IN FOR A ROUGH RIDE

Fortunately for Chuan, 59, he is backed by a strong cast, not least the experienced economic team led by Deputy Prime Minister Supachai Panichpakdi and Finance Minister Tarrin Nimmanhaeminda. There was a further psychological boost at the end of December when respected former PM Anand Panyarachun, currently chairman of a think-tank, agreed to lend his expertise and clout in formulating medium- and long-term development goals. He and two former Thai ambassadors to Washington, Kasem Kasemsri and Arsa Sarasin, may also use their contacts to try to solicit aid and investment from the U.S.

It was in July last year that Bangkok devalued the baht, setting off a chain reaction that has Southeast Asian currencies in free fall. On the surface, the diminutive, self-effacing Chuan may not seem to be the kind of inspiring figure who could lead the country out of its worst economic crisis in decades. Despite a clean image -- partly reinforced by his modest living style -- Chuan was labeled slow and indecisive during his first stint in office, which ended in July 1995 after a key coalition partner pulled out during a parliamentary confidence debate.

Abhisit says that two years in the opposition wilderness have enabled Chuan to mature politically. "Having been in and out of power, he has acquired many different perspectives and angles that allow him to see things in a much more diverse way," he says. Abhisit adds that the party itself has also changed for the better. "To be fair, the first time Chuan and the Democrats were in power, there was hardly any time for preparation," he says. "This time round we have the experience, we know what the issues are, we have seen two successive governments handle things in different ways, so we know exactly what we have to do."

Ordinary Thais seem to agree and so far have shown remarkable patience and support. Rather than protest against the tough economic conditions, they have rallied around the government in a show of solidarity, even donating gold and money in a touching effort to pay off the $17.2- billion IMF bailout. The six-party ruling coalition Chuan's Democrats lead is pretty much united, unlike previous such governments. The opposition, always a highly critical bunch, has been unusually quiet over the past few months (partly, it must be said, due to having to deal with their own internal wranglings).

"The people have faith that this government will conduct itself along the principles of good governance," the PM told Asiaweek. Adds Cathay Capital analyst Youssef el-Khouri Abboud: "The most important thing [Chuan] and his government have achieved is a feeling of confidence." Not enough to stanch the currency slide, though.

Paradoxically, the economic crisis has been a blessing of sorts, providing Chuan with the pretext to make some fast, tough decisions -- such as closing down 56 of 58 suspended finance companies -- which under normal circumstances would have been difficult to do. Says Abhisit: "There is a clear sense of emergency allowing him to move a lot faster."

And move faster he must. Chuan may have the support of the public for now, but he is living on borrowed time. Multinationals are downsizing and reworking their operations, and many local firms are facing serious liquidity problems due to high interest rates and the reluctance of banks to hand out loans. For small businessmen, interest rates of 28% or more are the norm. "Most banks just say no," says one disgruntled Bangkok entrepreneur seeking a loan for a new shop.

Unions have warned of massive protests if the government fails to address growing unemployment and other labor issues. For this reason, Rob Collins of Asia Equity feels that fresh polls should be held sooner rather than later. "If they had an election this year, they could come back with a stronger mandate," he says. "But by the middle of next year, with so many unemployed, the blame will start falling on Chuan's shoulders."

Some see the seeds of grave unrest in the current difficulties. "In three to six months it will get worse," says democracy activist Weng Tojirakarn. "If people have nothing to eat and wear, and cannot send their children to school, it is hard to imagine what will happen." Others disagree, pointing to the social structure, as well as the stoic character of many Thais. "Agriculture plays a big role [in Thai society]," says Cathay Capital's Abboud. "Faced with a dearth of jobs in the cities, many people will just return to work their land." Whichever way, it will be hard work.