One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

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Capps Has A Slight Edge In March Runoff

In N.Y., Ferraro's entry may give Sen. D'Amato an opportunity

By Stuart Rothenberg

WASHINGTON (AllPolitics, Jan. 14) -- The special election to fill the seat of the late congressman Walter Capps was surprising for the lack of surprises it has produced so far. Capps's widow, Lois, finished first with 45 percent of the vote, while conservative Tom Bordonaro nipped moderate-to-liberal GOPer Brooks Firestone 29-25 percent for second place. That means Capps (D) will face Bordonaro (R) in the March 10 runoff to fill the late congressman's seat.

Turnout was high district-wide, but it was particularly strong in San Luis Obispo County, Bordonaro's political base.

Republican strategists were concerned going into Tuesday's balloting that Capps could win more than 50 percent of the total vote cast, which would have given her the election outright and made a runoff unnecessary. The California GOP made a major effort to distribute absentee ballots to Republican voters, and late in the race they dropped multiple pieces of direct mail accusing Capps of opposing the death penalty, opposing the $500-a-child tax credit and opposing the Juvenile Crime Control Act.

The mail pieces also portrayed the Democratic hopeful as a tool of "union bosses."

Democrats complain that the charges are inaccurate and that their candidate supports the death penalty and the $500-a-child tax credit.

A Capps-Bordonaro race should offer a straight liberal-conservative choice, though Capps is likely to emphasize her more moderate and conservative views and Bordornaro is likely to reach out to liberal Republicans who preferred Firestone in the first election.

While the 22nd C.D. is very competitive, it has a slight GOP tinge. (Bob Dole carried it over Bill Clinton in 1996.) But Capps has an edge for the March balloting, since it is far from clear that all Republicans will unite behind Bordonaro, who has already promised that he won't vote for Newt Gingrich as speaker if he is elected to Congress, and turn out in numbers large enough to defeat Capps.

The role of independent groups could be decisive. They clearly helped the underfunded Bordonaro beat Firestone, and both liberal and conservative groups are likely to spend heavily before the runoff. Expect a close contest, but give Capps a slight initial edge on the assumption that the Republicans are divided and the Democrats are not.

D'Amato's opportunity

New York Senate Former congresswoman Geraldine Ferrao's exit from CNN and entry into the 1998 Democratic Senate primary creates a headache for the two other Democrats already in the race and an opportunity for incumbent Sen. Al D'Amato (R).

Ferraro starts out with better name recognition than either Cong. Charles Schumer or New York City Public Advocate Mark Green, but she lacks the $8 million that Schumer already has in the bank and the early endorsements and claim on liberals that Green has worked so hard for.

But the media frenzy produced by Ferraro's announcement, including appearances on "Meet the Press" and "This Week With Sam And Cokie," reflect her celebrity status and must have her primary opponents frustrated and jealous.

The former congresswoman, and the first woman to be nominated for vice president by a major party, says that in just a few days she gathered pledges for more than $1 million in contributions, and she'll need to raise that money and much more to retain her lead in primary polls after Schumer starts to spend some of his war chest.

Of the three, Green's chances seem to be weakest. He needs Ferraro and Schumer to beat each others' brains out in TV ads so that he can rise above the fray and win the nomination. Schumer and Green must convince voters that Ferraro's time is past, while Ferraro needs to put together a strong campaign to match the early efforts of her two primary opponents. Schumer has already launched two spots on New York City TV. The ads portray him as an effective fighter for gun control and as a legislator who has fought to protect battered women. The ads also invoke the name of House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R), and portray the Democratic congressman as an adversary of Gingrich.

But while the Democrats have three credible candidates, party operatives are openly worried that D'Amato will prove to be the real beneficiary of Ferraro's candidacy. They worry that the September primary will produce a nominee with no money and plenty of wounds inflicted by fellow Democrats, and that D'Amato will hammer his Democratic opponent into defeat. That's a real concern for Democrats, and a good reason why Republicans feel more upbeat about the senator's chances than they did just a few months ago.

Wednesday Jan. 14, 1998

• Herman Focus Of Influence-Peddling Probe
• Hillary Clinton Questioned About FBI Files
• Republicans Call For End To 'Marriage Penalty'
• Democrat Capps Headed For A Runoff In Calif. Race
• Clinton Deposition Moved
• Clinton, Democratic Leaders Push Consumer Health Bill