Recession waiting for the other shoe to drop

Hong Kong vs. Singapore The rivalry continues

Schoolmaster Teo Chee Hean tackles education

Developer Lim Hng Kiang on Singapore's future

Brightest & Best The lowdown on Singapore's up-and-comers

HOW HAS SINGAPORE MANAGED to navigate the Asian financial crisis with so little damage compared with its neighbors? A key factor is "the quality of its leadership," says Mark Daniell, the Singapore-based managing director of consultants Bain & Co. And he is not just referring to the top tier comprised of Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong and his senior cabinet colleagues. He also means the next generation of leaders, all of them in their 40s, who have entered the government in the past 15 years.

Of course, Singapore has long been noted for the attention it gives to attracting the best and brightest of each generation into public service. The fact that government officials are so well paid (PM Goh earns about 10 times the salary of his Malaysian counterpart, for example) certainly has contributed to that quality - sometimes, it is said, to the detriment of the private sector. In any case, capable stewardship has helped the island republic avoid much of the devastation suffered by Southeast Asia.

By now the path to the top is well-established. It is highly competitive, highly meritorious with a strong emphasis on education and brain power. Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew, the republic's founding premier, once worried out loud that some of the younger generation of ministers lacked the street-smarts of the nation-builders and didn't hold their own in parliamentary debate with opposition party members. Less is heard about that since the parliamentary opposition, never very large, has been reduced to a rump.

Candidates destined for bigger things typically win a top government scholarship. The best become President's Scholars. This prestigious award is given to just a handful of the most promising university-bound students each year, and clearly marks them from the start as up-and-comers. All four of the leaders in this survey won this seal of approval. And all studied engineering.

Their training continues, usually with government or armed forces support, at prestigious international graduate schools. Very often they are alumni of either Harvard University in the U.S. or Cambridge in Britain (where Senior Minister Lee also studied). Minister for Information and the Arts George Yeo went to both, earning a double first from Cambridge and a Masters of Business Administration from Harvard as a Baker scholar.

The other common element is service, usually in a high-ranking capacity, in the armed forces. Military service is compulsory in Singapore, which considers this a key element in building a sense of nationhood and operates on the principle that every (male) citizen can be called on to defend the country. Two of the next-generation leaders reached flag rank: Rear Admiral Teo Chee Hean commanded Singapore's navy, while Brig. Gen. George Yeo was head of staff in the air force. Lim Hng Kiang also held important command and staff positions.

In the next and final stage of the grooming process, the future leader enters Parliament as a member for the ruling People's Action Party (PAP). Usually, a safe seat is found (the PAP has a lot of them), although Teo's first trial by electoral fire in 1992 commanded special attention. It was a by-election, and as a protégé of the prime minister, Teo carried the burden of demonstrating Goh's popularity. Teo has since become a good campaigner in his own right, garnering a 70% majority on his group ticket in the 1997 general election.

Those identified for the fast-track by PAP's core leaders don't have to worry about languishing on the backbenches. Most receive junior ministerial posts, sometimes more than one, virtually from the moment they enter Parliament. Teo quickly took on junior portfolios in finance, communications and defense. He moved into the cabinet as environment minister, and last year assumed the critical portfolio of education. Yeo and Lim are also cabinet members, while David Lim, though first elected to Parliament only last year, holds the same status as the number two in the ministry of defense.

Such similar resumes might make one think that all of Singapore's next-generation leaders are cut from the same mold. But for all the similarities in pedigree, this generation of leadership does exhibit some differences in personality. George Yeo, for example, is seen as an intellectual, while Lim Hng Kiang, the minister of national development, is very much a nuts-and-bolts administrator. The newest of the group, David Lim, has a reputation as a blunt-speaking man who is nonetheless open to opposing views.

Of the four men, Teo's career stands out as perhaps the most promising. In addition to sheer intellectual prowess, he appears to have a common touch and some charisma. For a career naval officer, he quickly became an adept politician, popular both with constituents and his superiors in the senior ranks of the PAP. The excitement Teo generates when he visits schools as part of his education responsibilities goes beyond the polite curiosity normally accorded high government officials.

George Yeo's star, on the other hand, appears to be fading. Certainly, he has served in government longer than most of his next-generation peers. Yeo was first elected to Parliament in 1988 and has been Minister for Information and the Arts since 1991. The ministry is considered an important one but not as critical as, say, foreign affairs. He has held other junior positions and in 1994 he was given an additional portfolio as health minister.

But Yeo lost the ministerial post after a less-than-stellar performance in the 1997 general election, during which he was laid low by a bout of the measles. He took on the second-ranked position at the Ministry of Trade and Industry, which was seen as a demotion. However, this may only be a temporary setback. An internationalist in outlook, he is sometimes touted as a future foreign minister (he has held the second-ranked post). One rare deficiency given the preferred brand of diplomacy among ASEAN neighbors: Yeo admits to being a poor golfer.

David LIM Tik En

Age: 43

Education: University of Melbourne; National University of Singapore

Experience: Head of Economic Development Board (EDB) in North America. CEO of the Jurong Town Corporation. Now, Minister of State for Defense and chairman of the National Computer Board.

Prospects: He's hot. With international experience, he epitomizes the outward-looking, tech-savvy minister. Lacks political exposure.

LIM Hng Kiang

Age: 44

Education: Cambridge; Harvard

Experience: CEO of the Housing and Development Board. Key post in Foreign Affairs. National Development Minister and now, Second Minister for Finance.

Prospects: A future Finance Minister? Said to be ambitious, but less impressive in "people skills."

TEO Chee Hean

Age: 43

Education: University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology; Imperial College of London; Harvard

Experience: Chief of Navy and rear admiral. Key Defense posts. Minister for the Environment. Now, Second Minister for Defense and, more importantly, Minister for Education.

Prospects: Man to watch as one who can convey the government's big vision. Some believe he may succeed Goh if BG Lee is out.

George YEO Yong Boon

Age: 44

Education: Cambridge; Harvard

Experience: Former Minister of State for Finance and Senior Minister of State for Foreign Affairs. Currently, Minister for Information and the Arts and Second Minister for Trade and Industry.

Prospects: Once the brightest star of the next generation, Yeo is now regarded as something of a morning glory.