March 30, 1999
Web posted at: 10:08 a.m. EST (1508 GMT)

CNN ANCHOR JEANNE MESERVE: And, as Democrats fight to win back control of the House of Representatives next year, some believe they need all the incumbents they can get. But Representative Debbie Stabenow of Michigan today announced her bid for the U.S. Senate. She says she is ready to take on vulnerable Republican incumbent Spencer Abraham now that Michigan's former democratic governor James Blanchard has taken himself out of the race. A Stabenow-Abraham contest would likely be one of the fiercest of next year's elections.

Representative Stabenow joins us from Grand Rapids.

Why did you decide to run?

REP. DEBBIE STABENOW (D-MI), MICHIGAN SENATE CANDIDATE: Well, good afternoon, Jeanne. It's great to be with you.

I am running because I know I can make a difference in the U.S. Senate for working families. We need a fighter for Michigan families. I spent today with my family, traveling around Michigan, and we are sending a very strong message that the issues of Medicare and Social Security, quality safe schools for our children, strong patient bill of rights where doctors make decisions and not insurance companies, that that's the agenda that the Michigan families want to see someone fighting for, and I'm going to be there on their side.

MESERVE: Did you come under pressure from members of your own party to stay in the House rather than run for the Senate?

STABENOW: I've received encouragement on both sides. I am a huge fan of Dick Gephardt and his leadership in the House. There's no doubt in my mind that they're going to be able to take the majority in the year 2000, and certainly I was encouraged to stay, but I have a wonderful woman who is going to be, I believe, announcing to run in my seat, Senator Dianne Byron, who will do a terrific job, and together, we'll be partners; she, in the House, and myself, in the Senate, fighting on the side of working families.

MESERVE: We have heard that Dick Gephardt can be pretty pervasive on this score. Did he offer you any inducements to stay the House, any plum committee assignments or anything like that?

STABENOW: Well, I've been in a leadership position since coming on as a freshman and have been very appreciative of the opportunities that he has given me, and I certainly appreciate that; but frankly, I think that our friendship has allowed him to say he wanted me to do whatever is best for me. And when I look at Michigan now -- and I've lived here my whole life. My whole family is here -- I care very deeply about being in the best spot to make the very best decisions and make the best fight for Michigan families, and I believe it's in the U.S. Senate.

MESERVE: Did Gephardt express any disappointment when you decided to run for Senate?

STABENOW: Well, he certainly was encouraging me to stay, wanted me to stay, but after a meeting -- the woman I'm supporting to replace me -- he understands that we've got a real winner in Senator Dianne Byron, and that she's going to be there fighting for Michigan families as well, and so we're going to work as a team.

MESERVE: Some people are skeptical that the Democrats can hold on to your district.

STABENOW: Oh, I -- there's no question in my mind that we can do that, that we can hold on to my seat, particularly with Senator Byrum expressing interest. And it's also no question in my mind that I am in a position to win the U.S. Senate seat. The people of Michigan are very concerned about issues directly affecting their families. And those are the things that I bring to the table. Those are the things that I fight for every day.

MESERVE: Some Michigan Republicans are skeptical of your chance of winning or say -- they are at least calling you a second-tier candidate. What's your reaction to that? Do you think you can win?

STABENOW: Well, I think other can speak to that. I think the fact that they're so ferocious in their response right now -- they have taken out full-page ads in the "Detroit Free Press" and "News" at this early stage certainly indicates, I think, their actions speak louder than their words about how seriously they take my candidacy.

They know that I am out there every day, that I am working on behalf behalf of families, protecting Social Security and Medicare, wanting to pay down our debt, and make sure we've got quality, safe schools.

They know that I am on the side of where the people are in Michigan, and I think they're concerned.

Representative Debbie Stabenow, thanks for joining us.

STABENOW: Thank you.

MESERVE: And now, let's talk more about Stabenow's Senate and the political futures of other House members with CNN political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. Thanks so much for joining us.

Well, do you agree with what the congresswoman had to say?

STUART ROTHENBERG, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I think she's going to be a very credible candidate. It's just dopey to portray her as a second-tier candidate. Clearly, she is the top Democrat, the one that Spencer Abraham was most worried about.

But she has plenty to prove. She has cultivated an image as a moderate, a centrist. But you listen to Republicans, and they say that she's good on platitudes but she's short on specifics. I think they're going to push her to define herself ideologically. .

MESERVE: Now, Geoffrey Fieger, the former attorney for Jack Kevorkian, former gubernatorial candidate, is talking about running as an independent. What kind of factor would that be?

ROTHENBERG: That would be a huge factor. I mean, Republicans are just praying -- I told a Republican recently they ought to try to form a campaign committee for him to get him into the race.

If Fieger runs, he's traditionally run best in the governor's race in Detroit. He talks about Detroit, the poor, minorities, core Democratic constituencies.

If he runs as an independent, even if he were to run in a primary, that would be big problems for the Democrats. I think it would put Spence Abraham in much better position.

MESERVE: Is Abraham vulnerable and why?

ROTHENBERG: I suppose he is vulnerable because he's not a prohibitive favorite, so I guess that makes him vulnerable. It's more a question of question marks. He's not particularly charismatic. He hasn't staked out a particular issue.

But more than that, I mean, he's smart. He's savvy. He was a state party chairman. He understands politics.

But more than that, I think the question is, you know, he was elected in a great Republican year. How is he going to do in a -- with a playing field that is more level? How is he going to do against an energetic, reasonably characteristic figure like Debbie Stabenow? He doesn't have that charisma. But he's going to raise a lot of money. It's going to be a very, very good race.

MESERVE: We know the Democrats want to keep control of the House. Is there a real tug-of-war going on within the party between House Democrats and Senate Democrats over candidates like her?

ROTHENBERG: I think there is, and not in every district, but certainly in this district. Let's look at this one as an example.

Congresswoman Stabenow mentioned Dianne Byrum as a candidate. Well, the Republicans are likely to have a candidate, state senator Mike Rogers, who has been mentioned in an AP story as interested. In fact, Rogers was in town recently talking to Tom Davis of the NRCC under the assumption that Stabenow was going to run for the Senate.

Republicans tell me that Rogers is a strong candidate. This is a marginal district, maybe tilting very slightly Democratic, but a Republican held it in '94, and won it in '94. I think this is exactly the kind of place where Democrats need to be nervous about losing incumbents in the House.

MESERVE: OK. Let's talk about some of the seats in play. Frank Pallone, Democrat, New Jersey. What's the status?

ROTHENBERG: This is a central New Jersey district. Pallone has been interested in running for the Senate. Republican Mike Ferguson (ph), who ran two years ago, spent over a million dollars, has been through town again. He's running. He told me he's running whether or not Pallone runs for the Senate.

This is a definitely marginal district. Clinton won it only by a few points in '92. I think it's a good seat. And I think it's a seat where the Democrats would be better off with Frank Pallone.

MESERVE: David Minge, Minnesota. Give us the outlook.

ROTHENBERG: This is clearly a vulnerable district if he runs for the Senate. It's southwestern Minnesota. Bill Clinton won by two points in 1992. I think this would be a terrific Republican takeover opportunity if it was an open seat.

MESERVE: And Ted Strickland and Marcy Kaptur, both Democrats, both Ohio.

ROTHENBERG: Well, here we have sort of the yin and the yang. If Marcy Kaptur were to run, if this was an open seat -- look, this is a solid Democratic district. (UNINTELLIGIBLE) district for her and for any Democrats. So there wouldn't be -- no problem. If Ted Strickland were to run, he comes from southeastern Ohio. This is clearly a marginal district, even tilting Republican.

Yes, he won with 57 percent last time against an allegedly strong Republican. But in an open seat, I think Democrats have real trouble holding this district.

MESERVE: Joe Scarborough, Republican from Florida.

ROTHENBERG: Florida's first district, the western panhandle. This is a district that had elected Democrats to the House. It is Republican up and down the ballot other than that. I think if Scarborough were to run for the Senate, which is, I think, probably unlikely, the Republicans would hold it.

MESERVE: Another presumed may run for the Senate, Nita Lowey in New York.

ROTHENBERG: This is a district that has been redrawn, and includes some Westchester, some Bronx, some Queens. It's a Democratic-tilting district if it were open. But I think if a strong Republican ran, it could be competitive. The Democrat would have an edge.

MESERVE: Ron Klink of Pennsylvania is running for the Senate. ROTHENBERG: He is running for the Senate. And I asked him recently about this. Could a Republican win this? Could Melissa Hart (ph), state senator, conservative state senator win this? And he said, no, no, no, the Democrats will hold this.

In fact, I think he may be a little bit exaggerated in his optimism. I think this is a marginal Democratic district, but it could be very competitive as open seat. This is one of those seats to look at.

MESERVE: And one House manager makes this list. Jim Rogan.

ROTHENBERG: Jim Rogan, Jim Rogan, California, 27. I think he is leaning to running for the Senate. That would make this an open seat. This is a marginal district anyway. It is moving demographically Democratic.

You can argue that he won't be able to hold this next year, but if you make it an open seat, you take away Republican incumbency, it's awfully tough for the GOP.

MESERVE: What kind of factor is impeachment in that race?

ROTHENBERG: Well, I think for him what it does is it generates money for the Democratic challenger. It gins up Democratic turnout. I think impeachment, if it hurts anywhere, it hurts him -- probably nowhere else.

MESERVE: Stu Rothenberg, thanks so much.

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Tuesday, March 30, 1999

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• Inside Politics Transcript: Michigan Rep. Stabenow talks about her decision to run for Senate
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