George W.'s rescue squad

South Carolina was the first state to secede from the Union, so it's the kind of place that might like a rebel like Senator John McCain. In fact, the symbol of that rebellion still flies above the statehouse today. But the Confederate flag also stands for a tradition that is likely to help Texas Governor George W. Bush even more: resistance to change. Conservatives who like the established way of things have kept the state's senior Senator, Republican Strom Thurmond, in Washington for 45 years, making him the longest-serving member.

For now, South Carolina Republicans have yet to hear McCain's rebel yell. Their primary comes just 18 days after New Hampshire's, but last week's TIME/CNN poll of likely Republican primary voters shows that 62% of them favor Bush, vs. 15% for McCain. Because South Carolina is the second important primary test, the Arizonan badly needs a victory there to start a brush fire capable of consuming Bush's considerable advantage in money, endorsements and organization in future states. "My campaign will rise or fall depending on what happens in South Carolina," McCain told TIME.

With the stakes so high, such low numbers are clearly a disappointment to a campaign that feels as if it has the momentum, but the McCain operation argues that it has time to catch up. The hustle that has taken McCain so far in the Granite State hasn't yet been fully effective in South Carolina, where 33% of G.O.P. voters don't know enough about McCain to have either a good or a bad opinion of him, according to the TIME/CNN poll. To fix that, the McCain videotaped biography has been mailed to party activists, and the TV-commercial version has been airing for the past two weeks. There is some evidence that Bush support in the state is soft. Among those who picked "W" or other candidates, 43% say they are open to supporting the Arizona Senator.

But McCain has softness of his own. Social conservatives are particularly suspicious of him. While admiring his service to his country, some have been worried about his commitment to the unborn ever since he told the San Francisco Chronicle last August that he would not work to overturn Roe v. Wade. Others cite his willingness to meet with gay Republicans--though he opposes gay marriage and gay adoption--as a possible indication of openness to the "gay-rights agenda."

Bush can also take comfort in the state's affection for front runners--particularly those named Bush. In 1988, George Bush's tactician, Lee Atwater, set up a "fire wall" in South Carolina, building up such support that the Governor's father was able to bury a threat from Bob Dole. And unlike New Hampshire, which takes pride in wobbling the status quo, South Carolina has regularly put a warm arm around the party establishment's candidate and eventual G.O.P. nominee. It saved Dole after Pat Buchanan's surprise New Hampshire victory in 1996.

The battle between the top two G.O.P. candidates will take place in trenches already carved within the South Carolina G.O.P. Bush has knit his family ties into an organization backed by establishment Republican politicians and old hands like former Governor Carroll Campbell. McCain is backed by members of the more obstinate wing of the South Carolina clan, which includes Congressman Lindsey Graham, a folk hero made famous by his quirky orations as a House manager during the President's impeachment trial, and Mark Sanford, an unflappable budget hawk. "The McCain campaign is a revolt," says Richard Quinn, McCain's top man in the state and a bitter rival of the top Bush strategist in the state. "It's a revolt against the special interests, Establishment types and big money, so the more money and endorsements they get reinforces that."

Some special-interest groups are more equal than others, though, and McCain is hoping to close the gap with Bush by relying partly on veterans, a powerful and active voting bloc. "Go with me on one last mission," the former Navy pilot often tells veterans. The pitch is a combination not only of his winning story and expertise on foreign and military affairs but also of a commitment to shore up health-care and other benefits for this group. Even among veterans, who should know about McCain's POW struggle, though, the candidate has had to work just to introduce himself. At an August rally, Cliff Fagan, a Korean War veteran who had been invited by a local politician to hear the Arizona Senator, wasn't clear about him. "Was he a military man?" he asked. Yes, and one who has a long campaign ahead.

George W.'s rescue squad

If he stumbles, South Carolina could save him

By JOHN F. DICKERSON

--With reporting by James Carney/Washington

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Cover Date: December 06, 1999