One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

---

Illinois Senate Race Will Be Nasty, Expensive

By Stuart Rothenberg

The GOP primary to pick an opponent for incumbent Democrat Carol Moseley-Braun ended up being a nasty slugfest, with conservative state Sen. Peter Fitzgerald beating moderate state Comptroller Loleta Didrickson.

Although Didrickson immediately endorsed Fitzgerald, the bitterness between the two wings of the GOP was apparent in the final days of the campaign, with Gov. Jim Edgar (R), a Didrickson supporter, calling Fitzgerald's campaign "out of control," and painting his position on abortion as "extreme."

Fitzgerald overwhelmed Didrickson with dollars and political ads, successfully portraying her as a liberal and himself as a conservative and an outsider. And some GOP insiders are second-guessing Didrickson's tactics, noting that she spent heavily on expensive TV spots but little on direct mail or telephone calls, just like establishment-backed primary loser Bob Kustra did two years ago.

A Mason-Dixon poll conducted shortly before the primary showed Moseley-Braun holding a statistically insignificant 42-41 percent lead over Fitzgerald. Initial general election polls should show the senator with a bigger lead, as moderate Republicans try to decide whether they should support Fitzgerald. And Democrats have plenty of ammunition to use against the state legislator as they prepare to paint him as "another Al Salvi" and as "out of the political mainstream."

But Fitzgerald's personal wealth, moderate positions on the assault weapons ban and the Brady Bill, and less threatening style (than Salvi's) has the potential of making him a tough opponent for Moseley-Braun. And the fact that Fitzgerald's positions on guns and abortion, to name just two hot-button issues, are virtually identical with those of the Democrats' gubernatorial nominee, Glenn Poshard, makes it more difficult for Illinois Democrats to paint Fitzgerald as a nut.

Expect a nasty, expensive and hard-fought battle. If Fitzgerald holds moderate GOP women and attracts ticket-splitters, he'll beat Moseley-Braun. If centrist suburban Republicans decide he's "extreme," the senator will beat him. In any case, the Senate race starts off as a tossup.

Also on the ballot:

Illinois Governor Cong. Glenn Poshard rode a wave of downstate support to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination over former state attorney general Roland Burris, attorney (and Richard Daley ally) John Schmidt, and former U.S. attorney Jim Burns. Burris, who held a lead until the final days, would almost certainly have been a disaster for the Democrats, so the party ducked a bullet in the primary.

Poshard could be the GOP's worst nightmare. A conservative Democrat from downstate Illinois (who didn't take PAC money while in Congress), he could cause problems for Republican nominee George Ryan if he can also get a good Democratic vote out of Cook County. Carol Moseley-Braun's presence on the ballot should help turn out Chicago Democrats.

The race is a tossup, but the Democrats have to feel quite good about their chances, and the Republicans have reason to be worried.

Illinois 13 State Rep. Judy Biggert held on for a narrow win over state Rep. Peter Roskam in the GOP primary. Roskam started far behind, but his heavy spending and conservative message helped him make up ground. But Biggert apparently outspent Roskam and wasn't overwhelmed in advertising (the way Loleta Didrickson was), and she avoided the upset. Biggert will hold the seat in November.

Illinois 19 The Republicans nominated Brent Winters for the third time in this district, as he easily beat businessman Jerry Berg. But Winters is yet again a clear underdog against state Rep. Dave Phelps, a moderate Democrat. The district is home to the Democrats' gubernatorial nominee, Glenn Poshard, which can't but help Phelps.

Thursday March 19, 1998

• Report: Willey Wanted To Sell Story To Supermarket Tab
• Counsel Named For Babbitt Probe
• 'Primary Colors' A Judgment On A Political Generation
• Microsoft Out-Lobbies Key Competitors
• GOP Women Accuse Democrats Of 'Selective Outrage'
• Lewinsky High School Classmate Testifies
• White House Scandal At A Glance
• Troopers Told Tucker Of Arranging Liaisons For Clinton
• The One That Got Away?
• Illinois Primary Results
• Deal Reached To Keep The Internet Tax-Free For Now
• Most Of California's Prop. 187 Ruled Unconstitutional
• Republicans Say No Decision Yet On How To Proceed With Starr Report

Documents:
• Julie Steele Affidavit