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Poll: Bush tops Gore in hypothetical 2000 race
March 5, 1999 WASHINGTON (March 5) -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush leads Vice President Al Gore in a hypothetical matchup for the 2000 presidential election, a new CNN/TIME poll shows. A key reason for Bush's strength appears to be the public's view of the two men's leadership qualities. Sixty percent of Americans say Bush is a strong and decisive leader, while only 39 percent say the same about Gore. One other difference that emerges from the new poll is that 50 percent of those questioned say Bush has new ideas, but only 44 percent say that Gore does. But at this early stage, opinions are far from fixed, and some of the difference suggested by the survey fall within the poll's margin of error. Seventy-one percent of all Americans say they need to know more about Bush to decide whether he would make a good president. That is not surprising, considering he has only held office for four years and many people outside of his home state may have only recently heard of him. Sixty-four percent say they need to know more about Gore to decide whether he would be a good president, despite his presence on the national scene since 1992. So, despite Bush's apparent lead, only 17 percent of all Americans say they would definitely vote for him next year and only 15 percent would definitely vote for Gore. Most Americans say they could change their minds between now and then. The poll, a survey of 1,071 adult Americans, was conducted on March 4. It has a sampling error of +/-3 percentage points unless otherwise noted. Here are the questions and results: Suppose the election for president in the year 2000 were being held today, and you had to choose between Vice President Al Gore, the Democrat, and Texas Governor George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote -- Gore or Bush? George W. Bush 52% Al Gore 41 Suppose the election for president in the year 2000 were being held today, and you had to choose between Vice President Al Gore, the Democrat, and Texas Governor George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote -- Gore or Bush? Do you think you will definitely vote for (Gore/Bush) or could you change your mind? Definitely for Bush 17% Bush, but could change mind 35 Gore, but could change mind 26 Definitely for Gore 15 Do you think the following applies or does not apply to George W. Bush and Al Gore: A strong and decisive leader?
Yes No
Bush 60% 14%
Gore 39 41
Do you think the following applies or does not apply to George W. Bush/Al Gore: Has new ideas?
Yes No
Bush 50% 18%
Gore 44 33
Thinking about George W. Bush, do you know enough about him to decide whether he would make a good president, or do you feel you need to know more? Yes 26% No 71 Thinking about Al Gore, do you know enough about him to decide whether he would make a good president, or do you feel you need to know more? Yes 32% No 64 Candidate ComparisonsDo you think the following applies to George W. Bush and Al Gore: Is intelligent? Has strong moral character? Is honest?
Bush Gore
Intelligent 81% 77%
Strong morals 67 65
Honest 63 62
Do you think the following applies to George W. Bush and Al Gore: A strong and decisive leader? Has new ideas?
Bush Gore
Strong leader 60% 39%
New ideas 50 44
Do you think the following applies to George W. Bush and Al Gore: Understands the nation's problems? Has sympathy for the problems of ordinary people?
Bush Gore
Understands problems 59% 60%
Sympathy for ordinary 52 58
people
Thinking ahead to the year 2000, if you were asked to vote for a Republican nominee for the president today, which of the following Republicans would you vote for?
Bush 48% Asked of Republicans only; sampling error: +/-5% pts The last sitting vice president to run for the White House was, of course, George H. W. Bush. How did he stand 21 months before the 1988 election? It turns out he was just as far behind the Democratic front-runner as Gore is today. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in mid-March of 1987 showed then-Vice President Bush with 38 percent support, compared to 47 percent for Gary Hart, the Democratic front-runner at the time. Bush shared Gore's leadership problem; only 35 percent of all Americans in early 1987 said that the vice-president was a strong and decisive leader. Bush also was seen as not having new ideas. More people saw Bush in 1987 than Gore today as intelligent and understanding the nation's problems, but Gore gets higher marks for having sympathy for the problems of ordinary people. Surprisingly, given Gore's problems with campaign fund-raising and allegations of Bush's involvement in the Iran-contra matter, both men were considered honest by the public. One potential advantage for Gore is that as good as times were during the last years of the Reagan era, the public is even more content today. Seventy-three percent now think that things are going very well or fairly well in the country today. Sixty percent felt that way in early 1987. A strong and decisive leader?
Yes No
Gore now 39% 41%
Bush in 1987 35 52
Has new ideas?
Yes No
Gore now 44% 33%
Bush in 1987 37 41
Understands the nation's problems?
Yes No
Gore now 60% 26%
Bush in 1987 68 23
Has sympathy for problems of ordinary people?
Yes No
Gore now 58% 26%
Bush in 1987 47 38
Is honest?
Yes No
Gore now 62% 22%
Bush in 1987 64 17
How well do you think things are going in the country these days? Very Well/Fairly Well Now 73% Feb. 1987 60 Like father, like son? Not really. George W. Bush gets higher marks for his leadership abilities and sympathy for ordinary Americans than his father did while the elder Bush was gearing up his own successful presidential bid in early 1987. Sixty percent say Gov. Bush is a strong and decisive leader, while only 35 percent said that about then-Vice President Bush in early 1987. Fifty-two percent say Gov. Bush has sympathy for the problems of ordinary people, while slightly fewer, 47 percent, felt in early 1987 that his father sympathized with ordinary Americans. The younger Bush does not rank as highly today as his father did in 1987 when it comes to intelligence or understanding the country's problems. But former President Bush did not get credit for having new ideas in 1987. Fifty percent of Americans believe that Gov. Bush has new ideas today. A strong and decisive leader?
Yes No
Gov. Bush now 60% 14%
V.P. Bush in 1987 35 52
Has sympathy for the problems of ordinary people?
Yes No
Gov. Bush now 52% 21%
V.P. Bush in 1987 47 38
Understands the nation's problems?
Yes No
Gov. Bush now 59% 17%
V.P. Bush in 1987 68 23
Has new ideas?
Yes No
Gov. Bush now 50% 18%
V.P. Bush in 1987 37 41
CNN's Keating Holland contributed to this report. |
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MORE STORIES:Friday, March 5, 1999
• Lewinsky book may force investigation of Starr's office • Poll: Bush tops Gore in hypothetical 2000 race • Clinton wishes Lewinsky well • Transcript: Clinton comments on Lewinsky book deal • Poll: Public remains unsympathetic to Lewinsky • Paula Jones' lawyers get lion's share of $850,000 settlement • Clinton to nominate civil rights chief for Senate confirmation • Sen. Connie Mack won't seek re-election • 'Mob Mouthpiece' enters Las Vegas mayoral race • Biography on Gore details struggles during impeachment • Three-story Lichtenstein sculpture to go up in D.C. • Democrats boycott Alabama Senate • Idea for school flexibility tangled in competing agendas • DeLay says he did not commit perjury in deposition • Democrats hit GOP plan for fiscal 2000 budget • Federal judge throws out Louisiana law on late-term abortion • Monica's career may benefit from scandal • New Hampshire takes step toward income tax • Cohen's wife interviews Clinton • Tripp demands apology from Moran | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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