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Poll: GOP enthusiasm higher as election approachesBut the public still opposes impeachmentBy Keating Holland/CNN
WASHINGTON (October 26) -- Republicans have the edge in voter enthusiasm as the November 3 midterm elections draw near, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. If next week's congressional elections were held today, 49 percent of all likely voters would choose the Republican candidate for Congress in their district and 47 percent would pick the Democratic candidate, the poll shows.
That two-point lead for the GOP is statistically insignificant, but the Republicans hold a significant advantage when it comes to turnout, according to the survey released Monday afternoon. A plurality of all Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, while a majority of all Democrats say they are less enthusiastic than usual. Enthusiasm among Democrats is waning this year while holding steady among the GOP rank and file. The Democrats faced a similar uphill fight to get its voters to the polls in 1994. Then, 50 percent of all Democrats said they were less enthusiastic than usual; today 51 percent do, and only 32 percent of Democrats say they are more enthusiastic about voting. The number of Democrats who say they are more enthusiastic has dropped nine points in only two weeks, another danger sign for Democratic candidates. More Republicans than Democrats also say they are extremely or very motivated to vote -- and motivation among Republicans has gone up in the past two weeks while remaining virtually unchanged among Democrats. The October 23-25 survey included interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 519 likely voters, and has a margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points for the entire group and +/- 5 percentage points for the sub-sample of likely voters. Here are the questions and results: If the election for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district? Likely Voters' Choice for Congress
Republican 49% Sampling error: +/-5% pts Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic? Enthusiasm About Voting
Sampling error: +/-5% pts Democrats' Enthusiasm About Voting
Sampling error: +/-5% pts More Enthusiasm Than Usual About Voting This Year
Sampling error: +/-5% pts How motivated do you feel to get out and vote this year -- extremely motivated, very motivated, somewhat motivated, not too motivated, or not motivated at all? Extremely Or Very Motivated To Vote This Year
Thumbs up for Clinton's role in Mideast peace talksMore than three-quarters of all Americans approve of President Bill Clinton's handling of the recent Middle East peace talks, but that has not affected his overall job approval rating. Nonetheless, at 65 percent, the number of Americans who approve of how Clinton is handling his job overall is slightly higher than President Ronald Reagan's just before the midterm elections of 1986 and significantly higher than President Dwight Eisenhower's before the 1958 midterms. The GOP lost strength in Congress in both of those elections, despite the fact that large majorities approved of the job Eisenhower and Reagan were doing at the time. A full 70 percent think that Clinton's policies would move the country in the right direction; only 47 percent say that about the Republican leaders in the House and Senate. But that may not help Democrats this November, since nearly half the public says the country would be the same regardless of which party controls Congress. Six people in 10 continue to say they want their member of the House of Representatives to vote against impeachment. But half say that they will not be sending a message about impeachment when they vote next week. Do you approve or disapprove of President Clinton's handling of the recent Middle East peace talks? How Clinton Handled Mideast Peace Talks
Approve 78% Sampling error: +/-3% pts Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president? Clinton's Overall Job Approval Rating
Now 65% Sampling error: +/-3% pts Do you think the policies being proposed by President Clinton would move the country in the right direction or the wrong direction? Clinton's Policies Would Move Country in...
Right direction 70% Sampling error: +/-3% pts Do you think the policies being proposed by the Republican leaders in the U.S. House and Senate would move the country in the right direction or the wrong direction? GOP Leaders's Policies Would Move Country In...
Right direction 47% Sampling error: +/-3% pts Do you think the country would be better off if the Republicans controlled Congress, if the Democrats controlled Congress, or would the country be the same regardless of which party controlled Congress? Country Better Off If...
GOP controlled Congress 24% Sampling error: +/-3% pts Continuing opposition to impeachmentAs you may know, removing a president from office involves two major steps in Congress. First, the House of Representatives must vote on whether there is enough evidence to bring a president to trial before the Senate. This step is called impeachment. Next, the Senate must vote on whether to remove the president from office, or not. What would you want your member of the House of Representatives to do: 1) Vote in favor of impeaching Clinton and sending the case to the Senate for trial, or 2) Vote against impeachment of Clinton? Your Member of Congress Should Vote...
Sampling error: +/-3% pts What effect, if any, will the Monica Lewinsky matter have on your vote for Congress in November? Will your vote for a candidate be made in order to send a message that you support Bill Clinton, be made in order to send a message that you oppose Bill Clinton, or will you not be sending a message about Bill Clinton with your vote? Your Vote Will Send a Message...
Sampling error: +/-5% pts | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MORE STORIES:Monday, October 26, 1998
• Poll: GOP enthusiasm higher as election approaches • Clinton attorney participated in depositions on Jones' sex life • Investigators: new details on how overseas companies funded Democratic donations
• President passed the hat in California • Political controversy brewing in wake of state senator killing • Poll: Davis ahead in Calif Governor race • Davis outspends Lungren in California race • Massachusetts, Rhode Island governor battles tightening • Lesbian challenges California congressman • GOP predicts gains in elections • South Carolina governor in surprise close race • GOP backs Alaska write-in candidate • Arizona, Massachusetts seek 'clean elections' • Poll: Fob James trails in Alabama race • Arizona to vote on cockfighting ban • Feingold rejects soft-money ads | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
