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Slower spending is likely to postpone Medicare crisisExperts concerned new numbers will delay reformsBy Brooks Jackson/CNN
March 29, 1999 WASHINGTON (March 29) -- Medicare's bankruptcy is being delayed because budget-busting spending growth has stopped. "The outlays have just screeched to a halt. Spending has slowed down far more than anyone anticipated," says Gail Wilensky, chairwoman of the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission.
Medicare spending was previously out of control -- up more than 8 percent in fiscal 1997. But in 1998 the brakes slammed on: spending went up only 1.5 percent. And in the first five months of the 1999 fiscal year, Medicare spending is actually down 3.6 percent. What happened? After criticizing Republicans for trying to cut Medicare in 1996, President Bill Clinton signed big cuts into law the next year. They've had an effect. Robert Reischauer of the Brookings Institution said, "We cut the rate of growth of payments made to hospitals, to home health agencies, to laboratories, to physicians, to skilled nursing facilities. Virtually all providers got hit." Another factor: The Clinton Administration's aggressive war on Medicare fraud and sloppy billing. Example: The Medicare carrier for Illinois and Michigan paid $140 million to settle civil charges of manipulating data. An investigation of improper Medicare billing for outpatient services has caught more than 2,500 hospitals, which have agreed to pay a total of nearly $66 million. "I think this has sent providers into shock, and many of them are being very careful about their billing practices," Reischauer said. Whatever the reasons the spending slowdown means Medicare won't go bankrupt as quickly as expected. Last year Medicare's trustees said 2008 -- just nine years from now -- was when the hospital trust fund would run out of money. But that date should roll back significantly when the trustees release their latest report Tuesday morning. Wilensky said, "The expectation is that the bankruptcy of the trust fund is probably going to be 2012." But, experts worry, that the latest news could delay needed reforms. "The basic problem with Medicare program is that we've got 78 million baby boomers who start to retire at the end of the next decade," Wilensky explained. "We know the day of reckoning is coming," said Reischauer, "and whether it occurs in 2012 or 2015 doesn't make much difference." But Washington seldom makes painful choices unless there's a crisis -- and Medicare's crisis is being delayed. But only for awhile. Experts predict that Medicare spending soon will start rising once again -- rising faster than the whole economy. |
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