Colorado

ELECTORAL VOTES: 8
STATE NAME: Centennial State
STATE CAPITAL: Denver

GOP PRIMARY DATE: Primary, March 5, 1996

The Colorado primary was part of Junior Tuesday. Alexander, Dole and Buchanan all made campaign stops there after New Hampshire. With no organization in the state, Forbes ran ads and made a campaign stop focusing on his flat tax message. Dole won the Colorado primary in what turned out to be a sweep of the Junior Tuesday primaries, when 10 states and the American Samoa held Republican contests.

Sen. Lugar and former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander quit the presidential race after poor showings in the March 5th primaries.

          Results                  Estimated Delegates Won (that day)
          -------                  ----------------------------------
Dole      43.6%                     14
Buchanan  21.5%                      7
Forbes    20.8%                      6
Alexander 10%

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY DATE: Primary, March 5, 1996

          Results                  Estimated Delegates Won (that day)
          -------                  ----------------------------------
Clinton    88.9%                       49
LaRouche   10.9%
Gunderson    .2%

(Source: Secretary of State via the phone)

PRIMARY EXIT POLL INFORMATION:

BUCHANAN WON AMONG VERY CONSERVATIVE VOTERS BY A 7-POINT MARGIN, BUT THOSE VOTERS WERE ONLY 24% OF THE ELECTORATE. 42% WERE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE, AND DOLE WON AMONG THIS LARGER GROUP BY A 47%-19% MARGIN.
59% SAID BUCHANAN IS TOO EXTREME. ONLY 38% SUPPORT A PLATFORM PLANK CALLING FOR A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT TO BAN ALL ABORTIONS.
JUST 31% SAY THEY ARE MEMBERS OF THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT, BUT 53% HAVE A FAVORABLE OPINION OF THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT.
DOLE WON 63% OF THE VOTERS AGE 65 OR OVER, BUT ONLY 37% OF THOSE UNDER 65.

PAST PRIMARY/GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS:

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE, 1992:    Clinton: 40%
                            Bush:    36%
                            Perot:   23%

CLINTON WON IN 1992; BUSH WON IN 1988; REAGAN IN 84; REAGAN IN 80; FORD WON IN 76, NIXON IN 72, NIXON IN 68, JOHNSON IN 64, NIXON IN 60

LAST TIME VOTED DEMOCRATIC FOR PRESIDENT: 1964

1992 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY SUMMARY:

Primary held March 3rd. Jerry Brown showed surprising strength, winning in a tight 3-way finish. His win was attributed to his "political outsider" pitch striking a chord with the state's independent-minded voters. The vote count was close all night, making the final results hard to call.

                                                             ESTIMATED DELEGATES WON
                            BROWN          28.8%                18
                            CLINTON        26.9%                14
                            TSONGAS        25.6%                15
                            KERREY         12.3%                 0
                            HARKIN          2.4%                 0
                            UNCOMM          2.2%                 0

1992 GOP CAUCUS SUMMARY:

Primary March 3. By this point, the White House was sending messages that Buchanan needed to get out of the race because he couldn't win and was hurting the president. Bush won the primary, but Buchanan kept fighting.

                                                  ESTIMATED DELEGATES WON:
                             BUSH         67.5%       26 
                             BUCHANAN     30.0%       11

PAST PRIMARY/GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE IN 1988:  BUSH       53%  
                            DUKAKIS    45%

CAUCUS VOTE 1988:           DUKAKIS  42.6%            BUSH            75.3%            
                            JACKSON  33.8%            ROBERTSON        9.3%            
                            UNCOMMIT 20.9%            DOLE             3.4%            
                                                      UNCOM           11.2%  

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE 1984:     REAGAN     63%                                           
                            MONDALE    35%                                           

CAUCUS VOTE 1984:           HART     80.5%                                        
                            MONDALE   9.8%              
                            JACKSON   4.1%                                        
                            UNCOM     5.6%                                        

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE IN 1980:  REAGAN     55%                                        
                            CARTER     31%                                        
                            ANDERSON   11%  

CAUCUS VOTE 1980:           CARTER   41.7%              
                            KENNEDY  29.5%              
                            UNCOM    28.8%

STATE DATA:

VOTING DATA:

PROJECTED VOTING AGE POPULATION AS OF 11/96: 2,488,000

TOTAL # REGISTERED VOTERS AS OF 6/96: 2,186,183

PARTY REGISTRATION AS OF 6/96:                                                 
                                   DEM                             684,816
                                   REP                             784,766
                                   UNDECLARED                      710,772
                                   LIBERTARIAN                       2,174

DEMOGRAPHICS:

  RACE: WHITE                  89.4% of voting age population    
        BLACK                   3.7%      "           "
        NATIVE AM.               .8%      "           "
        ASIAN                   1.7%      "           "
        OTHER                   4.4%      "           "
PERSONS OF HISPANIC ORIGIN ACCOUNT FOR 11.2% OF THE VOTING AGE POPULATION.
 (From 1990 Census)

STATE OF THE ECONOMY:

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AS OF 5/96:     4.0%      (Ranks 44th)   (Nat is 5.6%)
                  AS OF 5/92:     6.1%      (Ranks 38th)

STATE CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARIES: August 13, 1996

SEATS UP:: OPEN- Gov. Roy Romer (D) first elected in 1986, will have completed his third term in 1998. Not eligible to run for re-election because term limits were passed in 1990, setting a limit of 8 years.; OPEN- Sen. Hank Brown (R) first elected in 1990; He is NOT running for reelection.

OTHER STATEWIDE OFFICES:

Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) first elected in 1992 as a Democrat but switched parties in 1995. Next election is in 1998.

CONGRESS:: SENATE: 4R, 2D; CONGRESS: 2R

CONGRESSIONAL DEPARTURES:: Sen. Hank Brown (R), first elected in 1990, is retiring.; Rep. Pat Schroeder (D-1), first elected in 1972, is retiring.; Rep. Wayne Allard (R-4), first elected in 1990, is running for Senate.

STATE LEGISLATURE:: CONTROL STATE HOUSE: Republican; CONTROL STATE SENATE: Republican

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS:: State Senate 18 of 35; State House 65 of 65

REFORM PARTY:

Certified on ballot as: CANDIDATE; On 7/15 Perot submitted $500 and letter of intent. Since he was on the ballot in '92 he didn't need to submit signatures.

LATEST AND SIGNIFICANT PRESIDENTIAL POLLS:

Denver Post Poll

                      Clinton   Dole
   
5/14-22                47%      40%                           503 RV     +/- 4

Mason Dixon Poll

                      Clinton   Dole
   
2/26-28                43%      41%                           825 RV     +/-3.5

Mason Dixon Poll

                     Clinton   Dole  Perot

2/26-28                38%      37%   15%                     825 RV    +/-3.5

STATE TIDBITS:

Colorado will be a battleground in the general election. It is one of two Rocky Mountain states won by Clinton in 1992 (Montana is the other state). Clinton/Gore 96 already has opened an office in Colorado.
Gov. Roy Romer and Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt in February said a western presidential primary might give the region political clout like New Hampshire's and is worth pursuing. The Western Governors Association and the Western Legislative Conference have agreed to launch a research effort, and governors will meet in the summer to look at obstacles and benefits.
Colorado Springs, 70 miles south of Denver, has become home to conservative religious groups such as Focus on the Family. During the GOP primary, it was the Christian vote that turned out most favorably for Pat Buchanan.

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