MINDANAO'S CHANCE

THERE IS ALREADY A MODEL for Manila to follow, but the MILF may not be interested. The government signed a peace agreement with Nurullaji "Nur" Misuari, chairman of the Moro National Liberation Front, in 1996. (Salamat had been Misuari's No. 2 until he broke away from the MNLF to form the MILF in 1978.) For a semblance of autonomy, Manila created the Southern Philippines Council for Peace and Development. Misuari was also elected governor of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), which comprises four of the island's provinces and about two million people. The MILF, however, rejected the peace agreement with Manila and continued its armed struggle. The MILF is still skeptical of the deal. "It is a weak form of autonomy," sneers Ghazali Jaafar, MILF vice chairman for political affairs. "It cannot solve the Muslim problem. The greater majority of people no longer believe in the autonomous government."

Estrada may have a better chance of winning over the MILF with his development promises. He has proposed several mega-projects in Mindanao's Muslim areas. They are, or will be, supervised by Aventajado, who is also the chairman of the Southern Philippines Development Authority. The projects include: a $266-million sugar mill and refinery to be completed by 2001; a $69-million irrigation program; a $200-million 2-km bridge that would connect the Christian province of Misamis Occidental to the Muslim province of Lanao del Norte; a 1,400-km railroad that would circle the entire island of Mindanao; and the integration of an already existing airport and seaport into a single port authority. Salamat likes the idea of these projects, says Jaafar, "as long as they will benefit the residents of the area and will not displace them."

Although Mindanao produces 25% of the nation's rice and 70% of its corn, the island's economic prospects are uncertain. There are other natural resources - gold, timber, oil - but they have not been put to good use. A slow-moving political system seems to have gotten in the way. Consider where Misuari, the rebel-turned-administrator, stands now. He has been in office for two-and-a-half years, but the ARMM has little to show for it. No big infrastructure projects are anywhere near completion. From 1990 to 1999, Manila allotted some $600 million for the autonomous region. Misuari has a 1999 budget of $111 million; most of that, he claims, will go to pay the region's 19,000 employees. "We cannot do anything," he says. "We have to put up with it [the bureaucracy]."

As for the Southern Philippines Council for Peace and Development, once the great hope for Mindanao, Misuari says: "The SPCPD was supposed to be a dynamic institution. At the end, they [opponents of the SPCPD led by Mindanao's Christian congressmen] changed their mind. They went to the Supreme Court to question the SPCPD. And so the peace agreement has been victimized." Misuari says that Manila has delayed dispersing some money because of local opposition to the council. The only other source of money is the United Nations; its funds, says Misuari, go to council salaries.

In mid-February, the Philippine Senate took the unprecedented step of forming a seven-member oversight committee for Mindanao. "We want to know what's going on in the region," says Sen. Rodolfo Biazon, author of the resolution. "We want to know whether the ARMM and the SPCPD are the pacifiers or the milk." He adds: "If Misuari has proven that the ARMM cannot work, then it might not be the correct structure to solve Mindanao's problems. Misuari may not be at fault, the structure of ARMM itself [may be]."

Meanwhile, Misuari has apparently been marginalized in the government's efforts to seek a peace agreement with the MILF. Does he approve of Salamat's decision to meet Estrada? "I don't want to comment on the affairs of my brothers in the MILF," Misuari says. As the fighting raged in January, the governor was silent. He didn't try to exert his influence over his former comrades-in-arms. "It is war between the government and the MILF," he says. "I hope people will understand that it is not even my duty to intervene between those two forces." But Misuari says that he did prevent his MNLF soldiers from attacking a state power plant with the MILF. The MNLF also wanted to join in raids in Davao City and the Caraga region, he claims. But, says Misuari: "I called on my brothers not to join the effort." That counts as progress in Mindanao these days.