Now It's Bill's Turn: The Search For A Legacy

By Stuart Rothenberg

(Nov. 26, 1996) -- Two years ago, when Newt Gingrich and the Republicans swept into Washington and took control of both houses of Congress, President Bill Clinton wisely let the Republicans dictate the agenda. Now, the Republicans are likely to return the favor, giving the president an opportunity to create the "Clinton Legacy," but also to make a major mistake that would re-ignite the Republican Revolution which stalled over the past 18 months.

Clinton's decision to withdraw from the limelight and give the Republicans enough rope to hang themselves clearly was wise. And while the president could not have competed successfully with Speaker Gingrich for the public's attention immediately after the 1994 elections, the president resisted every politician's first instinct: to come out fighting.

Instead, the president adopted the position of the boxer who wins by counter-punching, by waiting for his opponent to make a mistake. After weeks of arguing which side would make the first move in 1995, the GOP decided to put its budget proposals on the table, and that gave Clinton just the target he needed.

Now, the Republicans are likely to force the president to lay out his agenda before they offer their own. They know what happened last time, and most of them, apparently including Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, don't want to repeat their mistake.

But it isn't easy for all of the Republicans to sit around and wait. Many in the GOP House majority still want to take their agenda to the public -- and to the president -- and they are uncomfortable with the idea that they may have to waste time waiting on the president.

Still, the logical way for the Republicans to proceed is for them to make the president take the first move, whether on taxes, a balanced budget, welfare reform or campaign finance reform. Then, they can pick what they like and what they don't, shooting holes in the president's agenda.

All of this means that Bill Clinton must now decide what he wants to do in his second term, and how he wants to be remembered.

The president's first term was really two-in-one. The first two years were widely regarded as a failure -- with the Clinton health plan disaster being the symbol. The second two years were marked by the president's move to the middle, and by the passage of health care reform, welfare reform and the minimum wage hike. But although welfare reform was a huge step, it probably isn't huge enough to define the entire Clinton presidency. That means the president may try to make his mark elsewhere.

Other presidents have chosen to focus on foreign affairs in their second terms, but this president has never seemed particularly interested in international matters, apart from the Middle East.

That leaves domestic policy, and if we take Bill Clinton at his word, he wants to be known as the "education president." But tax credits and access to community colleges do not a legacy make, so the president will need to offer a more ambitious agenda if he wants to make a mark in that area.

President Clinton may look at a few other areas of possible activity. Health care is still something of a mess, but it is hard to imagine the president will go back to that land mine. A balanced budget would be a huge accomplishment, and the president might believe that he could make a real mark by accomplishing that. Or, the president might try to fix the nation's entitlement mess -- the real problem that faces the country -- in the hope of earning the reputation as the president who came to grips with Medicare and Social Security. Or, the president might address campaign finance reform -- an area where he has obvious vulnerability, but where he could hope to use the public's obvious frustrations to catapult a reform agenda.

What will the president do? Can he accomplish any or all of this? Or will the White House be so bogged down defending itself against ethics charges that the president will simply try to muddle though? Sorry, but my crystal ball is all fogged up....