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ELECTION 98 MAIN|
|REMOTE NAVIGATOR

COMMUNITY

Post your opinions on the November races

Poll: Shift toward Democrats could be happening

By Keating Holland/CNN

ATLANTA (November 2) -- Fifty-two percent of likely voters say they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, while 48 percent of likely voters said they would vote Republican, according to a final, pre-election CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll.

That four-point lead for the Democrats is well within the poll's sampling error, but it indicates that a possible last-minute shift toward Democratic candidates may be underway. Voters have changed their minds in the weekend before previous elections only to change their minds once again in the final 24 hours before the polling places actually open.

Also, with 435 separate races for Congress underway, no single national poll can forecast the results. The bottom line is the election is still too close to call, which means that control of the U.S. House of Representatives may be up for grabs on Tuesday night.

The survey was based on interviews with 2,084 adult Americans, including 1,105 likely voters, conducted October 29-November 1.

Here are the results:

Likely Voters' Choice for Congress

Democratic 52%
Republican 48%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

What effect will the Monica Lewinsky matter have on Tuesday's election? Most likely voters say they will not be sending a message about Clinton and Lewinsky with their vote. And the number who say their vote will be a signal of support for Clinton exactly matches the number who say they will be voting against Clinton on Tuesday. That means that the pro-Clinton and anti-Clinton voters may simply cancel each other out, leaving the election in the hands of those who say that the Lewinsky matter will not affect their vote.

Clinton may give Democratic congressional candidates a slight boost nationwide , a far cry from 1994. Forty-six percent of all likely voters say they are more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who supports Clinton, while 40 percent say they are more likely to vote for one who opposes the president. In 1994, a majority said they were more likely to vote for an opponent of Clinton.

Lewinsky Matter Will Make Your Vote a Message That You...

Support Clinton 23%
Oppose Clinton 23
Clinton not a factor 52
Asked of likely voters
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

More Likely To Vote For A Candidate Who...

  Now 1994
Supports Clinton 46% 39%
Opposes Clinton 40 51
Asked of likely voters
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

The public's changes over the weekend were a loss of momentum for the GOP more than they were a gain for the Democrats. In an October 23-25 poll, 67 percent of Republicans nationwide said that they were extremely or very motivated to vote. Now only 59 percent feel that way, leaving the GOP in a virtual tie with the Democrats.

Enthusiasm about voting has also changed. In late October, 51 percent of Democrats said that they were less enthusiastic about voting than usual and only 32 percent said they were more enthusiastic than usual. Now 39 percent of Democrats say more and 44 percent say less. That puts them on a par with rank-and-file Republicans nationwide. Thirty-nine percent of all Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual and 46 percent say they are less enthusiastic. The number of Republicans who say they are extremely motivated or very motivated to vote has gone down since last weekend, while that figure has held steady among Democrats.

The election, however, does not appear to be whipping up enthusiasm in either party and anything can happen in an election with low turnout.

Extremely Or Very Motivated To Vote This Year

  Democrats Republicans
Now 57% 59%
Oct. 23-25 56 67
Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Enthusiasm About Voting

  Democrats Republicans
Less than usual 44% 46%
More than usual 39 39
Sampling error: +/-4% pts

More Enthusiasm About Voting Than Usual

  Now Oct. 23-25
Democrats 39% 32%
Republicans 39 44
Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Democrats' Enthusiasm About Voting

  Now Oct. 23-25
Less than usual 44% 51%
More than usual 39 32
Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Democratic candidates have a few minor advantages this fall. By a 46-37 percent margin, Americans say that the Democrats will do a better job than the Republicans of keeping the country prosperous. That's a switch from April, when the parties were essentially tied, and represents a big change from 1994, when the Democrats lost control of Congress.

Given the fact that two-thirds say the national economy is excellent or good, that may help the Democrats on Tuesday. One caution is that 69 percent said that the economy was getting better in March and only 21% said it was getting worse. Today only 51 percent say things are getting better, while 38 percent say things are getting worse.

Who Will Keep Country Prosperous?

  Democrats Republicans
Now 46% 37%
April 42 43
Asked of all Americans
Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts

Who Will Keep Country Prosperous?


Democrats Republicans
Now 46% 37%
1994 38 48

Asked of all Americans
Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts

Economic Conditions Today

Excellent/good 66%
Only fair/poor 33
Asked of all Americans
Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts

Economic Conditions Are...


Now March
Getting better 51% 69%
Getting worse 38 21

Asked of all Americans
Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts

Bill Clinton's job approval rating is holding steady, but nearly half of all Americans now disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. Earlier this month, the public was split 47-46 percent over whether Congress was doing a good job.

Now 47 percent disapprove of Congress and only 44 percent approve. Significantly, likely voters are even less willing to give Congress a positive rating than the general public. But the current figures are nowhere near the anger Congress faced as the 1994 elections approached. Just before that historic election, only a quarter approved of the way Congress was handling its job.

Clinton Job Approval Rating


Approve Disapprove
Now 66% 30%
Oct. 9-12 65 32

Asked of all Americans
Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts

Congress Job Approval Rating


Approve Disapprove
Now 44% 47%
Oct. 9-12 47 46

Asked of all Americans
Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts

Congress Job Approval Rating


Approve Disapprove
Now 44% 47%
1994 23 70

Asked of all Americans
Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts

Congress Job Approval Rating


Approve Disapprove
All Americans 44% 47%
Likely Voters 23 51

Sampling error: +/-3% pts


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Monday, November 2, 1998

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