By those yardsticks, will Asia become truly, deeply democratic? Not in the next decade or two, say political pundits. Take a look. India's democracy is vigorous and rambunctious, but also extremely volatile. It has produced three governments in three years, as well as one of Asia's more corrupt societies. The Philippines and Thailand still must deal with military and land-owning interests that keep many people poor. Singapore and Malaysia have the form, but not the essence, of democracy. Like Japan, they have returned the same parties to power virtually uninterrupted since Independence, and one key reason is that the opposition has been kept weak. Indonesia? It has taken a baby step toward rule of the people. Myanmar hasn't even begun to crawl. Nor is Cambodia much better off. There, a virulent civil war and Khmer Rouge savagery have badly eroded the political and economic institutions "without which one cannot even begin to talk of democracy," notes Joel Rocamora of Manila's Institute for Popular Democracy.

Even so, indications are that democracy will ultimately bloom in Asia. The region has taken great strides toward liberalization in recent decades, and the pace is likely to quicken in the new millennium. Despite early Greek theorizing, only in the 20th century has democracy come to be considered the "normal" form of government, argued Nobel laureate and economist Amartya Sen at a World Bank conference on democracy in Seoul earlier this year. Suffrage became universal just this century, as women in newly independent Asian countries like India, the Philippines and Malaysia got the vote.

Some experts believe that one person, one vote will spread even to China, spurred by economic progress. The communist nation will become a representative democracy around 2015, predicted Henry Rowen of Stanford University's Hoover Institute. Citing Rowen's theory, former Philippine presidential security adviser Jose Almonte has said that Beijing's efforts to build a rule of law as the basis for doing business, and the erosion of its control of information organs, are crucial changes spurring political transformation. "That the state still penalizes individual dissent so heavily seems a sign of how shaky the foundations of central control have become," Almonte adds. Other analysts disagree. They believe that while Beijing will allow the Chinese more freedoms, it will always counter threats to stability.

The prognosis for Indonesia is a bit clearer and more positive, especially after the country's June 7 polls. As a democratic exercise, the elections were a small, if historic, step. But the new government is under great pressure to install liberal institutions. Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle finished first with 34% of the votes, though it must work with other parties to form a coalition government. The new president is supposed to be chosen in November, and Muslim parties have major reservations about a woman leader. But the real test -and the key to democracy's future in Indonesia - is how well the new government can deliver a better standard of living.

In Malaysia, the government of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is more powerful than that of President B.J. Habibie in Indonesia. "Although more of a mess, Indonesia is now much more democratic," argues Rocamora. The sacking and jailing of former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim for abuse of power has raised doubts about political freedom in Malaysia. The reformasi movement that has surged with Anwar's tribulations could herald a livelier democracy. And the upcoming general election could provide pointers to the prospects for liberalization. However the polls go, once Mahathir leaves, his successors will have a harder time keeping the lid on reform.

For Thailand and the Philippines, the challenge isn't in maintaining formal democracies, but freeing them from elitist control. In the Philippines, the ruling powers are able to exert pressure on the mass media and maybe rewrite the Constitution to serve their own ends. Thailand has moved beyond its military regime with tight control over the provinces, to a democracy giving them greater autonomy. Yet the provinces are still run by corrupt warlords wielding much economic power. Thailand's constitutional reforms are laudable, but its democratic paradoxes will not be removed until Thai society becomes more egalitarian and its wealth is more evenly distributed. That is not likely to happen anytime soon.

So what is spurring democracy in Asia? Global trends aside, it's the economic crisis. U.S. political scientist Francis Fukuyama believes that the region is being drawn into convergence with Western liberalism because of economic turmoil. Fukuyama, author of The End of History and the Last Man, a seminal work on democracy's triumph after the Cold War, argued at the Seoul conference that the Crisis "has led to the unconditional defeat of the Japanese economic model of state-led development." It has also cast doubts on the growth-boosting credentials of Asian authoritarianism - long its main claim to legitimacy.

It is a sobering lesson for countries that sacrificed democratic principles in the pursuit of development. For others, the chances for political freedom have increased as they have become wealthier. According to Pei Minxin, a China analyst and former Princeton University professor, rising affluence tends to make countries remain free longer. So while Thailand's democracy may be immature, at least it is there to stay, Pei believes. With a per-capita income of $6,000 in purchasing-power parity, Thailand is unlikely to see its democracy reversed. (PPP provides a more comparable measure of wealth.) By the same calculation, the Philippines, with a per-capita PPP of $2,000-$3,000, is ensured democracy for another 26 years, while Cambodia, with $1,000, can hope for at least eight years.

Poverty alleviation has become the buzzword of liberal politics. Leading the movement are non-government organizations, or NGOs - local or foreign groups offering humanitarian aid or empowering individuals. Their numbers are growing, and their key role in democratic development has only recently been recognized. They're clenching fists for women's rights, battling big business to ban logging, and teaching AIDS awareness to migrant workers. Over the next decade and beyond, the relationship between government and civil society will continue along current trends. Throughout Asia, governments are ceding power to the private sector, including NGOs, sometimes by choice, often by necessity, states Peter Geithner of the Asia-Pacific Philanthropic Consortium. Government's declining role is opening up space for both business and the non-profit sector to expand. The market, not the government, is seen as the engine of development.

Most important is the prospect of pulling the government's sticky fingers out of certain pies, as that would diminish the proclivity for corruption. In the Philippines, for example, the opening up of major sectors such as banking and telecommunications has reduced the scope for graft. If democratic principles had been followed in Indonesia, cronyism may not have taken such a deeply rooted and menacing hold. And if India's government had kept its nose out of business and trade, petty corruption may not have so blighted that country's democracy. But there is hope. More public participation should heighten Asia's sense of the common good and democratic justice. And greater economic rewards should make it all the more worthwhile.

You are already late for work. You quickly log into your computer to check messages. A memo appears on your desktop that it's election day for Hong Kong's legislature, so you click into the voting website, pull up a ballot, mark your vote and add your signature, all electronically. Two minutes later, you're out the door. When you return home that evening, you log in again and check the government website for final election results. They were calculated swiftly, accurately - and with an 80% voter turnout.

Governments are now considering computerized voting. Its convenience is bound to boost the votes cast in an election, says a spokesman for Hong Kong's constitutional affairs bureau. In North America, people are already registering to vote by computer. U.S.-based Election Systems and Software Inc. says that besides Internet voting, people will eventually be casting ballots by telephone and interactive TV. Constituents can be virtually anywhere in the world and not miss an election.

Such new technologies can also be used to conduct electronic referendums on key issues. But some problems remain to be ironed out, notably authenticating ballots and maintaining confidentiality. Maybe a special pin number could be used for each individual, or "smart cards" issued with a magnetically encoded strip or hologram. There has been talk about using biometrics for authentication, including fingerprints, voice and eye scans. Solutions are likely to be found before long, certainly early in the new millennium.

WASHINGTON
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MANILA
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ALLAHABAD
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COLOMBO
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TOKYO
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BANGKOK
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TIME:

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THAILAND: Twin teenage warriors turn themselves in to Bangkok officials

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WEB-ONLY INTERVIEW: Jimmy Lai on feeling lucky -- and why he's committed to the island state

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TAIWAN: Party intrigues add to Chen Shui-bian's woes

JAPAN: Japan's ruling party crushes a rebel ì at a cost

SINGAPORE: Singaporeans need to have more babies. But success breeds selfishness

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