INDONESIA'S ELECTIONS

THE FIRST OFFICIAL DAY of election campaigning in Indonesia kicked off with parades through Jakarta, an uplifting cacophony of bright colors and roaring crowds. Spectators cheered as much for the sheer pageantry - heralding real democracy after four decades of stage-managed elections - as for the 48 rival political parties marching that day. But an attack on members of one party in particular reminded people that Indonesia remains volatile and that the coming poll goes beyond the selection of a parliament and, eventually, a president. Rocks, bottles and the party's own giveaway candies rained upon the yellow-bedecked parade floats of Golkar, the long-time ruling organization built by deposed strongman Suharto and backing President B.J. Habibie. Eventually, the mob forced Golkar campaigners and float drivers to flee.

Thankfully, that melee seemed to have been a sorry exception in the initial week of the 16-day election campaign. The June 7 national polls are to pick 462 members of the People's Representative Council (DPR), which forms the bulk of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) tasked with choosing the next president. Still, the attack on Golkar underscores the ever-present danger of violence in a land where animosity in society runs high and respect for government seriously low in many places. Without basic deference to authority, police and security forces would be hard-pressed to keep the peace in a population of 204 million.

There is no shortage of reasons for Indonesians to lose faith in their leaders. Since riots chased Suharto from power a year ago, the country has suffered to no end. Gross domestic product fell 13.7% in 1998, and the rupiah's value by more than a third, fueling inflation as imports became prohibitively expensive. The May 1998 riots, which hit Chinese Indonesians and their businesses especially hard, rocked the nation's distribution system of food and daily necessities. Sporadic ethnic and religious strife has erupted, from Aceh to Irian Jaya, Kalimantan to Ambon and East Timor. Economic restructuring stagnated under pressure from entrenched interests, many with links to Suharto. As for the ex-despot, there has been justified anger over the wealth that Time magazine reported he and his family piled up during their years in power.

However, the country cannot even begin to bandage its many wounds without a stable government with a solid mandate to rule. So while the election by itself won't fix Indonesia, it is an indispensable step toward restoring faith in authority. Assuming, of course, that the people accept the polls as fair and democratic - hardly a sure thing. Indeed, besides the likelihood of being violent, the election will not be entirely clean. Golkar, the wealthiest party, has the most to lose from a change in government. The temptation toward widespread vote-buying will run high. At the same time, blanket election monitoring will shed more light than ever on anomalies. Students, NGOs, up to a thousand international observers, and an unfettered press will all be watching.

Such scrutiny may well unearth more irregularities in this election than in previous ones - and make it easy to dismiss the exercise as a farce. But the stringent application of electoral standards to a first-time-in-decades free vote may be a mistake, especially if it undermines the new government from the start. Rather, realistic expectations may be in order, even though some think the turnout could go as high as 70% of registered voters. It would also be wrong to reject the election if Golkar wins. After all, the organization does enjoy ample support especially outside Java. More crucially, if losing parties are able to arbitrarily shoot down the election's credibility, it would further undercut government authority, delay sorely needed initiatives, and render Indonesia even more ungovernable - hardly a boon to anyone keen to take power.

Every contending group must realize that there is too much potential for unrest if losers choose to challenge the results out of spite. Moreover, there are too many threats and woes - from economic ruin to civil conflict - to waste time and make matters worse by trying to subvert the will of the people. Already, the timetable for selecting the president is seriously flawed. Under rules established by the Golkar-led DPR late last year, the MPR will not pick the next president until November. A five-month interregnum between the June 7 election and selection of the president offers too much opportunity for vote buying and horse-trading. The next DPR would do well to break with past practice and dramatically shorten the people's wait for a new leader with a fresh mandate.

Ironically, one big reason why Indonesia's future president and parliament have to really command the people's support through the polls is the certainty that life for millions of Indonesians will continue to look bleak for a long time to come. Besides the economy, there is continuing ethnic conflict, particularly in East Timor, where rival militias threaten to unleash civil war. Jusuf Wanandi, chairman of Jakarta's Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes one of the greatest dangers of the election comes from the public's high expectations: "Our people have to realize how tough it's going to be for the next five to 10 years." Only leaders with a genuine mandate can tell the painful truth and still retain the clout to bring the people out of their dire existence.