From Coup to Coo: GOP's Paxon Dashes Hopes of Rebels

Current leadership lineup likely to stay in place as rising star drops run for majority leader and trades politics for parenthood

By Jeffrey L. Katz, CQ Staff Writer

Rep. Bill Paxon's surprise announcement Feb. 25 that he was dropping his bid to be majority leader and would retire from the House greatly diminishes the likelihood of an insurgent campaign against the GOP leadership this year.

Paxon, 43, had resigned from the leadership ranks last July after being involved in an abortive coup against Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga. The five-term incumbent from suburban Buffalo, N.Y., had recently begun gearing up to run for majority leader at year's end, challenging Dick Armey, R-Texas, a Gingrich ally.

Paxon's campaign would have tapped into the lingering feeling among some House Republicans, particularly hard-core conservatives, that GOP leaders lack a coherent legislative agenda and are too accommodating to President Clinton. It would have also revisited the schisms that persisted after the attempt to topple Gingrich.

But just as Paxon was launching his quest to be majority leader, he said he felt an overwhelming desire to spend more time with his wife, former Rep. Susan Molinari, R-N.Y. (1990-97), and their toddler daughter, Susan Ruby.

"The priority of family must now take precedence over politics," Paxon said.

Within the Republican family, Paxon's decision stunned friends and foes alike. It made it much more likely that Gingrich as well as the leaders who had engaged in conversations to overthrow him would all retain their leadership positions into the 106th Congress.

Rebels from the GOP Class of '94 -- the core group of the disenchanted -- said that Paxon's retirement was a serious setback to developing new strategies to advance a conservative agenda. Many doubted that anyone else had the stature to compete for a leadership slot when the next Congress organizes late this year.

"I don't know who you get," said Mark Sanford, R-S.C. "The Young Turks crowd doesn't have a conference-wide appeal. Bill Paxon has a broad-based level appeal."

But while Paxon's announcement made it likely that current GOP House leaders will keep their posts, there were signs that that could change next year. There is a growing expectation that Gingrich will step down to run full-time for the GOP presidential nomination.

That could have a ripple effect throughout the leadership ranks. In what could be a serious long-term challenge to Armey's chances of moving into the Speakership if Gingrich departs, Appropriations Committee Chairman Robert L. Livingston, R-La. -- who recently appeared on the verge of retiring -- said he would run for Speaker if Gingrich leaves before the end of the next Congress.

Paxon was known much more for his political work than for any legislative activity. As chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), he was credited with recruiting and helping finance many of the candidates who enabled the GOP to win control of the House in 1994 for the first time in 40 years, and then retain its majority two years later.

Throughout much of his House tenure, Paxon was closely tied to Gingrich, who sponsored his rise and appointed him to the specially created position of Republican leadership meeting chairman in 1996.

A Surprising Move

All of Gingrich's top lieutenants reportedly engaged in conversations last summer about replacing him as Speaker. But only Paxon -- who was also the only top party officer not elected to his post -- lost his slot, becoming a martyr in the eyes of many of the dissidents.

Afterwards, Paxon remained active politically. He seemed poised to cash in on his field work for the NRCC, mining the Republican ranks for dissatisfaction with Armey and eager to present a fresh, telegenic face for the House GOP.

"I had the interest. I had the willpower. I had the support" to become majority leader, Paxon said while announcing that he was bowing out. But he said the quest to be majority leader made him realize how much time he would have to spend apart from his wife, now an anchor of a CBS Saturday morning news show, and his daughter, who is nearly 2.

"I cannot do this to her and I cannot do this to Susan," Paxon said.

The finality of his announcement seemed curious considering his career-long immersion in public life. At 23, he was the youngest-ever member of the Erie County Legislature. He later moved into the New York Assembly before capturing the House seat being vacated when GOP Rep. Jack F. Kemp sought the presidency in 1988.

"I'll never run for office again," Paxon said, "not even dog warden."

The outcome of the prospective majority leader's race had seemed very much in doubt. It seemed plausible that Paxon could have drawn support beyond the core group of rebels whose unhappiness with Gingrich prompted last July's coup attempt.

"I think it would have been a knock-down, drag-out race," said Jim McCrery, R-La., a five-term incumbent who had not yet chosen sides. "I don't think anyone could have predicted with any certainty the outcome."

Many of the rebels from the Class of '94 were glum after Paxon's announcement and groping to find someone to fill the void. Said one: "We don't have a good farm team. We have good, talented members, but not a lot in the rungs between leadership and the sophomore class."

A few of the sophomore conservatives, including Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and John Shadegg, R-Ariz., cautioned that the dissenters may yet try to flex their muscles. Shadegg said of the current leadership team: "Their duty to get out and lead and confront Bill Clinton with an agenda that's popular with the American people remains in front of them."

Given the damaging chaos of last summer's coup attempt -- in which some of those closest to a weakened Speaker were plotting against him -- it seems surprising that the elected leaders have stuck together and that all seem likely to be re-elected to their posts. Their fortunes may have been buoyed by favorable poll ratings for congressional incumbents, a healthy economy and a desire among many members to put the coup behind them.

"Part of it is due to Newt's ability to forgive, forget and move forward," McCrery said. Added E. Clay Shaw Jr., R-Fla., "The vast majority of the Republican Conference didn't have the stomach for revenge or continuing the coup."

Still, intrigue lurks beneath the surface. Current and former leadership aides say privately that the abortive coup left a residue of distrust and damaged relationships among the GOP hierarchy. Gingrich and Armey are said to have largely patched things up. But other leaders implicated in the insurrection -- Majority Whip Tom DeLay, R-Texas, and Republican Conference Chairman John A. Boehner, R-Ohio -- are viewed more warily.

While the Republican team is generally unified, said former Rep. Robert S. Walker, R-Pa. (1977-97), a friend and ally of the Speaker's, "I think there are still some hard feelings about their perception of what took place in the coup attempt last year."

Conservatives said they want the leaders to cut taxes and stand firmly against new spending programs, such as those proposed by Clinton. Some also pointed to the dearth of major legislative initiatives coming to the House floor as a bad sign.

"Right now, we're drifting," said David M. McIntosh, R-Ind., chairman of the Conservative Action Team, a coalition of some of the most conservative members.

Gingrich For President?

Besides Armey, the biggest winner in Paxon's decision to forgo the majority leader's race was Gingrich.

Many members said that the Speaker had rebounded from the abortive coup by focusing more attention on running the House and meeting with rank-and-file members.

Sherwood Boehlert, R-N.Y., said last summer's maneuvering "got [Gingrich] to refocus and assert himself. . . . There's a general skepticism about all the other players in this drama."

Walker said he believes that Gingrich will run for president only if the GOP field does not narrow to one or two strong candidates next year. By expressing his interest now in a campaign, Walker said, "It means that people writing about the presidential race can't look past him. I think that helps House Republicans."

But some members said they found it odd for Gingrich to seek another term as Speaker while actively pursuing a possible presidential bid. "It appears to be an awkward strategy," said one member who generally supports Gingrich.

However, Dan Meyer, Gingrich's former chief of staff, said, "Frankly, I don't see anybody lining up to run against him for Speaker, so I don't think it matters."

The expectation that Gingrich will step down in the midst of his next term may be discouraging challenges to other members of the leadership team, as would-be challengers wait for the ripple effect from the departure next year.

Armey is generally seen as the most vulnerable of the leaders. Questions remain about his administrative style. For instance, he is still blamed for an unpopular strategy of attaching GOP riders to a disaster relief bill for Midwestern flood victims last year in a failed attempt to force Clinton to accept them.

Armey is viewed as more of a loner than the other leaders, but aides note that he has been reaching out by busily campaigning for fellow Republicans. And they say he is actively promoting a legislative agenda designed to appeal to conservatives -- it includes a flat tax proposal and private school vouchers for District of Columbia students.

DeLay is generally viewed more favorably than Armey by the dissidents -- who say he was was more open about his role in the coup -- and more skeptically by Gingrich loyalists. But he is widely seen as working hard to build support with rank-and-file members, often in personal ways, by playing golf with some and offering a spread of food in his office for members to enjoy during late-night sessions.

DeLay appeared to be casting his lot with Paxon in the majority leader's race, and had visited with the New Yorker the night before Paxon's retirement announcement. DeLay said Paxon will be "missed by me probably more than anybody."

Saturday February 28, 1998

• Overhaul Gridlock on the Hill Contrasts With Action in States
• From Coup to Coo: GOP's Paxon Dashes Hopes of Rebels
• New York GOP Has Contender For Seat Paxon Is Vacating
• GOP Finds Little To Applaud In U.N. Deal With Iraq
• Battle Lines Forming in Senate Over Further NATO Expansion
• Money Woes Leave FEC Watchdog With More Bark Than Bite
• GOP Feels Warmth and Chill In the Shadow of Reagan