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What's ahead for the 106th Congress?
January 6, 1999 WASHINGTON (AllPolitics, January 6) -- As the members of the 106th Congress converge on Washington, many observers are wondering what the highly divided, Republican-controlled group will accomplish. Still distracted by the impeachment proceedings against President Bill Clinton, the prospects of the new Congress agreeing on substantial legislation look uncertain at best. 
Leaders from both parties speak of picking up where the 105th Congress left off, tackling Republican agenda issues such as tax cuts and defense spending and Democratic priorities like saving Social Security, reforming health care and passing anti-smoking legislation. But even as the parties talk about healing the wounds wrought by the year-long investigation into Clinton's illicit relationship with Monica Lewinsky and working in a bipartisan spirit on the people's business, some observers see another scenario developing. Republicans continue to blame their losses in the November 3 elections on a political miscalculation -- a shift away from their core conservative values of smaller government and lower taxes. Democrats, energized by their gains in the House, may be content to continue to portray the GOP-led Congress as unproductive. These two factors may polarize the Congress even more. But the GOP leadership, eager to wrestle control of the agenda back from the Clinton Administration and to endear itself to an increasingly discontent public, has placed tax relief as a top priority and may be willing to compromise to achieve this goal. Yet, to use any of this year's estimated $66 billion budget surplus on a tax cut plan, the Republicans must first deal with Clinton's mantra of "save Social Security first." Social SecurityThe president and key Democrats have opposed spending any of the budget surplus on a tax-cut package until the government finds a solution to the strain of the aging Baby Boom generation on the Social Security system. 
The 105th Congress failed to pass a House-approved $80 billion tax cut that would have provided tax relief for married couples, small businesses and the elderly. The measure died in the Senate after both Democrats and moderate Republicans opposed passing tax relief before Social Security's future was secured. But both Republicans and Democrats seem motivated this year to find a compromise that will prevent the system from going bankrupt in 2032. Clinton has long sought to add saving Social Security to his currently bleak legacy, sponsoring several regional forums and a White House conference last month on alternative solutions to shoring up the 64-year-old system. Republicans, in addition to possibly paving the way for a tax cut, have also long been interested in cutting the size of government by allowing Social Security funds to be invested in the stock market. The Social Security Trust Fund, financed by a 12.4 percent payroll tax, half paid by workers and half by employers, is currently invested in safe, but low-yielding Treasury bonds. At the White House conference last month Clinton indicated he is searching for ways to increase the fund's rate of return by investing some of its money in the stock market. And other Democratic lawmakers, such as Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York and Bob Kerrey of Nebraska, have sponsored a measure that would allow individuals to invest 2 percent of their payroll taxes on their own. Both of these steps may indicate a compromise is possible. "The American people want us to go to work. They want us to produce good policy," House Speaker-to-be Dennis Hastert of Illinois said Monday. "The ability for us to save Social Security and Medicare in the future, the ability to give American workers and working families more of their money so that they can keep it in their pocket instead of giving it to the tax collectors." Tax cut
A tax cut could be a harder sell. With some analysts predicting an economic slowdown, the Congress might not have the ability to fund a tax relief package, even if lawmakers find a solution to the Social Security dilemma. So Republicans and Democrats may turn to targeted tax cuts to please constituents at a discount. The GOP leadership is expected to put a high priority on reducing the so-called "marriage penalty," part of the tax code that causes some married couples to pay higher taxes than they would if they filed separately as single persons. Other possible Republican tax measures may include cutting the capital gains tax rate, reducing the estate taxes and allowing the self-employed to deduct 100 percent of their health insurance premiums. But with a scant 11-vote margin in the House and a 10-vote margin in the Senate a broad income tax reduction or wide ranging reform of the tax code is unlikely this session. Health care reformAnother top priority for the Clinton Administration has been a patients' bill of rights for those enrolled in health maintenance organizations (HMOs). 
Democrats and Republicans struggled in 1998 over competing provisions in the HMO reform bills. The president supports new consumer protection, including the right to emergency room insurance coverage, easier access to medical specialists, reform of appeal procedures and a repeal of the federal ban on consumers suing health plans. Republicans want tax breaks and strongly oppose allowing consumers the right to sue health plans. Other legislation left over from the 105th Congress includes a measure to tighten bankruptcy law that the House and Senate passed in different forms last year. Democrats may also resubmit bills to overhaul campaign finance rules and to impose a national settlement on the tobacco industry. While both sides have recognized the need to do more concerning education, Democrats want to continue funding for a program to hire 100,000 elementary school teachers and new money for school construction. Republicans emphasize local control, better teachers and new ideas such as education savings accounts. Republicans will also try to avoid a repeat of last year's budget fiasco, which resulted in a $520 billion omnibus spending bill. The 13 separate appropriations bill should have been completed by October 1, 1998 but the more the 4,000-page measure was not signed by the president until October 21. Although the bill included something for everyone, some conservative Republicans were upset their leadership made too many compromises with the administration. In the 106th Congress compromise may be necessary in the defense budget. Clinton pledges to boost spending by $110 billion over six years but Republicans insist that is still not enough to improve readiness and are determined to build a national anti-missile defense system. CQ's Andrew Taylor, Mary Agnes Carey, Karen Foerstel and The Associated Press contributed to this report.MORE STORIES:Wednesday January 6, 1999
• Senate urged to call Lewinsky, Currie, Jordan as witnesses • An impeachment trial primer: what you need to know • New Hampshire poll shows Dole, Bush leading GOP pack • New speaker calls for end to partisan stalemate • Getting tickets to watch impeachment trial • U.S. budget surplus to be larger than expected • What's ahead for the 106th Congress? • Transcript: Elizabeth Dole on 'Late Edition' • Two big-name writers focus on Hillary Clinton • Text of Speaker Hastert's speech • Congress convenes, Hastert elected House speaker • Ex-Sen. Moseley-Braun to advise on school renovation • Lawmakers debate boosting Medicare's eligibility age |
