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Poll: Bradley draws close to Gore in New Hampshire

By Keating Holland/CNN

September 13, 1999
Web posted at: 5:53 p.m. EDT (2153 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Vice President Al Gore leads former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley by just five points among New Hampshire voters who say they will participate in the state's first-in-the-nation Democratic primary next year, according to a CNN/WMUR polls.

In May, Gore's share of the potential Democratic vote was 68 percent to just 23 percent for Bradley. In the new poll, Gore's winning margin has shrunk to 46 percent to Bradley's 41 percent. That number falls just inside the poll's margin of error of 5.5 points.

Nearly all of the change has come among men, where Bradley's share of the vote has jumped 37 points since the spring. Among women, Bradley has gained only two points. Since most Democratic moderates are men in New Hampshire and most liberal Democrats are women, Bradley -- widely regarded as the candidate who most appeals to the left -- loses the liberal vote but beats Gore among moderates. Bradley also leads Gore among older voters and college graduates.

Since May, Gore's unfavorable rating among potential Democratic primary voters has nearly tripled, while his favorable rating has dropped 12 points. The good news for Gore is that two-thirds of Granite State Democratic primary voters say they could change their minds before next February.

The bad news for Gore is that Bradley voters are much more likely to say that their minds are made up than are Gore voters.

The poll is based on interviews with 702 New Hampshire voters, including 325 voters who say they intend to vote in the Democratic primary next year, and was conducted by the University of New Hampshire on September 5-11, 1999. The margin of sampling error is indicated with each question.

Currently, Al Gore and Bill Bradley are expected to be on the Democratic primary ballot. If you were voting in the 2000 New Hampshire Democratic primary today, would you vote for Al Gore or Bill Bradley?

 NowMay
Gore46%68%
Bradley4123
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-5.5% points

 18-45Over 46
Gore55%38%
Bradley3350
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-7% points

 College
Graduates
No
Degree
Gore39%55%
Bradley4934
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-7% points

 MenWomen
Gore33%57%
Bradley5728
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-7% points

 LiberalModerate
Gore56%39%
Bradley3545
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-7% points

 NowMay
Men57%20%
Women2826
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-7% points

Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. Do you have a very favorable opinion of him or just somewhat? Do you have a very unfavorable opinion of him or just somewhat?

Bill Bradley

 NowMay
Men60%48%
Women84
Women3347
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-5.5% points

Al Gore

 NowMay
Men69%81%
Women249
Women710
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-5.5% points

Are you certain to support that person or do you think you may change your mind and support someone else in the 2000 New Hampshire primary?

Mind made up37%
Could change mind64
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-5.5% points

 Gore
Voters
Bradley
Voters
Mind made up34%43%
Could change mind6657
Asked only of Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-5.5% points

Think ahead to the Presidential election in November 2000. Suppose the 2000 election for president was being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and Al Gore, the Democrat. Which would you like to see win?

Bush55%
Gore35
Sampling error: +/-4% points

CAMPAIGN 2000

New Hampshire sets February 1 primary date (9-28-99)

Arizona governor endorses Bush over McCain (9-28-99)

Bradley unveils $65 billion plan for universal health care (9-28-99)

Gore receives endorsements of Shaquille O'Neal and Bill Cosby (9-28-99)

MORE HEADLINES


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Monday, September 13, 1999

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