Poll: Bradley outpolls Gore for first time in New HampshireBy KEATING HOLLAND/CNN
September 24, 1999
Web posted at: 6:04 p.m. EDT (2204 GMT)
WASHINGTON (CNN) - A new CNN/Time poll taken in New Hampshire shows former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley winning support from 44 percent of potential Democratic primary voters, three points ahead of Vice President Al Gore.
That slim lead is well within the poll's margin of error, but it represents the first time that Bradley has garnered more support than Gore in a poll in the first-in-the-nation Granite State
Bradley's showing is due to a 12-point lead among men (although he loses women to Gore by a smaller margin), as well as a strong showing among college graduates and older voters. In fact, Gore wins only the youngest age group -- 18-34, while losing all older groups to Bradley.
The poll is based on interviews with 1,011 adult Americans, including 349 Republicans, conducted September 21-23, 1999. The margin of error is indicated after each question.
Democratic Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee in 2000
| Bradley | 44% |
| Gore | 41 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts
|
Democratic Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee in 2000
| | Bradley | Gore |
| Men | 50% | 38% |
| Women | 39 | 43 |
| Sampling error: +/-6% pts
|
Democratic Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee in 2000
| | Bradley | Gore |
| 18-34 | 33% | 52% |
| 35-49 | 44 | 38 |
| Over 50 | 50 | 36 |
| Sampling error: +/-7% pts
|
Democratic Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee in 2000
| | Bradley | Gore |
| No college | 29% | 53% |
| Some college | 38 | 17 |
| College grads | 55 | 32 |
| Sampling error: +/-7% pts
|
New Hampshire Democratic primary voters have generally good views of both candidates, but most of them think that Gore is a typical politician who is too tied to Clinton who does not inspire them.
By contrast, most primary voters say that Bradley has new ideas, and nearly half say he is inspiring. Three-quarters don't think he is too close to Clinton -- which is important in an electorate that likes Clinton's policies but dislikes him personally.
Only a quarter of Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire say they like Clinton personally and like his policies; most approve of the Clinton record but dislike the man. That's an illustration of the problems that "Clinton fatigue" pose for Gore in key primary states.
If New Hampshire voters decide that a vote for Bradley would maintain Clinton's policies while jettisoning his personal baggage, Dollar Bill may remain competitive in the Granite State.
Not a Typical Politician?
| | Yes | No |
| Bradley | 49% | 32% |
| Gore | 38 | 57 |
| Asked of Democratic primary voters Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts
|
Has New Ideas?
| | Yes | No |
| Bradley | 56% | 18% |
| Gore | 49 | 40 |
Asked of Democratic primary voters only
Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts
|
Inspiring?
| | Yes | No |
| Bradley | 48% | 30% |
| Gore | 35 | 60 |
Asked of Democratic primary voters only
Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts
|
Too Close to Clinton?
| | Yes | No |
| Bradley | 5% | 77% |
| Gore | 49 | 46 |
Asked of Democratic primary voters only
Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts
|
Democratic Primary Voters' Opinion of Clinton
| Like him and his policies | 27% |
| Like his policies but dislike him | 53 |
| Dislike him and his policies | 12 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts
|
It is important to note that while Bradley has gained significant ground in New Hampshire, he has failed to do the same nationwide.
Among all Democrats across the country, Gore leads Bradley by a 52-29 percent margin, just a few points different from August. Bradley's support has hovered at just under the 30 percent mark since March.
One key reason: the Clinton fatigue exhibited by New Hampshire primary voters is not shared by Democrats nationwide. Almost half of all Democrats like Clinton's policies and like him personally, unlike the majority of Granite State Democrats who dislike the President even though they like his policies.
Another factor, however, remains unfamiliarity with Bradley. Although the number of Democrats who have an opinion of Bradley has grown, Gore is even better-known -- and better-liked -- among the party rank and file.
Democrats' Choice for Nominee in 2000
| | Nationwide | New Hampshire |
| Gore | 52% | 41% |
| Bradley | 29 | 44 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts
|
Democrats' Choice for Nominee in 2000
| | Now | August |
| Gore | 52% | 55% |
| Bradley | 29 | 26 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts
|
Democrats' Opinion of Bill Clinton
| | Nationwide | New Hampshire |
| Like him and his policies | 49% | 27% |
| Dislike him but like his policies | 32 | 53 |
| Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts
|
Democrats' Opinion of Candidates
| | Gore | Bradley |
| Favorable | 73% | 54% |
| Unfavorable | 20 | 12 |
| Unsure | 7 | 34 |
Asked of Democrats nationwide Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts
|
Democrats' Opinion of Bill Bradley
| | Now | June |
| Favorable | 54% | 31% |
| Unfavorable | 12 | 16 |
| Unsure | 34 | 54 |
Asked of Democrats nationwide Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts
|
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