Bayh Likely To Pick Up Senate Seat in Indiana; Fundraising Troubles GOP

(CQ, April 18) -- Indiana has voted for an unbroken line of Republican presidential candidates dating back to 1968, but former Gov. Evan Bayh is expected to be the only Democrat this fall to make easy work of picking up a GOP Senate seat.

Bayh hopes to recapture the seat his Democratic father, Birch, once held (1963-81). Republican Sen. Daniel R. Coats is retiring after one full term.

The field of Republicans gathered for the May 5 primary is mildly contentious. Peter Rusthoven, a former Reagan administration counsel and speechwriter, enjoys support from the state party establishment, but Fort Wayne Mayor Paul Helmke remains better known.

The liveliest House contests will take place in the southern third of the state. Former state Rep. Baron Hill will attempt to hold for the Democrats the 9th District seat being vacated by 17-term Rep. Lee H. Hamilton.

Former state Sen. Jean Leising, who came within a few whiskers of unseating Hamilton in 1994 but lost more decisively in their 1996 rematch, is hoping the third time will prove to be the charm. Her most formidable primary opponent is Michael E. Bailey, an anti-abortion activist who was Hamilton's opponent in 1992.

Just to the west in the 8th District, Democrats are hoping that Republican Rep. John Hostettler remains vulnerable after winning his two terms by narrow margins. They have essentially cleared the field for Evansville City Councilwoman Gail Riecken to oppose him.

In the Indianapolis 10th, freshman Democrat Julia Carson has made a few missteps during her first term but will be favored to hold the seat against any of her prospective opponents.

She most likely faces a rematch against former state Sen. Virginia Blankenbaker. But 1994 GOP nominee Marvin Scott and jeweler Gary Hofmeister are also seeking the Republican nod.

Bayh is a personally attractive figure Democrats hope to groom for national stardom (he gave the keynote address at the party's 1996 convention).

Bayh was governor from 1989 to 1997, presiding over a healthy economy and leaving the state with a $1.7 billion surplus. He also implemented an overhaul of the state's welfare program that led to a decline in the rolls ahead of the federal welfare law (PL 104-193). (1996 Almanac, p. 6-3)

Indiana Republicans complain that Bayh has shamelessly stolen many of their issues. But such supposed appropriation has left many groups that normally would be expected to oppose a Democrat, including business interests, content with Bayh, lending him support or at least staying neutral.

That has made fundraising tough for the Republican hopefuls. None of the three GOP candidates has yet broken the million-dollar mark in fundraising, while Bayh, who enjoys a free ride in the primary, has raised more than four times that amount.

Leading the financial charge is Rusthoven. He is considered an articulate bearer of the conservative word on social and fiscal issues.

Rusthoven has been more vociferous in his criticism of President Clinton's ethics than most Republican candidates nationwide thus far, arguing that moral values "are more important than Dow Jones stock values in measuring the greatness of America."

Helmke, meanwhile, has caused enmity in GOP circles with his embrace of some Clinton budget proposals and general friendliness toward the president (the two were classmates at Yale Law School).

Helmke is president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors and is focusing his message on the idea that local government control is preferable to federally mandated decisions.

Hill, who faces nominal primary opposition, has gotten off to a good start as Hamilton's anointed successor, raising far more money than his Republican opponents and campaigning to build on the name recognition he enjoys in southeastern Indiana.

"I think Baron Hill is going to be tough to beat, particularly since he's not in the typical Democratic position of being underfunded," said Thomas Wolf, a political scientist at the Indiana University campus in New Albany.

Leising has antagonized many Republican Party officials in the past by loudly complaining about insufficient financial support for her runs against Hamilton. Her fundraising remains in poor shape, but, she claims, "I purposefully let my contributor base rest" during 1997.

Bailey, who has virtually no money for advertising, enjoys a core of support among religious conservatives and has been spending his time in discount store parking lots handing out literature. He won national attention in 1992 with TV ads picturing aborted fetuses, but he has pledged not to run such ads again if nominated.

Here's Carson

Carson had some difficulty finding her footing in Washington. Heart bypass surgery delayed the start of her term, and she was sued by the city of Indianapolis to recover the cost of destroying a property she owned.

But Carson, a perpetually underrated campaigner, likes to joke that her biggest worry now is that for the first time in her long political career she's starting out the race ahead in the polls.

Republicans are hopeful they can erase Carson's lead. Blankenbaker is favored to make it a rematch, but faces familiar charges from within the GOP that she is too liberal to present a meaningful contrast with Carson. (Blankenbaker supports abortion rights and gun control and opposes the death penalty.)

"When you've got two liberals running, there is no reason for people to switch over from the other party," said GOP state Rep. R. Michael Young.

Young is managing Hofmeister's effort, which enjoys the support of prominent social conservatives.

© 1998 Congressional Quarterly Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Saturday April 18, 1998

• Bayh Likely To Pick Up Senate Seat in Indiana; Fundraising Troubles GOP
• Funds For Others -- Or Maybe Themselves
• Ohio Is Testing Ground For Parties' Plans To Keep or Capture House
• Democrats on the Hill Appear Underwhelmed by Probe, Await Starr Report to House
• Members Go Out on a Limb Over National Forests