Poll: Bradley draws close to Gore in New HampshireBy Keating Holland/CNN
September 13, 1999
Web posted at: 5:53 p.m. EDT (2153 GMT)
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Vice President Al Gore leads former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley by just five points among New Hampshire voters who say they will participate in the state's first-in-the-nation Democratic primary next year, according to a CNN/WMUR polls.
In May, Gore's share of the potential Democratic vote was 68 percent to just 23 percent for Bradley. In the new poll, Gore's winning margin has shrunk to 46 percent to Bradley's 41 percent. That number falls just inside the poll's margin of error of 5.5 points.
Nearly all of the change has come among men, where Bradley's share of the vote has jumped 37 points since the spring. Among women, Bradley has gained only two points. Since most Democratic moderates are men in New Hampshire and most liberal Democrats are women, Bradley -- widely regarded as the candidate who most appeals to the left -- loses the liberal vote but beats Gore among moderates. Bradley also leads Gore among older voters and college graduates.
Since May, Gore's unfavorable rating among potential Democratic primary voters has nearly tripled, while his favorable rating has dropped 12 points. The good news for Gore is that two-thirds of Granite State Democratic primary voters say they could change their minds before next February.
The bad news for Gore is that Bradley voters are much more likely to say that their minds are made up than are Gore voters.
The poll is based on interviews with 702 New Hampshire voters, including 325 voters who say they intend to vote in the Democratic primary next year, and was conducted by the University of New Hampshire on September 5-11, 1999. The margin of sampling error is indicated with each question.
Currently, Al Gore and Bill Bradley are expected to be on the Democratic primary ballot. If you were voting in the 2000 New Hampshire Democratic primary today, would you vote for Al Gore or Bill Bradley?
| Now | May |
Gore | 46% | 68% |
Bradley | 41 | 23 |
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-5.5% points
|
|
| 18-45 | Over 46 |
Gore | 55% | 38% |
Bradley | 33 | 50 |
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-7% points
|
|
| College Graduates | No Degree |
Gore | 39% | 55% |
Bradley | 49 | 34 |
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-7% points
|
|
| Men | Women |
Gore | 33% | 57% |
Bradley | 57 | 28 |
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-7% points
|
|
| Liberal | Moderate |
Gore | 56% | 39% |
Bradley | 35 | 45 |
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-7% points
|
|
| Now | May |
Men | 57% | 20% |
Women | 28 | 26 |
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-7% points
|
Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. Do you have a very favorable opinion of him or just somewhat? Do you have a very unfavorable opinion of him or just somewhat?
Bill Bradley
| Now | May |
Men | 60% | 48% |
Women | 8 | 4 |
Women | 33 | 47 |
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-5.5% points
|
Al Gore
| Now | May |
Men | 69% | 81% |
Women | 24 | 9 |
Women | 7 | 10 |
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-5.5% points
|
Are you certain to support that person or do you think you may change your mind and support someone else in the 2000 New Hampshire primary?
Mind made up | 37% |
Could change mind | 64 |
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-5.5% points
|
|
| Gore Voters | Bradley Voters |
Mind made up | 34% | 43% |
Could change mind | 66 | 57 |
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-5.5% points
|
Think ahead to the Presidential election in November 2000. Suppose the 2000 election for president was being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and Al Gore, the Democrat. Which would you like to see win?
Bush | 55% |
Gore | 35 |
Sampling error: +/-4% points
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