NO TIME TO WAIT FOR RESULTS

The tally is dealyed but the jockeying goes on

By Jose Manuel Tesoro / Jakarta

"I thought Indonesians were capable of sacrifice for the sake of the nation," says political scientist Andi Mallarangeng. That's what he believed when he joined the General Elections Commission (KPU) as one of five government representatives. By July 26, he might have been thinking differently. That night was supposed to mark the end of Indonesia's long wait for the results of the landmark June 7 parliamentary elections - the first step toward choosing the country's next president. But it was not to be. Courtesy of 31 small political parties, whose representatives refused or did not show up to ratify the results, the KPU was denied the two-thirds majority needed for the results to be legal. After seven weeks of watching the counting, Indonesians have to wait at least another week for the matter to be finally settled.

% OF VOTES

PDI-P 33.8

Golkar 22.5

PKB 12.6

PPP 10.7

PAN 7.1

Others 13.3

The fiasco was expected. Even before the polls, newborn political parties had been pressing for parliament spots that they couldn't get by election. Since each contesting party has a seat on the KPU, the small parties can more than make up for their political insignificance by exerting their majority on the commission. But the delay has not kept Indonesian politics at a standstill. The main presidential contestants have been furiously building up positions. The official release of the results, when it happens, will simply confirm the existence of four main camps - Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), President B.J. Habibie's ruling party Golkar, the military and political Islam.

Every seat counts in parliament, which will play a big part in electing the country's next president in November. (In addition to 462 elected members, the electoral college also consists of 38 military, 135 provincial and 65 sectoral representatives.) A good estimate of each party's acquired seats is already available. As predicted, Golkar has taken advantage of Indonesia's idiosyncratic election system, which determines party seats according to the proportion of votes each party wins in each province. Unpopular in Java and urban areas, Golkar still came in second with 24% of parliament because it did well in far-flung provinces, where fewer votes were required to gain a parliamentary seat. (In Irian Jaya, for example, 64,000 ballots were enough to earn a place, while parties campaigning in East Java had to win almost five times that many to get a seat.) Meanwhile, the Java-based tandem of Megawati's PDI-P and Abdurrahman Wahid's National Awakening Party (PKB) will find their 46% of the popular vote translated into just 41% of parliamentary seats. Although it came in fourth in number of popular votes, the Muslim-linked United Development Party (PPP) garnered third place in parliament through a vote-pooling agreement it signed with eight other Islamic parties before the election.

% OF SEATS (NO. OF SEATS)

PDI-P 30.8 (154)

Golkar 24.0 (120)

PKB 10.2 (51)

PPP 11.8 (59)

PAN 7.0 (35)

Others 8.6 (43)

Military 7.6 (38)

Source: KPU, Tempo

The gap between the PDI-P's expected 154 representatives and Golkar's 120 is not wide. And it looks even narrower now that Megawati's Muslim-tied allies, the PKB and the National Mandate Party (PAN), have demonstrated their independence. On July 24, four Muslim politicians formalized the results of over a month of closed-door negotiations: They established an Islam-tinged "alternative force" to the camps of Megawati and Habibie. Amien Rais, PAN's chair, dubbed this coalition of PAN, the PPP, the PKB and a clutch of small Muslim parties the "Middle Axis." He boasted to a local paper: "This will be able to defeat both the PDI-P and Golkar."

A united Islamic front could muster some 160 seats. That is not enough to determine the country's next leader, especially since the 200 delegates who will join parliament in the presidential selection have yet to be picked. (Many will come from provincial assemblies, where the PDI-P and Golkar are the top two parties.) But it should be enough to make the PDI-P, Golkar and the military sit up and take notice. Says a Jakarta-based diplomat: "Megawati is being outflanked." Although she is close to the Wahid, she has always treated Rais coolly. That the PKB's mercurial cleric and PAN's ambitious professor could cook up an Islamic force together means the PDI-P has not quite convinced them that their interests would be best served by letting her lead.

Can the Middle Axis hold? Habibie has often used his Muslim credentials in the past to his benefit, and his supporters are generous when it comes to buying political backing. The armed forces chief, Gen. Wiranto, whose name is oft-mentioned as a vice-presidential contender, may also deem the Axis a rival to the military in the presidential election. Three months remain before November's electoral-college meeting. In quicksilver Indonesian politics, that is an eternity.

- With reporting by Dewi Loveard / Jakarta

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