Polls: Tight race in New Hampshire; Bush well ahead in South CarolinaTexas governor holds large South Carolina leadBy Keating Holland/CNN
November 26, 1999
Web posted at: 8:39 p.m. EST (0139 GMT)
Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) and Texas Gov. George W. Bush are running neck-and-neck among potential voters in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire GOP primary, according to a new CNN/Time poll, but McCain fares less well among potential GOP primary voters in South Carolina -- likely to be the next big test after New Hampshire.
In South Carolina, Bush currently holds a 62 percent-15 percent lead over McCain, although some of that lead may be due to familiarity with the two candidates. More than a third of the South Carolina GOP electorate is unfamiliar with McCain; only 7 percent are unfamiliar with Bush.
In New Hampshire, by contrast, McCain is much better known, and currently much better liked than Bush -- one key reason he is doing well in the Granite State.
The surveys were taken of 504 potential Republican primary voters in New Hampshire and 508 potential Republican voters in South Carolina from November 19-23.
What do New Hampshire GOP primary voters like about McCain? 78 percent say he is sincere (compared to 68 percent who say that about Bush). 64 percent say he is inspiring; only a bare majority feel that way about the Texas governor. And a majority say that Bush is a typical politician; a majority say that McCain is not a typical politician.
Put it all together, and McCain has a 40 percent-29 percent lead among older Granite State voters but loses younger voters to Bush. But note this: McCain's lead is due to his tremendous popularity among independents, who currently give him a 46 percent-27 percent advantage over Bush. Among Republicans, Bush holds a 38 percent-33 percent lead.
Why South Carolina?
It's easy to understand why we polled in New Hampshire, home of the first-in-the-nation primary. But why should we care about the Palmetto State? Because it is one of the first GOP tests after New Hampshire, and John McCain has poured a lot of time and resources into that state. It is widely assumed that if McCain has any chance of winning the nomination, he must do well in New Hampshire and then parlay that into a victory in South Carolina.
South Carolina was crucial to George H. Bush in 1988 and Bob Dole in 1996; both were able to survive early stumbles by scoring convincing wins there. Also, not insignficantly, this is the first poll done in South Carolina.
New Hampshire GOP primary voters' choice for nominee
| McCain | 37% |
| Bush | 35 |
| Forbes | 8 |
| Keyes | 3 |
| Bauer | 2 |
| Hatch | - |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts |
South Carolina GOP primary voters' choice for nominee
| Bush | 62% |
| McCain | 15 |
| Forbes | 5 |
| Keyes | 2 |
| Bauer | 2 |
| Hatch | - |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts |
New Hampshire GOP primary voters' choice for nominee: Republicans and independents
| | Republicans | Independents |
| McCain | 33% | 46% |
| Bush | 38 | 27 |
| Sampling error: +/-5% pts |
New Hampshire GOP primary voters' choice for nominee: Republicans and independents
| | Under 50 | Over 50 |
| McCain | 32% | 42% |
| Bush | 41 | 29 |
| Sampling error: +/-5% pts |
New Hampshire GOP primary voters' choice for nominee: men and women
| | Men | Women |
| McCain | 38% | 35% |
| Bush | 36 | 33 |
| Sampling error: +/-6% pts |
New Hampshire GOP primary voters' opinion of McCain
| Favorable | 74% |
| Unfavorable | 7 |
| Unfamiliar | 19 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts |
South Carolina GOP primary voters' opinion of McCain
| Favorable | 59% |
| Unfavorable | 9 |
| Unfamiliar | 35 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts |
New Hampshire GOP primary voters' opinion of candidates
| | McCain | Bush |
| Favorable | 74% | 68% |
| Unfavorable | 7 | 22 |
| Unfamiliar | 19 | 10 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts |
New Hampshire GOP primary voters' opinion of candidates: Details
| | McCain | Bush |
| Sincere | 78% | 68% |
| Inspiring | 64 | 51 |
| Not a typical | 51 | 40 |
| politician |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts |
New Hampshire GOP primary voters: Do the candidates understand world affairs?
| | Yes | No |
| McCain | 71% | 8% |
| Bush | 54 | 30 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts |
New Hampshire GOP primary voters: Are the candidates typical politicians?
| | Yes | No |
| McCain | 32% | 51% |
| Bush | 51 | 40 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts |
New Hampshire GOP primary voters: Are the candidates sincere?
| | Yes | No |
| McCain | 78% | 6% |
| Bush | 68 | 21 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts |
New Hampshire GOP primary voters: Are the candidates inspiring?
| | Yes | No |
| McCain | 64% | 18% |
| Bush | 51 | 37 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts |
New Hampshire GOP primary voters: Do the candidates have strong moral character?
| | Yes | No |
| McCain | 76% | 6% |
| Bush | 73 | 13 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts |
New Hampshire GOP primary voters: Do the candidates understand nation's problems?
| | Yes | No |
| McCain | 73% | 9% |
| Bush | 69 | 20 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts |
New Hampshire GOP primary voters: Do the candidates have the right temperament?
| | Yes | No |
| McCain | 66% | 13% |
| Bush | 67 | 19 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts |
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