July 2, 1999
Web posted at: 5:13 p.m. EDT (2113 GMT)

WASHINGTON (July 2) -- As the schedule for the 2000 presidential primaries takes shape, the race looks to be a three-month sprint to the nomination.

The Iowa caucuses, which are likely to be held on January 31, 2000, will kick off a rapid-fire series of contests culminating March 14 with the Super Tuesday primaries. By that point, more than 60 percent of Democratic delegates and at least 70 percent of Republican delegates will be allocated, meaning in all likelihood each party's nomination will be locked up.

The move to a compressed primary schedule came from states seeking to have a larger role in selecting a president. The move was started by the biggest prize of all, California. State legislators there voted in September 1998 to move its primary to March from June.

The old June date made California's primary somewhat of an afterthought, months after the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries dramatically narrowed the candidate field. California would then have to wait until the general election to flex its powerful 54 electorial votes.

Other states vied for early spots as well, leading to the current compressed schedule. Thursday was the deadline for states to inform the Republican National Committee of their primary and caucus dates. Most Democratic contests have been scheduled as well, but those dates won't be set for good until the Democratic National Committee's meeting in September.

This tightened schedule lengthens the odds for a longshot candidate to win and makes money more important than ever.

For Republicans Texas Gov. George W. Bush and publisher Steve Forbes, they have nearly unlimited amounts of money to spend. Bush has raised $36.2 million so far, a record-breaking amount, while Forbes, a multi-millionaire publisher, has plenty of his own money to spend on the race.

The two Democratic candidates, Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley, have raised $18 million and $11 million respectively, which is enough money to contest the huge multi-state primaries in March, where expensive television advertising could prove decisive.

For the rest of the GOP field, the early primaries are crucial tests. To combat the financial advantage of Bush and Forbes, these candidates are banking on "free media," like the kind of attention that conservative commentator Pat Buchanan won in 1996 with his win in the Louisiana caucuses and his upset victory in New Hampshire.

Another factor in the early races is the Christian right vote, which Buchanan, Forbes, former Vice President Dan Quayle, former Family Research Council Chairman Gary Bauer and others are fighting hard for.

The primary season really begins in Iowa with its caucuses and almost all of the candidates have poured a great deal of energy into the state. Lamar Alexander has been there 56 times since 1996, and for him, Iowa is a make- or-break state. If he does badly in next month's straw poll in Iowa, it could hurt him badly.

The goal for candidates in Iowa is to finish in the top three. Campaign strategists expect two of those spots will likely go to mainstream candidates such as Bush and former Red Cross chairman Elizabeth Dole with the third spot going to a social conservative.

Eight days after the Iowa caucus -- as the schedule stands now -- comes the traditional first primary in New Hampshire. The date is tentatively scheduled for February 8 but the state is worried that it could lose its first primary status in this compressed primary season Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen signed a bill this week that allows the state to schedule its primary at any point in 1999 if necessary to maintain its first-in-the-nation status.

New Hampshire will be Arizona Sen. John McCain's big test as he has opted out of a serious contest in Iowa. He is banking instead on strong support from New Hampshire's veterans to fire up his run. McCain is a former Navy pilot who was a prisoner of war in Vietnam.

McCain will then take his get-out-the-vet strategy to South Carolina, which along with Michigan, Washington state, Arizona and Virginia, will hold GOP primaries in mid-to-late February.

Then comes March with the large states, in which the well-funded candidates can flex their financial muscle.

"Having more money than the other candidates has always been important, but there is a bigger premium on it this time. There will be multimillion dollar advertising budgets needed for those large states," said Charles Black, a Republican strategist.

On March 7 is the so-called Yankee primary, with many northeastern states, including powerhouse New York, holding primaries. But the big prize on that day is California.

California is keeping is winner-take-all format for the GOP contest, giving Bush -- if he's still the frontrunner -- an opportunity to knock out his opponents. But the Democratic primary in California awards its delegates on a proportional basis, making it harder for Gore to knock out Bradley.

Bradley has spent a large amount of time in California and combined with his standing in New York, where's he once played pro basketball for the New York Knicks, March 7 could be his most important day.

The California primary is followed by the Big Sky primary on March 10 with Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. On March 14 comes Super Tuesday, when a bloc of southern states cast their ballots. That day may well seal the nomination.

If history is any judge, money eventually will beat any momentum some of the lesser-funded candidates can generate, but only time will tell if today's favorites are next year's winners.

Friday, July 2, 1999

• Primary season: Don't blink or you might miss it
• Gore courts New Hampshire votes - in Washington
• Bradley to pick up Kerrey endorsement
• Bush discloses income of at least $2 million
• Orrin Hatch enters White House race
• Gore campaign shuffles staff
• House OKs financial privacy measure
• GOP Congress goes home with tax talk blueprint in hand
• Democrats climb out of debt
• Senate continues ban on buying federal employees abortions
• California state Senate sends gun-a-month bill to governor
• Analysis: For Clinton, scant credit for a foreign policy success
• Clinton plans to nominate commissioner for second term

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