Campaign Finance Issue Could Be Key To Expensive Kentucky Battle
By Erika Niedowski, CQ Staff Writer
(CQ, May 9) -- For the last few years, the gospel according to Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell has been this: The issue of campaign finance has never energized the public or influenced the outcome of a single congressional campaign.
Yet this year, McConnell's own state of Kentucky could put that theory to the test in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Wendell H. Ford, a contest expected to be the most expensive in state history.
The race could pit 6th District Rep. Scotty Baesler, a pro-overhaul Democrat who supported the effort to force House leaders to bring campaign finance legislation to the floor, against 4th District Rep. Jim Bunning, an anti-overhaul Republican who counts McConnell as one of his most enthusiastic backers. (Discharge petition, CQ Weekly, p. 1057)
"I think it could" be an issue, declared Baesler, "and it will."
But first, Baesler must overcome a campaign finance obstacle of his own: He is facing a serious May 26 primary challenge from an independently wealthy cable executive who already has spent about $3 million, most of it his own money, just on radio and television advertising.
Democrat Charlie Owen, who boasts that he does not take contributions from political action committees or lobbyists, says that he has to tap his personal fortune to avoid being "bought" by special interests.
"We're for [overhaul]," said Kim Geveden, Owen's campaign manager. "Charlie thinks it's wrong that he has to spend as much money as he has to spend to interrupt the politics-as-usual process."
By the end of March, Baesler had raised slightly more than the $1 million Owen plans to spend on media in the last three weeks of the campaign. Baesler contends that his wealthy opponent is just being self-righteous.
"This is a fella who's trying to buy an election," he said.
Owen's millions seem to have moved public opinion polls, but there is debate over how much.
At the start of the year, he barely registered in polls against Baesler and Lt. Gov. Steve Henry, the third Democrat in the race. A recent Mason-Dixon poll showed Baesler at 35 percent, Henry at 17 percent and Owen at 12 percent, with 36 percent undecided. An internal survey taken for Owen, however, showed Baesler at 37 percent, with Owen in second place 14 percentage points behind.
If nothing else, Owen's resources have given him a chance to shape the debate. He has been clogging the airwaves with ads attacking, among other things, Baesler's vote against last year's balanced-budget bill to which Baesler has launched his own on-the-air response. (1997 CQ Weekly, p. 1831)
Henry, meanwhile, has started running spots that portray him as a political purist.
"Charlie and Scotty have been duking it out," said Marc Gaunce, Henry's campaign manager. "We have been the positive candidate in the race."
Whoever wins the Democratic nomination is almost sure to face Bunning in November. The six-term lawmaker and baseball Hall of Fame pitcher has only token opposition from state Sen. Barry Metcalf in the Republican primary.
Republicans see this race in the increasingly GOP South as one of their best chances to pick up a Senate seat and edge closer toward a filibuster-proof, 60-seat majority.
McConnell, who as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee controls the flow of money to all 34 Senate races this year, will likely make it a test of his influence both in Washington and back home.
Although observers have been predicting a Bunning-Baesler match-up for months, Owen says he is the only one who can compete with the money Bunning is expected to raise, and the help McConnell is expected to give him.
"[McConnell] will be the one tasked with flying around the country with his money bag picking up checks all across the country and bringing them back to Kentucky," said Geveden.
Competitve Districts
Bunning's and Baesler's Senate hopes have left two competitive open-seat races in the 4th and 6th districts, where the candidates had raised more than $3.5 million combined by the end of March, more than twice the amount Bunning and Baesler spent on their 1996 campaigns.
In the 4th, which encompasses north and east Kentucky, the action is in the Republican primary. Rather than a showdown between a moderate and a conservative, which has become increasingly common for the GOP this year, this campaign is a battle between two conservatives.
State Sen. Gex "Jay" Williams, who is thought to have an edge over former Bunning aide Rick Robinson and little-known lawyer James Kidney, has made his staunch opposition to abortion a centerpiece of his campaign. He has tried with success to position himself as the candidate of the Christian right.
Williams' consultant is former Christian Coalition executive director Ralph Reed, and he has some key conservative endorsements, including support from Gary Bauer of the Family Research Council, William Bennett of Empower America, James Dobson of Focus on the Family and 2000 presidential aspirant Malcolm S. "Steve" Forbes Jr.
Dobson is doing a radio endorsement for him, and Bauer and Bennett are flying in for fundraisers during the next two weeks.
But Robinson, who also is anti-abortion, has refused to cede the grass-roots base.
"I believe life begins at conception," he wrote in one fundraising appeal. "I believe God is the author of life."
Robinson has an impressive endorsement of his own -- Bunning's, which one GOP fundraiser called the "silver bullet." But because the lawmaker has been busy with his own campaign, what could be even more important is an independent effort by the Wisconsin-based Americans for Limited Terms targeting Williams. That group plans to run $100,000 worth of TV issue ads against Williams for not signing its term limits pledge of three House terms.
On the Democratic side, Boone County Judge-Executive Ken Lucas is expected to defeat doctor Howard Feinberg in the primary. Lucas's conservatism, which has won him the endorsement of the "Blue Dog" and New Democrat coalitions in the House, could make him a serious contender in the fall, even in the GOP-leaning district.
In the east-central 6th District, the Democratic primary has become a free-for-all.
Of the seven candidates seeking the nomination, three have emerged as leaders: state Sens. John "Eck" Rose and Ernesto Scorsone and Lexington Vice Mayor Teresa Isaac.
Rose, who was deposed as president of the state Senate in 1997 after a coup involving a clique of fellow Democrats, has been considered the front-runner from the start. But Scorsone has the backing of the state AFL-CIO and the Kentucky Education Association. Isaac stands out as the only woman in the crowded field.
Campaign finance figures show a different group of leaders altogether. The top fundraisers were former White House aide Jonathan Miller, who brought in more than $490,000 by March 31; Madison County prosecutor Bobby Russell, who raised nearly $455,000; and lawyer James Newberry, who took in just under $380,000.
Rose had the most cash on hand, with $181,000. Scorsone had $84,000; Isaac, who is still answering questions about a lawsuit over unpaid credit card debt, had just $59,000.
Ultimately, geography could influence the race as much as money. Scorsone, Isaac, Miller and Newberry all share Lexington as a home base, which likely will mean a fracturing of the city's vote. That could give an advantage to either Rose or Russell, who come from other parts of the district. Russell was the first candidate to attack Independent Counsel Kenneth W. Starr on the airwaves over his multimillion-dollar investigation of President Clinton. (CQ Weekly, p. 835)
The Democratic victor will likely be in for a hard-fought race against Republican Ernie Fletcher, a physician and Baptist minister who took 44 percent of the vote against Baesler as the party's 1996 nominee. Fletcher, whose primary opponent is businessman Jay Whitehead, had nearly $270,000 in his treasury at the end of March.
In the state's only other seriously contested primary, two Democrats are fighting for the right to take on 3rd District Rep. Anne Northup, the only GOP candidate to unseat an incumbent two years ago in a district Clinton carried by a majority. She beat then-freshman Democrat Mike Ward by fewer than 1,300 votes and has been a conservative loyalist in the 105th Congress. (In the 1994 primary, Owen lost the Democratic nomination to Ward.)
The Democratic establishment, including Gov. Paul E. Patton, has thrown its weight behind former state Attorney General Chris Gorman, who scored the endorsement of the state AFL-CIO in April. But Gorman's opponent, Virginia Woodward, former executive director of the state Commission on Women, has not let up. While Gorman emphasizes his 24 years of experience in public office, Woodward talks about her "working-class roots" and outsider status.
Even though Northup will likely be a top target of labor unions this year, she will be a formidable opponent in the fall: She had more than $643,000 on hand at the end of the first quarter.
Boosting Voter Turnout
With unprecedented expenditures being made in the Senate race at the top of the ticket, primary candidates across the board may draw some benefit on Election Day if energized voters turn out in higher numbers to cast ballots. The same could be true in November.
Another factor that could boost turnout is the result of a recent change in state election law.
For the first time in Kentucky history, all candidates for local offices, such as sheriff and county commissioner, will appear on the same ballot as contenders for federal office. That means that statewide there will be about 3,000 elections.
"We're expecting a good turnout, and that means you have a lot of infrequent voters voting," said Geveden, Owen's campaign manager. Switching the subject back to money, he added, "And that means that media will play a larger role than normal."
With two weeks to go before his political fate is decided, though, Owen hasno doubts about the cash he is spending on the campaign. Dropping millions into the race, said Geveden, has been "the best investment he's ever made."
© 1998 Congressional Quarterly Inc. All Rights Reserved.
|
News
Click here