One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

November 22, 1999
Web posted at: 2:29 p.m. EST (1929 GMT)

WASHINGTON -- The following are the spotlight races of the week:

Senate - New York

The New York Senate race continues to move toward a showdown between New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and First Lady Hillary Clinton (D). But with neither candidate having yet announced, it's not yet 100 percent certain who will actually be facing off next year.

Polls have shown Giuliani with a small but steady advantage in the race, with most voters having already decided whether to back the mayor or Mrs. Clinton.

The Republican appears to be getting about 35 percent of the vote in New York City and splitting the state's all-important Jewish voters with Mrs. Clinton. He's also carrying upstate and Long Island comfortably. All of that has even Democratic allies of the first lady worried, and at least a few are asking whether Mrs. Clinton would be the party's strongest candidate next year.

Mrs. Clinton has found it tough to be both the first lady and a candidate for the Senate (she was roundly criticized, for example, during a recent trip to the Middle East). Her soft-dollar TV ads, being paid for through the state Democratic Party, have also been criticized and can only remind reporters and voters of her husband's past advertising and fund-raising efforts.

This race is expected to be close all the way until the election, and it's hard to imagine the first lady doing worse than she has already done. Still, the mayor has a slight edge at this point.

All eyes are on Giuliani and Clinton to make absolutely certain that they are running. Don't bet the farm yet.

Arkansas 4

Once again, Democrats say that they are making Rep. Jay Dickey (R-Arkansas) one of their top House targets. So what else is new?

Ever since Republican Dickey first swiped this normally Democratic congressional seat in 1992, Democrats have figured that they'd win back the district. But while they recruited a top tier challenger in 1994, that was a disastrous year for Democrats, nationally and in the president's home state, and Democratic state legislator Jay Bradford drew just 48 percent.

Since then, Dickey has avoided a major opponent. Part of that has to do with luck, part with the fact that Democrats have to see the Republican congressman as a formidable incumbent who is much more than a political accident.

The congressman's success in personalizing the district and overcoming his normally fatal Republican party label was perhaps best demonstrated in 1996, when Bill Clinton carried the district with 60 percent at the same time that Dickey, a lawyer who has owned a number of businesses (including two Taco Bell franchises), coasted to reelection with 65.5 percent. The congressman had a closer race two years later, but still won comfortably with 57.5 percent.

This time, the Democrats have a number of interested contenders, including the early favorite, state Sen. Mike Ross.

A veteran of Democratic state politics and political campaigns, Ross was first elected to the Arkansas state Senate in 1990. He is term limited and had raised more than $140,000 by the end of June. He appears to be consolidating support from organized labor, and has received good marks from Washington Democratic political operatives. On issues, he seems predictable for a Democratic hopeful.

Chasing Ross are three other Democrats. Judy Smith was her party's nominee last year. She has already been endorsed by a couple of women's groups, and she hopes to use her base in the black community to guarantee that she'll make a runoff. She served four terms in the legislature and was forced out by term limits.

Bruce Harris worked for then-Arkansas congresswoman (now Senator) Blanche Lincoln and later became chief of staff to Rep. Marion Berry of Arkansas' 1st District.

Just 30 years old, Harris has political bloodlines. His grandfather was on the state Supreme Court, and his father has been a judge for more than two decades. He knows agriculture issues, and his contacts with Lincoln and Berry -- and with those two officeholders' consultants -- are considerable assets.

TV investigative reporter Dewayne Graham is the fourth Democratic contender. While he has some name recognition from his years on a Little Rock television channel, his Democratic state roots are shallow. How shallow? Well, Graham ran for Congress as a Republican in Louisiana in 1985.

Insiders doubt that Graham can raise enough money to be competitive. Harris will have to answer questions about his age and local ties. And Smith will have to prove that her candidacy is based on more than her race and gender.

Can any of the Democrats beat Dickey? It's still unclear, but Democrats believe that this is by far their best shot since 1994.

Senate seats in play for 2000:

Monday, November 22, 1999

• GOP presidential candidates debate without Bush -- again
• Cindy McCain stays on an even keel
• Buchanan proposes talks with Iran, Iraq
• Bradley tries to cash in on disdain of big money
• Analysis: Spotlight races of the week
• Des Moines Register: Bauer says polls mean nothing
• McCain suggests Internet as means to link tutors with students
• Gore assures activists "my passions' on their side
• First lady has bumpy transition to Senate candidate
• Front-runners find tougher going in New Hampshire than nationally
• Texas governor confident of securing GOP nomination
• When Gore visits, bring questions, stamina

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