A second American century?
The U.S. stands supreme. The struggle to overthrow it is the
story of tomorrow
By Charles Krauthammer
December 20, 1999
Web posted at: 1:17 p.m. EST (1817 GMT)
Last week's handover of the Panama Canal neatly brackets the
American Century. It begins with Theodore Roosevelt conceiving
the canal and, with it, America ascending to the rank of Great
Power. It ends with America so great a power, so serenely
dominant in the world, that it can give away T.R.'s strategic
jewel with hardly a notice.
But if the 20th century was the American century, the
1990s--bracketed by demonstrations of overwhelming American power
in Kuwait and Kosovo--were the supreme American decade. How
supreme? No other nation has exercised such military, economic,
diplomatic and cultural reach since Rome. And Rome's world was
little more than the Mediterranean.
The American triumph in the '90s came as a rude surprise to some.
Only a decade ago, Paul Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of the Great
Powers ushered in the conventional wisdom that America, suffering
from "imperial overstretch," was in decline. With the collapse of
the Soviet Empire, it was assumed that the world would go from
cold war bipolarity to multipolarity. After all, was not Japan
flourishing, Europe unifying, China rising?
Remember that late-'80s joke: The U.S. and Russia waged a cold
war for half a century. Who won? Japan.
Well, it did not turn out quite that way. Japan went into
economic decline. The U.S.S.R., then Russia, collapsed. Europe
entered a decade of economic stagnation and diplomatic
fecklessness (as displayed in the Balkans until the U.S. cavalry
arrived). And China, though rising, remains decades away from
being able to pose a global challenge to the U.S.
As everyone now recognizes, the world at the turn of the 21st
century is not multipolar but unipolar. America bestrides the
world like a colossus. Such hegemony is rare in history because
coalitions of rival powers invariably rise to challenge and cut
down the big guy. Two centuries ago, Russia, Prussia, Britain and
Austria rallied together to defeat Napoleonic France's bid for
European hegemony. The miracle of the '90s has been the dog that
didn't bark: Where is the opposition, where are the coalitions of
second-rank states rising to challenge Pax Americana?
The main reason for the absence of a serious challenge to
American hegemony is that it is so benign. It does not extract
tribute. It does not seek military occupation. It is not
interested in acquiring territory--indeed, it specializes in
giving it up, as shown in the Philippines and Panama.
Economically, the world has prospered under the open trading
system the U.S. supports. And culturally, America is a hit.
Arnold is a universal icon. Latvians like their Levi's. And
everyone loves McDonald's.
Well, not everyone, and there's the rub. Americans, happy in
their getting and spending, are largely oblivious to their
massive world influence. But others are not, particularly
foreign elites. Some chafe, like the French Minister of Culture
who called Disneyland Paris a cultural Chernobyl. Some rant,
like the Malaysian Prime Minister who rose at the U.N. in
September to denounce "the true ugliness of Western
capitalism...backed by the military might of capitalism's
And some are quietly assembling the building blocks of the
coming world opposition. Two events in the closing weeks of the
20th century give a hint of the new world to come in the 21st.
On Dec. 9, Boris Yeltsin and Jiang Zemin bear-hugged in Beijing,
then issued a communique noting "negative" world trends
including "the forcing of the international community to accept
a unipolar world pattern and a single model of culture, value
concepts and ideology." The very next day, the European Union
announced the establishment of a "rapid reaction force" of
60,000 to be controlled by Europe alone. Just a complement to
NATO, they said. But no one believes that. It is the seed of a
European army--independent of the U.S.
True, there is no guarantee that any Sino-Russian alliance will
last. Nor that Europe will have the political will to boost
defense spending and sustain a true rival to the American
military. And, of course, none have the power to challenge
America now. The unipolar moment will surely last for at least a
generation. But the opening chapter in the history of the 21st
century has just been written. The world is stirring.
America cannot defy all the laws of history at once. We have
somehow managed to defy the laws of economics, enjoying low
employment, low inflation and rapid growth all at the same time.
We have reversed the trajectory of social decay, with unexplained
and unpredicted declines in such indexes of social pathology as
crime, dependency and even teen pregnancy.
But the laws of international politics cannot be defied forever.
Not since Rome destroyed Carthage has a great power risen to the
heights we have. And not since then has any country bidding for
hegemony been able to avoid creating, simply by dint of its own
power, a serious and concerted coalition of opposition.
History has not ended; it only looks that way. The great struggle
of the 21st century--to dethrone America--has already begun.
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Cover Date: December 27, 1999