MINDANAO'S CHANCE

PRESIDENT JOSEPH ESTRADA is known for his fighting words. He's trying to change that. Estrada was supposed to meet Hashim Salamat, 62, the reclusive and soft-spoken leader of the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in Mindanao, the Philippines' southern island. The meeting, scheduled for Feb. 28, will be the first between the president and the head of the 14,000-strong MILF, which is demanding independence for more than three million Muslim Filipinos (about 17% of Mindanao's population). It is Estrada's first attempt at peacemaking with any of the rebels still fighting Manila. And it is taking place even though his top foreign affairs and defense advisers fret that the president is giving the extremist group more importance than it deserves.

The past month Estrada has received a crash course in negotiating tactics. When Estrada was told in January that the MILF wanted independence, he shot back: "Over my dead body. If they want war, we'll give them war." And then for 10 days, the military engaged the MILF in a series of bloody skirmishes that broke a 1997 ceasefire and turned the group's home base, Maguindanao province, into a no-man's land. About 60 people died, scores were wounded, and 90,000 residents were rendered homeless. In response, the MILF threatened jihad or holy war. They also hinted that the world's No. 1 terrorist, Osama bin Laden, had provided them with some financial assistance. If so, that raises the possibility that radicals could target Manila and other key urban areas. And no one can easily dismiss the fear of Islamic fundamentalism in Mindanao and the extremism that often comes with it. A peace agreement has never looked so necessary.

In Mindanao, the second-largest island in the Philippines, Muslims have been waging an on-again, off-again fight for independence for centuries. Since the early 1970s, an estimated 120,000 people have been killed and some $3 billion in damage has been wrought. In Ferdinand Marcos's time, half of the military's resources and personnel were deployed in Mindanao. Even now, Manila maintains 35,000 troops, 25,000 policemen and a 25,000-strong para-military unit on the island. "We are very much in control," says Defense Secretary Orlando Mercado. "We have proven this in the last encounter. When we hit [the MILF] hard, they ask for peace negotiations."

At the height of the fighting between government and rebel troops, Estrada suddenly decided he was willing to meet with the Cairo-educated MILF chairman. He summoned one of his advisers, Robert Aventajado, from a trip to the U.S. and dispatched him to Mindanao. Aventajado had a one-on-one talk with Salamat deep inside the MILF's sprawling main camp, Abubakar, in Maguindanao province on Feb. 4. They had lunch and then withdrew into Salamat's bedroom for coffee.

Aventajado told Salamat the president "intends to help the Muslim people in their economic development and in achieving social justice." Salamat replied: "We have not lost confidence in the national government in spite of the fighting." They agreed on two points: peace negotiations would proceed; and Salamat would meet the president, even somewhere other than the safe haven of Camp Abubakar. Aventajado says that Estrada and Salamat had to talk face-to-face "because a big amount of goodwill had been lost in 10 days of fighting."

The meeting comes at a time of great anxiety in Mindanao. On Feb. 17, communist New People's Army (NPA) guerrillas seized an army brigadier general and a captain outside of Davao City, in eastern Mindanao. The general is the highest-ranking officer ever to be abducted. On Feb. 24, the president halted peace talks with the NPA because of the kidnapping. In recent months, the group has revived its armed attacks after years of lying low. According to military intelligence, the NPA and the MILF have formed an alliance in southern Mindanao, where the rebel groups maintain camps in close proximity. They have supposedly agreed to conduct joint attacks and training exchanges and to share weapons.

Mindanao also has to contend with Abu Sayyaf, a MILF splinter group with strong radical leanings. The military says the two still are allies. But Salamat told Aventajado: "We don't have connections with [them]." Abu Sayyaf's leader, Abdurajak Abubakar Janjalani, once the Philippines' most-wanted man, was killed in a clash with government troops in mid-December. Now the rebels are seeking to avenge his death. On Jan. 2, at least 10 people died and more than 70 were wounded in a grenade explosion in Sulu province that was blamed on the Abu Sayyaf. Real peace is still a ways off in Mindanao.

The Estrada-Salamat discussion will focus on only two issues: how to hasten Mindanao's economic development and how to ensure the peaceful resolution of the conflict. In other words, "the demand for independence will not be discussed," says Aventajado. That leaves autonomy, which could be wide-ranging. "When you talk of autonomy, you talk of not only physical territory," says Aventajado, "you talk of things like shariah courts and [religious] schools. Autonomy is not a quick fix."

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