Polls: McCain ties Bush in New Hampshire; Bradley gains support in New York, Iowa

November 11, 1999
Web posted at: 2:52 p.m. EST (1952 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. John McCain is in a statistical tie with Texas Gov. George W. Bush for the Republican presidential race in New Hampshire, while Democrat Bill Bradley has moved ahead of Vice President Al Gore in New York and has made major gains in Iowa, according to new polls.

Bush had 38 percent, compared to 35 percent for McCain, a difference within the poll's 4 percentage point margin of error.

"I think (Bush) has quite a challenge," said pollster Dick Bennett. "There's something there that some Republican voters, especially men, aren't buying about the guy."

The New Hampshire Poll showed men were more likely to favor McCain, while women favored Bush.

The poll also showed McCain with the highest favorability rating -- 67 percent -- among Republicans. Bush's favorability rating dropped to 56 percent from 71 percent in October.

Speaking Wednesday after filing for the New Hampshire primary, Bush said different polls are showing different results, but he realizes McCain is a strong candidate.

"This is a competitive race. I understand it's competitive and I look forward to working hard," Bush said. "If I had to guess why Senator McCain is doing well, it's people respect him and so do I. He's a good man."

Among Democrats, Gore held a slight lead over Bradley, with 46 percent to Bradley's 40 percent.

The telephone poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters and 600 likely Democratic voters was conducted November 4 through November 9 by the American Research Group Inc. of Manchester.

In Iowa, Gore's lead fell in a new "Iowa Project 2000" survey. Gore's support stood at 53 percent to Bradley's 25.3 percent among Democrats likely to vote in the state's January caucuses, according to the survey.

That lead, although still large, is nonetheless down about 11 points from a survey conducted in early August. The poll, conducted by PSI of Alexandria, Virginia, for four midwestern television stations, was taken of 300 likely Democratic caucus attendees. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.62 percentage points.

"Gore enjoys majority status among all age groups and both sexes, but this support appears to be softening," PSI president and project director Craig Tufty said in a news release.

In New York, a Quinnipiac College Polling Institute survey released Thursday had Bradley favored by 47 percent of state Democrats, with Gore the choice of 38 percent.

A Quinnipiac poll from early last month had the former senator from New Jersey at 44 percent and Gore at 41 percent, a statistical dead heat. In July, Gore was leading the former New York Knicks basketball star, 52 percent to 34 percent, among New York Democrats in the Quinnipiac poll.

The good news for the Bradley camp comes just three days before the candidate joins with other basketball greats at Madison Square Garden in New York City for a "Back in the Garden" fund-raising event where ticket prices range from $100 to $1,000 each. Among those expected on hand for the event are several of Bradley's fellow Basketball Hall of Fame legends, including Julius "Dr. J" Erving and Earl "The Pearl" Monroe.

"Bill Bradley has been on a sustained drive, blowing past Vice President Gore," Maurice Carroll, head of the Hamden, Connecticut-based polling institute, said today.

On the Republican side, Bush was the favorite of 56 percent of GOP voters in New York, with McCain at 17 percent and publisher Steve Forbes at 8 percent.

In one possible general election matchup, Bradley leads Bush, 52 percent to 35 percent. Gore is at 47 percent with Bush at 43 percent in another possible November 2000 lineup. Both Bradley and Gore are well ahead of McCain.

The telephone poll of 1,109 voters registered in New York was conducted November 3-8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sampling of 465 registered Democrats has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points while the margin of error for the 355 registered Republicans is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Polls: McCain ties Bush in New Hampshire; Bradley gains support in New York, Iowa

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Thursday, November 11, 1999