INDONESIA'S FLASHPOINT

In truth, it did not take extraordinary prescience to predict growing trouble for Indonesia and its president if they cannot meet the most basic needs of citizens. Since July, food shortages have become worse. Food riots are breaking out in many parts of Java. Looters have ransacked storage houses. People are tearing up golf courses to plant food. And local government has broken down in some areas. In his four months in office, Habibie has failed to inspire with his crisis management, raising doubts about his staying power. That is not necessarily comforting, not least because there are no obviously credible replacements.

Self-sufficiency in rice was one of Indonesia's proudest boasts under the Suharto regime. The achievement has proven surprisingly evanescent. This year the country may have to import more than 4 million tons, or a fifth of the amount normally traded on commercial terms worldwide. Indonesia may also be on the receiving end of increasing amounts of food aid, assuming the world can focus sufficiently on its woes. Indeed, it is remarkable how little attention, outside the immediate neighborhood, has been paid to the tragedy that is unfolding in the country. Its plight is worse than Russia's, yet the latter commands far greater global attention.

Concern that is mustered about Indonesia tends to center on political reform: efforts to rewrite the Constitution, organize elections, solve the problems of East Timor and other restless regions, and curb corruption. All that is important, of course. But nothing is more urgent now than food security. If Indonesia's civilian leaders are unable to stave off hunger, social unrest is likely to erupt on a large scale. And that could bring about not only untold devastation, but also the military dictatorship that everyone fears.

Food Minister A.M. Saefuddin maintains that Indonesia has sufficient rice stocks to tide things over. Even if he is right, it is clear that the price of rice, which has tripled in a year, is rapidly exceeding the ability of the people to pay for it. The reasons are many. The fall in the rupiah's value has made necessary inputs, such as imported pesticides and fertilizer, much more expensive. The official procurement price is now too low to encourage farmers to sell to the government. They prefer to hoard. The weather phenomenon El Niño, which induced drought throughout the nation, only made things worse.

Still, most of the problems are man-made. The distribution system seems to have broken down in many parts of Indonesia, though dark rumors about the culpability of fleeing ethnic Chinese, who often function as traders and middle men, have not been borne out. Under Suharto, corruption was endemic in the State Logistics Agency (Bulog), the rice distributor. The problem is belatedly being addressed by his successor, who recently removed Bulog chief Beddu Amang.

Jakarta faces an array of daunting economic and political challenges. It must not allow itself to be distracted from giving priority attention to the basics of food, notably its production, pricing and equitable distribution. Authorities could consider placing the distribution of rice in the hands of the army, which perhaps alone possesses the necessary infrastructure. If the military proves it can do the job without lining its own pockets, it can also boost its own tattered image at a time when it has to maintain law and order. Certainly, the generally exemplary behavior of the Chinese People's Liberation Army in recent flood-fighting reaped it a publicity windfall.

International parties should do what they can to help. Organizations such as the World Bank and the IMF could provide Jakarta with additional grants or low-cost loans for rice purchases. Japan and the U.S. should increase the amount of the grain they send Indonesia as aid. If necessary, even rice loans should be considered. For its part, Jakarta can help other governments and international institutions arrive at such decisions more easily by making distribution channels more efficient and less prone to corruption.

In these trying times, it is especially important that leaders provide genuine leadership. Habibie has often been rendered overly cautious - and ineffective - by his lack of political legitimacy. But he need not hold back on a self-evidently positive cause such as combating starvation. Indeed, both he and the Indonesian military have an opportunity to burnish their leadership credentials by taking decisive action to ensure that Indonesians are properly fed. But the authorities will need to move quickly - before rising hunger, despair and anger make their task an impossible one.