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 TIME on politics Congressional Quarterly CNN/AllPolitics CNN/AllPolitics - Storypage, with TIME and Congressional Quarterly

Slower spending is likely to postpone Medicare crisis

Experts concerned new numbers will delay reforms

By Brooks Jackson/CNN

March 29, 1999
Web posted at: 6:15 p.m. EST (2315 GMT)

WASHINGTON (March 29) -- Medicare's bankruptcy is being delayed because budget-busting spending growth has stopped.

"The outlays have just screeched to a halt. Spending has slowed down far more than anyone anticipated," says Gail Wilensky, chairwoman of the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission.

Medicare

Medicare spending was previously out of control -- up more than 8 percent in fiscal 1997. But in 1998 the brakes slammed on: spending went up only 1.5 percent. And in the first five months of the 1999 fiscal year, Medicare spending is actually down 3.6 percent.

What happened?

After criticizing Republicans for trying to cut Medicare in 1996, President Bill Clinton signed big cuts into law the next year. They've had an effect.

Robert Reischauer of the Brookings Institution said, "We cut the rate of growth of payments made to hospitals, to home health agencies, to laboratories, to physicians, to skilled nursing facilities. Virtually all providers got hit."

Another factor: The Clinton Administration's aggressive war on Medicare fraud and sloppy billing. Example: The Medicare carrier for Illinois and Michigan paid $140 million to settle civil charges of manipulating data.

An investigation of improper Medicare billing for outpatient services has caught more than 2,500 hospitals, which have agreed to pay a total of nearly $66 million.

"I think this has sent providers into shock, and many of them are being very careful about their billing practices," Reischauer said.

Whatever the reasons the spending slowdown means Medicare won't go bankrupt as quickly as expected.

Last year Medicare's trustees said 2008 -- just nine years from now -- was when the hospital trust fund would run out of money. But that date should roll back significantly when the trustees release their latest report Tuesday morning.

Wilensky said, "The expectation is that the bankruptcy of the trust fund is probably going to be 2012."

But, experts worry, that the latest news could delay needed reforms.

"The basic problem with Medicare program is that we've got 78 million baby boomers who start to retire at the end of the next decade," Wilensky explained.

"We know the day of reckoning is coming," said Reischauer, "and whether it occurs in 2012 or 2015 doesn't make much difference."

But Washington seldom makes painful choices unless there's a crisis -- and Medicare's crisis is being delayed.

But only for awhile. Experts predict that Medicare spending soon will start rising once again -- rising faster than the whole economy.


Medicare graphic
VIDEO

President Clinton hasn't announced his Medicare reform plans yet, but they are already drawing some fire. CNN's Chris Black reports. (6-27-99)video Windows Media: 28K | 80K

What if Medicare patients had more options? CNN's Brooks Jackson explains. (3-18-99) video Windows Media: 28K | 80K

CNN's Brooks Jackson talks with Medicare patients about their rising drug costs (3-17-99) video Windows Media: 28K | 80K

CNN's Brooks Jackson takes a look at how Medicare has held up (3-16-99) video Windows Media: 28K | 80K


RELATED STORIES

Clinton drops Medicare prescription drug change (6-26-99)

Bankruptcy of Social Security, Medicare delayed (3-30-99)

Slower spending is likely to postpone Medicare crisis (3-29-99)

Republicans want Medicare plan before agreeing to money (3-22-99)

Democrats say Republican budget sacrifices Medicare for tax cuts (3-18-99)

The flavor of Medicare (3-17-99)

Clinton, Congress vow to push ahead on Medicare (3-17-99)

Paying for prescription drugs worries Medicare recipients (3-16-99)

Medicare commission's failure doesn't mean debate will go away (3-16-99)

Clinton to draft his own Medicare rescue plan (3-16-99)

Medicare showing its age (3-15-99)

Public opinion does not side with most proposed Medicare reforms (3-15-99)

MORE RELATED STORIES


RELATED SITES

AARP Web site

American Association of Health Plans

American Hospital Association

American Medical Association

Americans for Free Choice in Medicine

Blue Cross and Blue Shield Association

Consumers Union

Families USA

Healthcare Leadership Council

Health Insurance Association of America

Medicare -- Official U.S. Web site

National Bipartisan Commission on the Future of Medicare

National Center for Policy Analysis

National Coalition for Patient Rights

National Coalition on Health Care

Patients' Bill of Rights Act of 1998

Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America


MESSAGE BOARD

Do you think the eligibility age for Medicare should be increased from 65 to 67? Discuss it with other your fellow AllPolitics readers on our "Politics of Health Care" message board.

Also: Aging in America


VOTER'S VOICE

What do you think about Medicare reform? We want to know. Drop us an e-mail. Don't forget to include you name and hometown. We'll post a sampling of your letters in the next installment of Voter's Voice.



MORE STORIES:

Monday, March 29, 1999

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