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Web-only Exclusives
November 30, 2000

From Our Correspondent: Hirohito and the War
A conversation with biographer Herbert Bix

From Our Correspondent: A Rough Road Ahead
Bad news for the Philippines - and some others

From Our Correspondent: Making Enemies
Indonesia needs friends. So why is it picking fights?

Asiaweek Time Asia Now Asiaweek story

FIGHTING TO STAY RELEVANT

Politics could sidetrack APEC's agenda

By Alejandro Reyes


Malaysia The Trial commences

At a glance The Anwar trial - facts and figures

Movements The case for and against gays in Malaysia

Media How fair is the local coverage?

IN VANCOUVER LAST YEAR, the Asian Crisis and protesting activists stole the show. This month in Kuala Lumpur, the same is likely to happen. The economic turmoil, still troubling East Asia and now threatening Latin America and the U.S., will be the main discussion topic at the sixth summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. And the controversial trial of former Malaysian deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim could lead to street protests as his supporters try to embarrass Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad during the Nov. 12-18 meeting. APEC's free-trade agenda may get lost in the shuffle.

In fact, media coverage could be scant for fresh liberalization initiatives and deeper commitments by members to meet their goal of free trade and investment (by 2010 for developed economies and 2020 for developing ones). Even the arrival of three new members - Russia, Vietnam and Peru - may barely rate a mention. When the 21 national leaders convene, the cameras will focus on Mahathir. Body-language analysts will watch closely as he meets two new kids on the block: Philippine President Joseph E. Estrada and Indonesian leader B.J. Habibie. Claiming friendship with Anwar, both had broken the longstanding ASEAN convention of non-intervention and threatened to boycott the APEC meeting. They later backtracked, but not before straining their nations' ties with Malaysia. U.S. President Bill Clinton has called his trip unofficial, and he will not meet Mahathir for bilateral talks.

Mahathir said last week that it would not be appropriate for Estrada to meet Anwar in custody during the APEC summit, as that might "intimidate the courts," though the Philippine leader could do so "at some other time." Indeed, with the forum's economic focus, officials expect the summit to underscore members' resolve to advance their ambitious free-trade program despite the Crisis. "It is essential to send the right signal to investors," said Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong. "APEC countries must continue their commitment to trade liberalization."

The summit's chief aim will be to deal with the Crisis and the threat of global recession. "Leaders will recognize the need for pro-growth policies to relieve the social pressures and political reaction to reform," says John Wolf, U.S. ambassador to APEC. "Hopefully, too, they will stress that the path toward renewed growth is one that builds on opening markets and competing internationally." Participants are likely to discuss uses for the $30 billion in aid Japan promised Asia, as well as trade financing to break export bottlenecks created by a regionwide lack of liquidity.

Last year in Vancouver, Mahathir was privately ridiculed for his attacks on the dangers of speculative funds. Now, short-term capital flows and how they can cause Crisis contagion are a central concern. Malaysia has long been skeptical of the APEC process. Mahathir himself boycotted the first summit in Seattle five years ago. He said that the U.S., backed by Australia, was merely using APEC to open up Asian markets for American companies. Since then, Malaysia has consistently fought to make the group's commitments flexible and non-binding. As this year's chair, Kuala Lumpur has skirted major new initiatives and pushed Mahathir's stand on the need to curb capital flows.

The Crisis has raised the stakes for APEC. "It has revealed weaknesses in regional and global institutions," says Roberto Romulo, international chairman of the APEC-affiliated Pacific Economic Cooperation Council. "Some people are questioning [the forum's] relevance. APEC was conceptualized in the context of growth. Unfortunately, the virtuous cycle of the past has been replaced by a vicious cycle. APEC must now focus on solutions, not process."

Doubts are growing that the Kuala Lumpur summit will achieve much, given the distracted Malaysian leadership and the bilateral tensions that surfaced recently within ASEAN, APEC's core. Last year, the Southeast Asians had to fight to get the Crisis on the table. That won't be the case this year, now that the contagion has touched even the U.S. Says Romulo: "The Crisis has shown that there is an Asia-Pacific region. But the responses have largely been national. A regional crisis requires a regional response."

That may prove elusive. "We're looking to New Zealand [venue of next year's summit] to regain momentum," says a member of the APEC Business Advisory Council, which advises leaders on the concerns of business people. "The New Zealanders are preparing like crazy." Indeed, if this year's distractions get the better of APEC, members will have to count on Auckland to revive the cause.


This edition's table of contents | Asiaweek home

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