The G.O.P. party crasher upset the plans for
a Bush coronation. Can he sustain his amazing surge once the
Empire strikes back?
By Nancy Gibbs, with James Carney, John F. Dickerson and Michael
February 7, 2000
Web posted at: 12:54 p.m. EST (1754 GMT)
If you are a rebel who draws strength from fighting for a lost
cause, it can take a little time to get used to the idea of a
And if you are a prince who carries his own pillow as a
defense against cheap hotel linen and an army of retainers as a
defense against anyone who might try to storm the castle, it can
take a little time to get used to being tossed into the moat.
So both John McCain and George W. Bush have some adjustments to
make, as the prince and the pauper change clothes. McCain
wouldn't allow himself a smile in his New Hampshire hotel suite
on primary day, sitting tightly through the afternoon briefing
with his aides, looking as if he'd been stapled to the chair.
Campaign chairman Rick Davis knew what was on everyone's mind:
not that McCain might lose the election but that he might win.
"Tomorrow will be different when you wake up," said Davis. "You
will be scrutinized like a President."
It was Mark Salter, the writer who is nearly as close to the
candidate as any of McCain's children, who delivered the good
news that the Arizona Senator might be not just winning but
winning huge--men and women, young and old, wild-eyed libertarian
independents and bluenosed conservative Republicans.
"This could have implications," McCain deadpanned.
"Yes," responded Salter. "Like you could be President."
Bush was in a hotel room too, a couple of towns away, surrounded
by aides and exit polls and excuses. He reassured his tiny inner
circle that no heads would roll, but he wanted some answers:
"What the hell happened?" He was stunned by the size of his
loss--and furious that his team not only had failed to prevent it
but had failed even to predict it. As she thought about it the
next morning, communications chief Karen Hughes admitted she
should have known something was wrong when she heard there were
more out-of-state volunteers in the Bush New Hampshire operation
than in-state volunteers. "I should have trusted my instincts,"
New Hampshire has always been useful less for picking winners--ask
almost-Presidents Buchanan, Tsongas and Hart--than for chastening
losers, stripping them bare, exposing the phonies, humbling the
pundits, rewarding the pirates and generally leaving the
impression that the voters might actually have some role to play
in deciding who gets to be President. Even so, no one was
prepared for what happened to American politics last week.
A man almost no Republican in Washington likes, John McCain,
suddenly stood a chance to grab the party's nomination from the
well-liked, well-named Governor of Texas. The 18-point New
Hampshire crevasse had swallowed up the party that had been
sliding along blithely since the failure of the Contract with
America, the fall of the House of Gingrich and the nightmare of
impeachment. Outside the bubbles of Washington and Austin, the
true threat that McCain posed to Bush was abundantly clear. One
runs on candor and fumes; the other hides in the motorcade. One
takes a punch and looks stronger; the other throws a punch and
looks weaker. One seems to delight in crashing the party; the
other drapes the Republican establishment around his neck like a
But more basically, McCain has managed to dig into the rich and
unsettled lobe of the American psyche that, in the shadow of
impeachment and in the arms of prosperity, wants nothing more
from politics than for something good to happen. Some have called
it a tide, but it's almost an ache, not so much about anything
specific as about everything in general. When the voters finally
spoke last week, they all but said they want the national
conversation to be civil and square, not empty or jaded, and they
want a leader who will explain what he wants to do and level with
them when he gets it wrong.
This was the campaign Bush set out to run, with that talk of
restoring the dignity of the office--and McCain is beating him at
his own game. "People want to elect a statue," observes Oklahoma
Governor Frank Keating, a devout Bush backer. "They want a hero,
an unblemished and unvarnished guy in the White House. They don't
want to revisit the agony of the past eight years. Bush has to
show his character is unvarnished and unblemished." But he's
going to have to get past McCain to do it.
"Fine mess you've gotten me into, Weaver," snapped McCain in jest
to the 40-year-old political director who first went to McCain in
February 1997 to persuade him to run. As word of McCain's rout
spread, family members drifted into his suite; children ran
between the sofas and chairs, grazing the tables, spilling their
Shirley Temples. McCain's daughter Sidney spun youngest son Jimmy
as if they were doing the lindy hop. When the networks finally
called the race, Cindy's hands flew to her mouth, and her eyes
filled; the aides let out a cheer. McCain hugged his wife tightly
but did not smile. This was going to take some getting used to.
By the time McCain heard the official results, he had been
practicing his acceptance speech off and on for three hours.
"Slow, slow, slow," he said to himself as he paced in his suite,
as if he were preparing to deliver a eulogy rather than frame the
meaning of this moment. This was not a time for whooping or
wisecracks; a lot of the country was going to be seeing him for
the first time, and he needed to look like a Man Who Could Be
President. "The only other speech that will be more important
will be his acceptance speech at the convention," said his
California coordinator, Ken Khachigian, who was traveling with
the campaign through New Hampshire and South Carolina.
The goal was to take the reform message that had played so well
in the boutique politics of New Hampshire and ramp it up into a
national crusade. Reform had to mean more than McCain's trademark
campaign-finance agenda; now it would mean a new kind of party, a
new kind of politics with a new kind of leader. "They said there
wasn't room for reform in the Republican Party," said McCain,
resurrecting a line from his announcement speech. "Well, we've
Well, maybe. By morning, the money was flooding in over the
Internet--nearly a million dollars by the next night--and 12,000
people signed up to volunteer all over the country. Donations
were coming in at such a furious pace that the campaign had to
find a second server to handle the overflow. Israeli and Japanese
television were on lines two and three. "My folks and supporters
have never been as well treated as they have in the past 24
hours," joked McCain. "People have found our phone numbers that
have been lost for years." Even Republican Party chief Jim
Nicholson, long an outspoken critic of McCain's crusade to ban
soft money, called with congratulations.
To the Republican barons who say McCain is out to destroy the
G.O.P., he replies that he intends to save it. If Bush is
campaigning as the champion of the status quo sentries of
Washington, McCain is trying to turn them all out in the street
and build a whole new bigger house, just as Bill Clinton did for
the Democrats eight years ago. Which just raises the question: Is
this for real, or is this a Jesse Ventura moment, all fun and
feathers and wild surprise but not the kind of earthquake that
redraws the continents?
For the moment, at least, it's both, as was clear when McCain
climbed back onto his plane and headed down to South Carolina,
where he was met at 3 a.m. in an airport hangar by hundreds of
college kids and the earsplitting techno sounds of Fat Boy Slim.
Bomba dada boomba ba went the music. It nearly parted your hair.
Signs were waved and bodies were hopping on the concrete floor.
It was as if this father of seven, who spent 5 1/2 years in a
prison camp during a war that was over before most of the
revelers were born, were on the cover of Rolling Stone. "He is
the last hero of American politics," said Brandon Goeringer, 22,
who drove in early from Greenville to get a good spot near the
stage. "I don't agree with all of his policies, on abortion and
other stuff, but he tells the truth."
"I like his position on the military," said doe-eyed Anne Marie
McNeil, 18, of the University of South Carolina. "And I like that
he is paying down the debt and not spending it all on Social
Security." This is from someone who has never voted before? "The
fact that we're all still here till 3 o'clock and we have school
tomorrow should say something."
That night and over the next several days in South Carolina, as
McCain's events just got bigger and bigger, the very size of the
crowd was sending a message. More than a third of the online
donors had never given money to a campaign before. At a town hall
in Beaufort, the sign-in sheets that usually get a few signatures
per event were crumpled from the compression of so many pens. The
McCain team planned for 250 at a Georgetown fire station, and
1,000 turned out, climbing up to sit on fire trucks and on
ladders propped against the wall and spilling into the street.
"There's something a little bit magical going on," said McCain on
the bus afterward, looking dazed by the crowd. "There's something
happening out there."
Even before the results were in from New Hampshire, McCain was
raising his game to a more professional level. The freewheeling
press salons that used to take place unchaperoned by any campaign
aides are now more structured. Strategist Mike Murphy sits at
McCain's right hand, playing hall monitor by clarifying positions
and editing possible missteps the candidate might make. Murphy is
a bottomless pit of tall tales and campaign spin who can spell
the candidate from having to provide round-the-clock sound bites
Lines are discussed in afternoon debriefing sessions and then
incorporated into the evening events. "A click more on Clinton,"
says Murphy in South Carolina, after a day's worth of events in
which McCain has already turned up his bashing of the
Administration. As the expected attacks come from Bush, aides
warn McCain not to bite. "Let us handle him," says Murphy. McCain
must stay presidential, above the fracas.
It took George Bush a while just to realize he'd been shot. His
aides had been relentlessly smug about his prospects coming out
of Iowa. He was so confident in the final strategy sessions that
when New Hampshire veterans like Judd Gregg and Tom Rath urged
Bush to slap McCain around a little, cut a negative ad comparing
McCain to Clinton and slot it into the weekend rotation, they ran
into a wall. Like his dad fending off Bob Dole in 1988, "W" was
resistant, but unlike his dad, he wouldn't be budged. One reason:
"W" believed he was gaining strength and didn't feel the need to
get nasty. "It was a principal problem," said a big fund raiser,
using the antiseptic, military language of the White House. "It's
in his genes. They had to beg his old man to put up an ad 12
years ago, but 'W' didn't want to do it."
Rath thought McCain was getting a free ride. "The question is
whether we should have defined him earlier," Rath recalls. "One
of the reasons you couldn't introduce any contrary evidence on
him was because he had become St. John. It was too late." And
Bush was adamant: the whole point of their strategy--of building
the unprecedented war chest and collecting all the
endorsements--was to get so far out in front that there would be
no need to lurch to the right or engage in intraparty fratricide.
"Our object is to win a nomination that is worth having," said
Bush's chief strategist, Karl Rove. Go negative now, and you lose
So instead Bush went snowmobiling. And sledding. And bowling. On
the last day before the vote, his schedule broke down completely.
"If your candidate's principal perception problem is that he
lacks gravitas," complained a Bush donor, "why be seen playing
with children?" It was less a campaign than a parade, and one
that he didn't always seem to be enjoying much. Aides whispered
that he was homesick. He hadn't engaged with the voters, hadn't
settled into the lumpy sofas in their living rooms with a cup of
watery coffee or stood in their meeting halls patiently listening
to their concerns and answering their questions. Emily Mead, who
worked in the Bush White House before returning to New Hampshire
to run a small policy think tank, saw it coming. She'd even sent
a warning note to Barbara Bush, who wrote back that she would
pass it on. "Three months went by, and he was hardly here at
all," said Mead. "You can't run a campaign like that and expect
He left the impression that maybe this was the hardest thing he
had ever done--and he still was taking weekends off. Even as
McCain bounced along the back roads clearly having a blast,
breaking rules, insulting voters and reporters and staff members
with glee, Bush was doing half the work with twice the effort.
Maybe this wasn't exactly what he signed on for, when all those
delegations were flying down to Austin and begging him to be the
savior of the party. Now he had to do the begging, explain why
someone who brags that he never wanted to be President actually
deserves to be.
To win over the coddled voters of New Hampshire, it was not
enough to ride into town whistling Hail to the Chief, followed by
an entourage that included nearly as many clean-cut men and women
talking into their sleeves as you'd expect to see when the real
President came to town. There were rope lines and security sweeps
and hard-bodied guys with sunglasses and bulges from the holsters
under their suit coats who kept the crowds at bay and glared at
anyone who looked like a trouble-maker. Bush would shake hands
and sign autographs endlessly after one of his speeches, but he
wouldn't engage in any kind of serious talk. "How ya' doin?" and
"Thanks for your support!" and "I appreciate it!" sufficed for
Bush even suffered from the beauty of his speeches; even when
they didn't say much, they said it well--so well that the words
seemed not his own. Especially when his genetic estrangement from
the language poked through the script. Bush liked to joke that
anyone in the audience who planned on voting for one of what he
called his "erstwhile opponents" should refrain from voting more
than once. It took weeks before Bush figured out that he didn't
mean to say "erstwhile" but "worthwhile." Then there were the
"tacular weapons" and the worry that single moms have about
"putting food on their family."
To the extent that either of the two contenders had a message,
McCain's was working better. Bush took it as gospel that He Who
Promises the Bigger Tax Cut Wins. His $483 billion plan was
supposed to trump the cautious McCain, who talked more about
paying down the debt than paying off the voters. But he hadn't
bargained on pinch-fisted Yankees like the man at the Nashua
Chamber of Commerce breakfast who stood up and punctured the
theory. "I'm tired of all this tax-cut nonsense," the questioner
told the Governor. "Can we stop it, please?" To which Bush
replied, "I don't believe it's nonsense. I'm not gonna drop my
plan. If the heat gets on, I'm gonna keep to it. If you like it,
I'm gonna take it to Congress. If you don't like it, you can send
me home to Texas."
Bush likes to say that kind of thing. "I don't really care what
the polls say; I'm not a poll-driven politician," he said later
the same day. "If people don't agree, that's all right. We'll go
fishin' in Texas." But what once sounded charmingly normal--I can
take this or leave this--was starting to sound arrogant. When he
appeared Saturday afternoon in Milford with brothers and sister
and parents in tow, at an event in, of all perfect places, an
indoor tennis club, wearing a Texas Rangers jacket with an
imperial gold star on the chest like the kind Presidents wear on
Air Force One, it had all the trappings of a coronation.
I feel something in the air," he said, not taking the time to
identify exactly what. In maybe two minutes of halting remarks,
his parents referred to "W" three times as their "boy"--"This boy,
this son of ours, is not going to let you down," said the father.
There was a hug, a tear in the son's eye, but "W" said little
besides "Work hard; call your friends." Then he exited stage
left. Many were turned away, and others who made it in were
stunned by the brevity and vacancy of the whole thing. "That was
really bad," said a longtime Bush family aide, leaving the event.
So, suddenly, the waltz to the nomination had become a rumble,
not with an unelectable nuisance like Steve Forbes but with an
unpredictable and utterly viable Republican named John McCain. In
public, Bush remained gracious, and sanguine. "I understand this
is a long process," he said as he flew south from the snows.
"I've seen presidential campaigns; I've seen the good moments of
them, and I've seen the bad moments. And Senator McCain is having
a good moment." And now it was up to Bush to make sure McCain had
a few bad ones.
"He's the Washington, D.C., person. I've got to do a better job
of defining that," mused Bush, trying to figure out where he went
wrong. "He's the man who's the head of the committees. He's the
person that interests come and, ya know, make their claim in his
committees. So there's a lot of things I need to do to make it
clear to people there are differences." But even in the valley of
the shadow of death, Bush was talking strategy, not message. He
was telling the world that he needed to define his opponent and
to show the contrast. So much for moving into substance and
staying optimistic. It was reminiscent of his father declaring in
New Hampshire in 1992, "Message: I care."
It didn't help that all around him his army was in a panic. The
party faithful lost their nerve in reliable degree and
predictable order. Breathing most heavily were the money guys,
the ones with a herd mentality and the deepest, longest
commitment to Bush. They had bought Bush shares early, like a hot
Internet IPO. They'd bet heavily on a brand name, even though
there was no guarantee of revenues or income; they had imagined
years of dividends in the form of jobs, favors and paybacks and
now were looking at an ugly balance sheet.
The nervous Cassandras of the House fell in line behind them, for
many had signed up with Bush right behind their benefactors. The
Hill guys, all facing election this fall, had been watching Bush,
had noticed his promise but had not missed the inexperience
either. At a retreat last week of about 150 House Republicans in
snowy Farmington, Pa., a bunch of Bush partisans were sitting
around at breakfast, choking on the poll numbers out of South
Carolina showing McCain dead even with Bush after running 20
points behind a week ago. "That bump," gulped one retreater, "is
just so big." So big, in fact, that they agreed that someone had
to put in a call to Camp McCain, put out a feeler, before the
line got too long and the bandwagon grew too full. So they
nominated one member to reach out to the McCain HQ. Sure enough,
the call was made right after breakfast. "If we're going to keep
control of the House," one of them said later, "maybe the McCain
message has the best chance."
For their part, the Republican Governors were generally holding
fast for Bush. It helps that they have nowhere else to go; but
they had been bracing for this anyway. For several weeks top
Republicans, including Michigan's John Engler, had been quietly
complaining that the Bush campaign has been too secretive, too
insular, too resistant to taking outside advice. Bush himself had
expressed impatience with the way the Iron Triangle of Hughes,
Rove and campaign manager Joe Allbaugh had limited access of
ideas and people but never took any step to open things up. "This
is a colossal f___up," said a Bush adviser. Said another: "By any
measure, the campaign failed." "It's gone from 1 in 10 to 2 in
10," said a longtime pioneer. "But if McCain wins South Carolina,
anything can happen."
Which is why Bush's top aides and his South Carolina allies were
huddled in the Greenville Grand Hyatt by Wednesday afternoon,
trying to figure out how to cut McCain fast and deep. Forget what
they'd said about winning respect as well as votes; the loss up
North was so bad that no one thought Bush could win South
Carolina on the strength of his positive message alone. As a
participant put it later, this was the moment the Bush campaign
"decided to take the gloves off."
Hughes argued that they needed to hijack McCain's message for
themselves. "Governor Bush is a reformer," she said. "I don't
think we've articulated that very well." The South Carolina
team--which includes Lieutenant Governor Bob Peeler, former
Governor David Beasley and top G.O.P. operative Warren
Tompkins--was less concerned about redefining Bush as a reformer
than about turning McCain into a liberal or, as one of them put
it, "worse than a Democrat." "McCain's not an outsider," said
one. "He's an insider. When I hear this populist stuff, it makes
me wanna throw up."
At some point the discussion turned to who could be counted on to
fire which volleys. Several outside groups, including the
National Right to Life Committee, Americans for Tax Reform and
the tobacco lobby were mentioned. "Right to Life will do radio,
ATR will do TV ads," said one of Bush's South Carolina advisers.
"ATR will come down with whatever we need." No one in the meeting
suggested that the campaign was or should be coordinating with
these outside groups. Coordination is illegal, but it is also in
the eye of the beholder, and the discussion revolved around the
idea that these third-party ad campaigns would benefit Bush's
"We have to drive his negatives up," said one of the
participants. Said another: "On the flag, on taxes and on
campaign finance, we don't know where the real McCain is. 'Who's
the real McCain?' We have to prosecute that. We gotta hit him
hard." They tested some new tag lines, designed to make clear
that the G.O.P. was still a club worth belonging to. "He's not
one of us" was one proposal, and "He doesn't share our
conservative values" and "He's outside the mainstream." Someone
even proposed "Out of touch" as a possibility, which makes one
wonder which campaign it was that just lost a primary by 19
points and never saw it coming.
The next morning an anti-McCain ad by a group called the National
Smokers Alliance was on the air, and by week's end Bush had
launched an ad in South Carolina of the kind he had refused to
air in New Hampshire. It is the first by either candidate to
mention the other by name. "John McCain's ad about Governor
Bush's tax plan isn't true, and McCain knows it," the voice-over
says. "On taxes, McCain echoes Washington Democrats, when we need
a conservative leader to challenge them: Governor Bush. Proven.
Tested. And ready to lead America." On the trail, Bush was even
sharper, blasting McCain's "Washington double-talk" for casting
himself as a reformer while flying on corporate jets and planning
a Washington fund raiser this week to schmooze with the lobbyists
he vilifies on the trail.
Bush is in a nest of tough boxes now, and everyone could see how
they fit inside one another. He is trying to run a newly
ideological campaign against a guy who's nonideological; he's
complaining about being usurped by a fake who is riding a public
wave of reform; he has gone negative against a candidate who
seems to fear nothing but who owes his success so far to a happy
willingness to confess everything. Finally, Bush is relying on
the party's right wing to save him from a candidate from the
radical center. If there is one state where this might work, it
is South Carolina, where a third of the voters describe
themselves as religious conservatives--compared with about 1 in 7
in New Hampshire.
But South Carolina also has an open primary: Democrats and
independents can vote too, and Bush's newly starched message may
not work well on the Myrtle Beach transplants and Charleston
sophisticates. Hours after McCain held his political rave of
bright-eyed college converts, Bush was appearing at Bob Jones
University--a school famous for banning interracial dating--where
he told the students, whose attendance was required, that he was
a conservative. He said it six times in less than a minute. When
he needed a heavyweight to testify to his readiness to be
President, he turned to Dan Quayle. And as he groped around for
an issue to bludgeon McCain with, he seized on what might be the
strangest possible choice--the charge that McCain, the war hero
who never fails to pay homage to the Greatest Generation in his
speeches, was somehow weak on veterans' issues.
Sitting in his hotel room at the Courtyard Marriott in Myrtle
Beach, McCain loosened his tie and propped his feet up on the
coffee table. "Attacking me on veterans?" he said in wonder.
"Don't worry about that," said Weaver, the political director.
"He's going to try to trick you into responding." McCain nodded.
"We'll handle him,'" said Murphy, the strategist. "Let him be
flapping around. Focus on being presidential." That's still a
huge assignment for John McCain. He began his race well over a
year ago, but his transformation into a front runner is just
beginning. South Carolina has two weeks to decide how long that
journey will last.
WHO HAS MCCAIN'S EAR?
The license plates on her SUV read MS BUD, but the immaculately
appointed Cindy McCain doesn't exactly look like a Bud girl. The
daughter of one of Arizona's leading Anheuser-Busch
distributors, McCain is usually in Phoenix managing the family
home and the couple's four children, but for the past several
weeks she has jostled around with her husband's touring-bus
jamboree over the roads of New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Though initially reluctant about her husband's run, the former
medical missionary has recently even campaigned on her own. But
she never loses contact with home, and she keeps tabs on her
children's television and computer time when they are not with
her. Using a hardcover-size laptop, she sends them videos of the
campaign via wireless modem. During the long bus rides, her cell
phone chirps with teacher updates and regular check-ins from the
kids. Homework is often faxed to the hotels for Mom's review at
the end of the day. Of her husband, who is 18 years older, she
says, "The best part is that I didn't have to raise him."
MIKE MURPHY / POLITICAL STRATEGIST
"The funniest man in politics" is how John McCain describes the
37-year-old political strategist he hired to shape the campaign's
battle plan. And, sure enough, Mike Murphy has taken lately to
imitating the Australian mannerisms of a traveling tabloid
reporter and re-enacting imaginary chaos in the Bush camp. Most
of Murphy's jokes are drawn directly from what's around him,
which is why McCain likes to sit nearby and feed off his energy.
When McCain tires of bantering with reporters, Murphy picks up
where he leaves off. He tells tales of foreign clients targeted
by gangsters and of outsmarting security at a debate by faking an
asthma attack. Born in Detroit to lifelong Democrats, he has a
record of 18 winning G.O.P. Senate and Governor races, including
one for Bush's brother Jeb, Governor of Florida. But he also
managed the less lucky campaign of former Tennessee Governor
Lamar Alexander in 1996. In the McCain campaign, Murphy was a key
force in persuading the candidate to skip Iowa and embark on the
once ridiculed New Hampshire domino strategy.