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Poll: Bradley outpolls Gore for first time in New Hampshire

By KEATING HOLLAND/CNN

September 24, 1999
Web posted at: 6:04 p.m. EDT (2204 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) - A new CNN/Time poll taken in New Hampshire shows former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley winning support from 44 percent of potential Democratic primary voters, three points ahead of Vice President Al Gore.

That slim lead is well within the poll's margin of error, but it represents the first time that Bradley has garnered more support than Gore in a poll in the first-in-the-nation Granite State

Bradley's showing is due to a 12-point lead among men (although he loses women to Gore by a smaller margin), as well as a strong showing among college graduates and older voters. In fact, Gore wins only the youngest age group -- 18-34, while losing all older groups to Bradley.

The poll is based on interviews with 1,011 adult Americans, including 349 Republicans, conducted September 21-23, 1999. The margin of error is indicated after each question.


Democratic Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee in 2000

Bradley44%
Gore41
Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

Democratic Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee in 2000

 BradleyGore
Men50%38%
Women3943
Sampling error: +/-6% pts

Democratic Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee in 2000

 BradleyGore
18-3433%52%
35-494438
Over 505036
Sampling error: +/-7% pts

Democratic Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee in 2000

 BradleyGore
No college29%53%
Some college3817
College grads5532
Sampling error: +/-7% pts

New Hampshire Democratic primary voters have generally good views of both candidates, but most of them think that Gore is a typical politician who is too tied to Clinton who does not inspire them.

By contrast, most primary voters say that Bradley has new ideas, and nearly half say he is inspiring. Three-quarters don't think he is too close to Clinton -- which is important in an electorate that likes Clinton's policies but dislikes him personally.

Only a quarter of Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire say they like Clinton personally and like his policies; most approve of the Clinton record but dislike the man. That's an illustration of the problems that "Clinton fatigue" pose for Gore in key primary states.

If New Hampshire voters decide that a vote for Bradley would maintain Clinton's policies while jettisoning his personal baggage, Dollar Bill may remain competitive in the Granite State.


Not a Typical Politician?

 YesNo
Bradley49%32%
Gore3857
Asked of Democratic primary voters Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

Has New Ideas?

 YesNo
Bradley56%18%
Gore4940
Asked of Democratic primary voters only
Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

Inspiring?

 YesNo
Bradley48%30%
Gore3560
Asked of Democratic primary voters only
Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

Too Close to Clinton?

 YesNo
Bradley5%77%
Gore4946
Asked of Democratic primary voters only
Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

Democratic Primary Voters' Opinion of Clinton

Like him and his policies27%
Like his policies but dislike him53
Dislike him and his policies12
Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

It is important to note that while Bradley has gained significant ground in New Hampshire, he has failed to do the same nationwide.

Among all Democrats across the country, Gore leads Bradley by a 52-29 percent margin, just a few points different from August. Bradley's support has hovered at just under the 30 percent mark since March.

One key reason: the Clinton fatigue exhibited by New Hampshire primary voters is not shared by Democrats nationwide. Almost half of all Democrats like Clinton's policies and like him personally, unlike the majority of Granite State Democrats who dislike the President even though they like his policies.

Another factor, however, remains unfamiliarity with Bradley. Although the number of Democrats who have an opinion of Bradley has grown, Gore is even better-known -- and better-liked -- among the party rank and file.


Democrats' Choice for Nominee in 2000

 NationwideNew Hampshire
Gore52%41%
Bradley2944
Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

Democrats' Choice for Nominee in 2000

 NowAugust
Gore52%55%
Bradley2926
Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

Democrats' Opinion of Bill Clinton

 NationwideNew Hampshire
Like him and his policies49%27%
Dislike him but like his policies3253
Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

Democrats' Opinion of Candidates

 GoreBradley
Favorable73%54%
Unfavorable2012
Unsure734
Asked of Democrats nationwide
Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

Democrats' Opinion of Bill Bradley

 NowJune
Favorable54%31%
Unfavorable1216
Unsure3454
Asked of Democrats nationwide
Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

CAMPAIGN 2000

New Hampshire sets February 1 primary date (9-28-99)

Arizona governor endorses Bush over McCain (9-28-99)

Bradley unveils $65 billion plan for universal health care (9-28-99)

Gore receives endorsements of Shaquille O'Neal and Bill Cosby (9-28-99)

MORE HEADLINES


FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much money have the candidates raised? Here are their quarterly reports to the Federal Election Commission.


VIDEO

McCain officially announces Presidential candidacy (9-28-99) video Windows Media: 28K | 80K

VIDEO ARCHIVE


TIME THIS WEEK

The art of being Bradley

How Gore's campaign went off the rails


'TOONS
On the wrong track

Bob Lang: On the wrong track (9-28-99) more

Mike Luckovich: "There's a whine in the air" (9-22-99) more


MESSAGE BOARD

Democratic Presidential Primary

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Friday, September 24, 1999

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