Clinton Scandal May Hurt Democratic Turnout

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Democratic voters disheartened by President Clinton's relationship with Monica Lewinsky and a political system "on the brink of moral bankruptcy" might not vote on Nov. 3, a bipartisan poll says.

That would help give Republicans the edge, especially in races for open congressional seats, says Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who joined forces with GOP pollster Ed Goeas to release their "Battleground 1998" survey today.

The poll says Clinton's personal problems have elevated "moral and religious issues" to the top of the voters' agenda. It ties with crime and drugs as the No. 1 problem facing the nation.

Voters surveyed give the Democratic Party credit for an improved economy, yet the poll suggests that Democrats won't do well in November unless they shift discussion away from Clinton and moral values and rally their party's constituents around issues like Social Security, health care and education.

The Aug. 23-25 telephone survey of 1,000 registered voters found 35 percent of respondents identifying themselves as Republicans, 34 percent Democrats. But when the focus turns to those who say they are extremely likely to vote, the Republicans take the lead, 38 percent to 32 percent.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

"Democratic voters, demoralized by President Clinton's problems and seeing little incentive to vote for politicians and a system teetering on the brink of moral bankruptcy, may choose to stay home on Nov. 3 while Republicans may turn out at average or higher than average levels to help cure the moral ills of politics," Lake says.

A Pew Research Center poll released late last month following Clinton's Aug. 17 grand jury testimony found 61 percent said the Clinton-Lewinsky controversy would not affect their vote in November.

In the upcoming congressional elections, a gain of 11 seats would give Democrats control of the House, which would hold impeachment proceedings if warranted. Goeas says that's not likely.

He says Republicans' advantage in key House and Senate races and the fact that Republican voters are showing a higher tendency to vote could allow the GOP to pick up 15 to 20 House seats and give Republicans a better than even chance of reaching 60 seats in the Senate.

"The bottom line is that Americans are deeply troubled by the president's actions, a fact that will be much more tangible on November 3," Goeas says.

According to the poll, frequent voters like seniors, college graduates and married people identify themselves more as Republicans than Democrats. The GOP advantage among seniors is 36 percent to 31 percent Democrat; college graduates, 38 percent to 30 percent; and married people, 40 percent to 29 percent.

The poll says 62 percent of voters disapprove of Clinton personally. His job approval rating, however, stands at 56 percent, down from the mid- to low 60s before admitting he lied about having what he called an "inappropriate relationship" with Ms. Lewinsky, a former White House intern.

Goeas says Clinton's high job approval rating simply parallels a humming economy. Voters separate their personal feelings about Clinton from their hope of seeing him make the country, and themselves, more prosperous, he says. "The president's job approval numbers have become nothing more than an economic indicator," Goeas says.

The poll imparts still other bad news for Democrats: Clinton's troubles have elevated moral values to the top of the voters' agenda. When voters were asked to name the most important problem in the nation, moral and religious issues jumped 10 percentage points since the bipartisan poll's results in January. At 14 percent, it now ties with crime and drugs as the nation's key problem.

Restoring moral values also is the top response when voters were asked what should be the main focus of Congress. At 22 percent, it was followed closely by education at 19 percent. Reducing taxes and federal spending and fighting crime and jobs stood at 13 percent and 12 percent, respectively.

"The scandals have drowned out the discussion of the issues health care, education and Social Security that help the Democrats," Lake says. "The scandals have also added to the volatility of the senior voters who will be critical in low-turnout elections. Senior women, a key Democratic constituency, have been particularly troubled by recent events."

(08 Sep 1998 01:57 EDT)

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Tuesday September 8, 1998

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