Governors Matter in '98 Senate Outlook

By Stuart Rothenberg

(Dec. 20) -- The nation's sitting governors, as well as a handful of former governors, could play an important role in the 1998 Senate elections, deciding whether the GOP adds to its majority or whether Democrats regain some of the ground they lost over the past two election cycles.

Sitting senators Wendell Ford (D-KY), Kit Bond (R-MO), Bob Graham (D-FL), Fritz Hollings (D-SC), Judd Gregg (R-NH) and Richard Bryan (D-NV) all served as their states' chief executives, and their service as governor clearly helped their long-term political prospects.

But there are plenty of examples of popular governors, including recent examples Ben Nelson (D-NE) and William Weld (R-MA), who failed to move from their state capitols to Congress. Some, like Nelson, ran weak campaigns or were otherwise re-defined by their opponents. Others, like Weld, simply couldn't convince voters to dump an equally popular incumbent, especially when voters could keep both men (in Weld's case, him and John Kerry) in their respective offices at the same time.

Former Indiana governor Evan Bayh, a popular moderate Democrat who just finished serving two terms, is widely viewed as a Senate candidate in 1998. Bayh is seen as so strong that incumbent Republican Dan Coats has decided not to seek re-election rather than take on Bayh. Coats's decision, which surprised many observers, is a severe blow to the GOP. Senate incumbents have been hard to defeat, and Coats would have tested Bayh. But without an incumbent to defend the seat, Indiana Republicans will have a much harder time holding the seat.

Another potentially strong Senate candidate is Roy Romer of Colorado, who is widely mentioned as a possible candidate. Incumbent Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) switched to the GOP in mid-term, and Democrats would like nothing better than to knock off the party-switcher. Campbell may even have to fight for re-nomination. Democrats note that Romer has had two big election victories in a row and is widely liked by Colorado voters.

In Missouri, Gov. Mel Carnahan (D) is one of only two Democrats who receive frequent mention as serious potential challengers to Sen. Kit Bond. Carnahan was just re-elected easily.

But at least one big-name Democratic governor mentioned as a possible Senate hopeful apparently has decided against a Senate bid, Zell Miller of Georgia now says that he won't run for office when his current term ends, thereby ruling out a challenge to freshman Paul Coverdell (R).

And the Republicans may have a few governors of their own who'll seek to move up to the Senate. Ohio's George Voinovich is widely regarded as the likely Republican candidate for the seat currently held by John Glenn (D-OH). Glenn may well retire, presenting Democrats with the same predicament that Republicans have in Indiana.

In Iowa, Gov. Terry Branstad, elected governor four times, is mentioned as a possible Senate hopeful if incumbent Chuck Grassley (R) decides to run for governor rather than for another term in the Senate.

In South Carolina, a number of Republicans, including Gov. David Beasley, are mentioned as possible Senate hopefuls, and in Illinois, Gov. Jim Edgar (R) can't be ruled out as a challenger to Carol Moseley-Braun (D). Edgar, however, could well have a challenge for the nomination from within his own party, and that could affect his decision.

Finally, Republican insiders are hoping that they can recruit two sitting GOP governors in the Dakotas, Gov. Ed Schafer (ND) and Gov. Bill Janklow (SD) to take on incumbents Byron Dorgan in North Dakota and Tom Daschle in South Dakota.

Little by little these sitting and former governors will make their decisions about the Senate. And when they do, we'll all have a better idea which party will be better positioned for 1998 Senate contests.