October 11, 1999
Web posted at: 6:29 p.m. EDT (2229 GMT)

WASHINGTON -- Former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley has gained ground in his bid for the Democratic nomination, gaining nine points among all Democrats nationwide, according to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.

Bradley still trails Vice President Al Gore by double digits, but Gore's 51 percent to 39 percent edge is significantly smaller than the 63 percent to 30 percent advantage he enjoyed a month ago. Bradley has pulled even with Gore among Democratic men and liberal Democrats.

In addition, there is mounting evidence that the Gore-Bradley race could split along class lines. Bradley has a six-point lead among Democrats who make more than $30,000 a year. Gore, however, has a 35-point lead among Democrats who are less well-off.

Bradley's biggest gains since September have come among men, gaining 13 points. He also made a 16-point gain among Western Democrats and a whopping 22-point gain among Democrats who make between $30-50,000 a year.

The poll was conducted through interviews with 976 adult Americans, including 468 Democrats, on October 8-10, 1999. The margin of error is noted after each question.

Next, I'm going to read you a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2000: former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley or Vice President Al Gore?

Bradley's name recognition grows

One reason for Bradley's recent surge is that he has become better known. Nationally, the number of Americans who are unfamiliar with him has dropped from 42 percent in September to 27 percent today.

That means that his favorable rating has improved to the point where it is almost identical to Gore's nationwide figure, although greater familiarity means that Bradley's unfavorable figures have also grown.

Among Democrats, however, Gore is still more popular and better-known than his rival. Will the rivalry split the party? There is no evidence of that so far.

Sixty-eight percent of Democrats who currently back Gore for the nomination say it would be acceptable to them if Bradley won instead, and 68 percent of Bradley Democrats feel the same way about a Gore victory.

Matched against Texas Gov. George W. Bush in hypothetical general election trials, Gore and Bradley win about the same share of the vote nationwide.

Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable of this person -- or if you have never heard of him. How about former Sen. Bill Bradley? Vice President Al Gore?

Bradley

Democrats' opinion of Bill Bradley

Democrats' opinion of presidential candidates

If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Gov. George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: Al Gore, the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?

If former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Gov. George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: Bill Bradley, the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?

Bradley's character shines

Why do Bradley Democrats prefer him over Al Gore? Topping the list is their belief that Bradley is a person of strong moral character, that he could bring needed change to government, and that he has shown more political independence than Gore.

Seven in 10 Bradley Democrats say those characteristics are important reasons why they currently back Bradley. Bradley Democrats also cite his stand on the issues and his intelligence as important reasons why they back him.

Only 18 percent say that Bradley's career as a basketball player is an important reason why they back him.

Now I am going to read some specific reasons why some Democrats may be voting for Bradley rather than Gore. First do the following statements describe or not describe the way you feel?

GOP Congress facing popularity problem

The balance of power between the two parties depends on whether we look at the budget battle brewing between Clinton and the Republicans in Congress or next year's race for the White House.

The reason: the GOP congressional leadership is extremely unpopular with the general public, but that has not rubbed off on Texas Gov. George W. Bush. How unpopular is the GOP in Congress?

Just 37 percent approve of the way they are handling their job, and 45 percent say they are too conservative. But only 27 percent feel that Bush is too conservative, and 64 percent say his policies would move the country in the right direction.

Only 52 percent feel that way about Al Gore's policies -- even though six in 10 say that Bill Clinton's policies would be good for the country. When no candidates are mentioned, the public is split over whether the Democrats or Republicans would do a better job of keeping the country prosperous -- but a majority believe Bush would do a better job than Gore.

And Bush's comments about his party last week may have helped him, particularly among Republicans. Forty-five percent of all Republicans nationwide say that his remarks made them feel more favorable toward the Texas governor, and 55 percent say they want him to have more influence over the party than the GOP leaders in Congress. Bush still remains the prohibitive favorite for his party's nomination.

The following question have a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points unless otherwise noted.

Next, I'm going to read you a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2000: Family Research Council chairman Gary Bauer; political commentator Patrick Buchanan; Texas Gov. George W. Bush; Former Red Cross Director Elizabeth Dole; businessman Steve Forbes; Arizona Sen. John McCain; Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch; political commentator Alan Keyes?

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress and the Democrats in Congress and President Bill Clinton are handling their jobs?

Do you think the policies proposed by Bill Clinton, Republican leaders in Congress, George Bush or Al Gore would move the country in the right direction or the wrong direction?

For each of the following candidates or groups, please say whether you think their political views are too conservative, about right or too liberal? First, George W. Bush? Second, the Republicans in Congress?

Who do you want more influence over the direction the Republican Party takes over the next year: Texas Gov. George W. Bush or the Republican leaders in Congress.

As you may know, George W. Bush recently made some comments that were critical of the Republican Party. From what you have heard about this matter, do you feel more favorable or less favorable toward George W. Bush as a result of his comments?

Looking ahead for the next few years, which political party do you think will do a better job of keeping the country prosperous?

Which candidate, if elected president, do you think would do a better job of keeping the country prosperous: Al Gore or George W. Bush?

Clinton fatigue hits some

More than four in ten Americans say they are "tired of anyone or anything associated with Bill Clinton," and eight in ten of those support Bush over Gore.

But what is it about Clinton that Americans are tired of -- and how does "Clinton fatigue" compare to how the country felt about the last lame-duck president whose veep was angling to replace him?

Comparing Clinton to Ronald Reagan at this stage in his second term may give us some insights into whether Gore can overcome a problematic incumbent in the same way that then-Vice President George H. Bush did in 1988.

The problem facing Bush was that his boss was personally popular -- 72 percent approved of Reagan as a person -- but only 36 percent wanted to continue Reagan's policies. Some 57 percent in a Gallup poll in the fall of 1987 wanted the next president to change direction from Reagan's policies while only 36 percent wanted Reagan's policies to continue.

Gore faces precisely the opposite problem: Clinton is not very popular as a person, but the public is much more likely to want to continue his policies. More than six in 10 Americans disapprove of Clinton as a person, but the country is split, 50 percent to 47 percent, over whether the next president should change direction from Clinton's policies.

Gore has an advantage the elder Bush did not: he is facing an electorate that is more interested in getting a different person in the Oval Office but less interested in any accompanying changes in policy.

The following questions have a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Next, please tell me if the following statement describes or does not describe you personally: You are tired of anyone or anything associated with Bill Clinton?

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president?

Apart from whether you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president, what do you think of Clinton as a person? Would you say you approve or disapprove of him?

Would you like to see the next president generally continue with Bill Clinton's policies, or would you rather see the next president change direction from Clinton's policies?

Monday, October 11, 1999

• Clinton writes letter seeking delay of nuclear test ban treaty vote
• Poll: Bradley gains ground
• Dole announces official campaign launch
• Gore campaign says AFL-CIO endorsement all but assured
• On eve of lottery vote, ministers hold prayer vigil
• Buchanan brigades could change face of Reform Party

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