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About the Tracking Polls
Previous Polls
Interviews with 728 likely voters, conducted October 3-13, 1996.
Likely Voters' Presidential Choice
Clinton
Dole
Perot |
54%
36%
4% |
| Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points |
Bill Clinton continues to maintain a significant lead over Bob Dole, with Clinton still winning a majority of all likely voters and Dole's support in the mid-30s. Today's results show that Clinton wins support from 54 percent percent of all voters, compared to 36 percent for Dole and 4 percent for Ross Perot.
The poll also indicates why a Republican attack on Clinton's personal character might not affect the race. Forty-eight percent of likely voters don't consider Clinton honest and trustworthy; 47 percent do. But do voters think Clinton is honest and trustworthy enough to be president? Fifty-five percent say yes, 40 percent say no.
Just as telling, only a fifth of all voters say that they rate a president more by his moral values than his stand on issues or his ability to manage government. Ability to manage government ranks the highest, with 43 percent of all likely voters ranking it as the most important characteristic in their opinion of a president. Positions on issues were chosen by 22 percent, and moral character by 21 percent.
Suppose that the 1996 presidential election were being held today
and it included Bill Clinton and Al Gore as the Democratic candidates, Bob
Dole and Jack Kemp as the Republican candidates, and Ross Perot and Pat
Choate as the Reform Party candidates. Would you vote for Bill Clinton and
Al Gore, the Democrats -- Bob Dole and Jack Kemp, the Republicans -- or
Ross Perot, the Reform Party candidate? (IF UNDECIDED:) As of today, do
you lean toward Clinton and Gore, the Democrats, Dole and Kemp, the Republicans, or Perot and Choate, the Reform Party candidates?
| Likely Voters |
|
|
Clinton
Dole
Perot |
10/4-5
54%
36%
5% |
10/5-6
55%
35%
5% |
10/6-7
56%
34%
5% |
10/7-8
55%
34%
6% |
10/8-9
50%
38%
6% |
10/9-10
51%
38%
5% |
10/10-11
57%
34%
4% |
10/11-12
56%
35%
4% |
10/12-13
54%
36%
4% |
Question to Perot voters: Who would be your second choice for President
-- Dole or Clinton?
| Likely Voters |
|
|
Clinton
Dole |
10/4-5
56%
38% |
10/5-6
58%
37% |
10/6-7
57%
36% |
10/7-8
57%
36% |
10/8-9
53%
40% |
10/9-10
54%
39% |
10/10-11
59%
35% |
10/11-12
58%
36% |
10/12-13
56%
37% |
Next, I will read off the names of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him.
| Likely Voters |
|
|
Bill Clinton
Favorable
Unfavorable |
9/2-4
61%
34% |
9/3-5
59%
35% |
9/27-29
63%
33% |
10/2-3
60%
37% |
10/3-4
58%
37% |
10/4-5
60%
34% |
10/5-6
62%
33% |
10/11-12
62%
35% |
10/12-13
60%
35% |
| Likely Voters |
|
|
Bob Dole
Favorable
Unfavorable |
9/2-4
54%
38% |
9/3-5
53%
27% |
9/27-29
50%
41% |
10/2-3
55%
37% |
10/3-4
55%
36% |
10/4-5
52%
38% |
10/5-6
52%
40% |
10/11-12
54%
39% |
10/12-13
56%
37% |
| Likely Voters |
|
|
Ross Perot
Favorable
Unfavorable |
9/2-4
27%
59% |
9/3-5
27%
57% |
9/27-29
28%
56% |
10/2-3
30%
56% |
10/3-4
28%
57% |
10/4-5
29%
55% |
10/5-6
30%
56% |
10/11-12
31%
55% |
10/12-13
31%
54% |
Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points
If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district -- the Democratic party's candidate or the Republican party's candidate? (IF UNDECIDED: Do you lean more toward the Democratic party's candidate or the Republican party's candidate?)
Likely Voters
Democratic
Republican |
9/6-8
50%
40% |
9/13-15
52%
42% |
9/20-22
48%
45% |
10/1-2
51%
43% |
10/11-12
53%
41% |
10/12-13
52%
42% |
| Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points |
Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me whether you think each of the following statements better applies to Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, or Ross Perot?
Would do a better job handling the economy:
Clinton
Dole
Perot
None* |
10/4-5
46%
32%
16%
1% |
10/5-6
47%
30%
17%
3% |
10/6-7
49%
31%
15%
2% |
10/7-8
47%
32%
16%
2% |
10/8-9
43%
36%
15%
2% |
10/9-10
46%
35%
12%
2% |
10/10-11
49%
31%
12%
3% |
10/11-12
48%
31%
13%
3% |
10/12-13
48%
33%
12%
3% |
Would do a better job handling foreign affairs:
Clinton
Dole
Perot
None* |
10/4-5
50%
39%
3%
2% |
10/5-6
49%
40%
3%
2% |
10/6-7
50%
39%
3%
2% |
10/7-8
49%
39%
5%
1% |
10/8-9
47%
41%
5%
3% |
10/9-10
48%
42%
3%
2% |
10/10-11
49%
41%
4%
1% |
10/11-12
49%
40%
4%
1% |
10/12-13
48%
42%
2%
2% |
Shares your views on the size and role of government:
Clinton
Dole
Perot
None* |
10/4-5
43%
35%
10%
3% |
10/5-6
44%
33%
10%
5% |
10/6-7
44%
32%
10%
5% |
10/7-8
46%
32%
11%
4% |
10/8-9
41%
38%
10%
4% |
10/9-10
41%
38%
8%
5% |
10/10-11
46%
35%
7%
5% |
10/11-12
44%
36%
8%
5% |
10/12-13
43%
36%
9%
5% |
Would provide the best moral leadership for the country:
Clinton
Dole
Perot
None* |
10/4-5
40%
46%
5%
4% |
10/5-6
39%
45%
7%
5% |
10/6-7
38%
43%
8%
6% |
10/7-8
38%
44%
6%
6% |
10/8-9
34%
47%
6%
6% |
10/9-10
36%
46%
5%
6% |
10/10-11
41%
43%
5%
6% |
10/11-12
40%
44%
6%
6% |
10/12-13
38%
45%
5%
7% |
Currently has the best political campaign:
Clinton
Dole
Perot
None* |
10/4-5
70%
16%
2%
3% |
10/5-6
69%
17%
2%
3% |
10/6-7
71%
16%
1%
5% |
10/7-8
73%
14%
2%
5% |
10/8-9
69%
18%
2%
4% |
10/9-10
69%
17%
2%
4% |
10/10-11
72%
13%
1%
5% |
10/11-12
69%
15%
1%
7% |
10/12-13
70%
16%
1%
6% |
|
Would do the best job of handling taxes:
Clinton
Dole
Perot
None* |
10/4-5
40%
34%
15%
4% |
10/5-6
41%
34%
14%
4% |
10/6-7
43%
33%
13%
4% |
10/7-8
43%
32%
13%
4% |
10/8-9
38%
36%
15%
4% |
10/9-10
41%
36%
12%
4% |
10/10-11
43%
33%
10%
6% |
10/11-12
41%
35%
10%
5% |
10/12-13
42%
36%
10%
4% |
|
Can be trusted to keep his promises:
Clinton
Dole
Perot
None* |
10/4-5
35%
34%
9%
15% |
10/5-6
36%
34%
8%
15% |
10/6-7
37%
34%
7%
15% |
10/7-8
35%
36%
8%
14% |
10/8-9
31%
39%
8%
14% |
10/9-10
33%
39%
7%
14% |
10/10-11
38%
35%
7%
15% |
10/11-12
37%
36%
6%
14% |
10/12-13
33%
38%
7%
15% |
|
Would do the best job handling Medicare:
Clinton
Dole
Perot
None* |
10/4-5
51%
30%
6%
3% |
10/5-6
51%
30%
7%
2% |
10/6-7
52%
29%
6%
4% |
10/7-8
53%
28%
6%
5% |
10/8-9
49%
33%
6%
3% |
10/9-10
51%
33%
5%
3% |
10/10-11
52%
31%
5%
4% |
10/11-12
51%
32%
5%
3% |
10/12-13
52%
32%
5%
2% |
|
* = Volunteered response. Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points
Cares about the needs of people like you:
Clinton
Dole
Perot
None* |
10/7-8
50%
30%
7%
9% |
10/8-9
47%
34%
7%
8% |
10/9-10
48%
34%
6%
7% |
10/10-11
50%
30%
6%
9% |
10/11-12
49%
31%
6%
9% |
10/12-13
49%
33%
6%
8% |
|
* = Volunteered response. Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points
Do you feel Bob Dole is too old to be president, or not?
Yes
No |
10/4-5
32%
66% |
10/11-12
31%
66% |
10/12-13
33%
64% |
|
Do you think Bill Clinton is honest and trustworthy? (HALF THE SAMPLE WAS ASKED THIS QUESTION. THE OTHER HALF OF THE SAMPLE WAS ASKED:) Do you think Bill Clinton is honest and trustworthy enough to be president?
Honest and trustworthy
Yes
No |
10/11-12
48%
46% |
10/12-13
47%
48% |
|
Honest and trustworthy enough to be president
Yes
No |
10/11-12
55%
40% |
10/12-13
55%
40% |
|
Sampling error: +/-6 percentage points
In August of this year, Bob Dole announced a new economic plan which included a 15 percent cut in the federal income tax for most Americans. Have you heard or read about this tax cut?
Yes
No |
10/11-12
81%
18% |
10/12-13
84%
16% |
|
Would you favor or oppose Dole's proposal for a 15 percent cut in the federal income
tax for most Americans?
Favor
Oppose |
10/11-12
54%
36% |
10/12-13
54%
38% |
|
Dole says he can balance the federal budget and cut taxes by 15 percent at the same time. Do you think if Dole were elected President that he could accomplish this, or not?
Yes, could
No, could not |
10/11-12
26%
67% |
10/12-13
26%
66% |
|
Which one of the following characteristics is the most important one to you in rating how a president is handling his job -- his moral values, his positions on issues, or his ability to manage the government?
Moral values
Issue positions
Manage government |
10/11-12
23%
21%
42% |
10/12-13
21%
22%
43% |
|
Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points
Other Results:
(Editor's Note: These are results of questions asked as part of some of the daily surveys.)
Oct. 7-8
Do you support the "Clinton/Gore," "Dole/Kemp" or "Perot/Choate" ticket strongly, or only moderately?
| Likely Voters |
|
|
Clinton Voters
Support a candidate strongly
Support a candidate moderately |
10/2-3
51%
47% |
10/7-8
57%
42% |
|
|
|
Dole Voters
Support a candidate strongly
Support a candidate moderately |
10/2-3
58%
41% |
10/7-8
59%
40% |
NOTE: Too few Perot/Choate voters for statistically valid results. Sampling error: +/-5 percentage points
As you may know, last month Bob Dole released a new economic plan which features several tax cuts. From what you have heard or read so far, do you favor or oppose Dole's plan?
Likely Voters
Favor
Oppose |
9/23-25
39%
40% |
10/7-8
35%
41% |
| Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points |
In general, do you think Bill Clinton's political views are too liberal, or not?
Likely Voters
Yes
No |
10/4-5
41%
52% |
10/7-8
38%
55% |
|
Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points
In general, do you think Bob Dole's political views are too conservative, or not?
Likely Voters
Yes
No |
10/4-5
41%
48% |
10/7-8
41%
48% |
|
Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points
Does Bob Dole's choice of Jack Kemp as his vice-presidential running mate make you more likely or less likely to vote for Dole as President?
More likely to vote for Dole
Less likely to vote for Dole
No difference* |
10/5-6
46%
28%
21% |
10/6-7
45%
29%
21% |
10/7-8
43%
30%
22% |
|
* = Volunteered response. Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points
Does Bill Clinton's choice of Al Gore as his vice-presidential running mate make you more likely or less likely to vote for Clinton as President?
More likely to vote for Clinton
Less likely to vote for Clinton
No difference* |
10/5-6
54%
22%
21% |
10/6-7
53%
22%
22% |
10/7-8
51%
23%
23% |
|
* = Volunteered response. Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points
Just your impression -- who do you think would make the better president -- Al Gore or Jack Kemp?
Gore
Kemp
No difference* |
10/5-6
51%
38%
2% |
10/6-7
50%
38%
2% |
10/7-8
49%
39%
3% |
|
* = Volunteered response. Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points
Oct. 5-6
Based on what you know about Vice President Al Gore, do you think he is
qualified to serve as president if it becomes necessary, or not?
Qualified
Not qualified |
10/5-6
76%
19% |
|
Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points
Based on what you know about Republican vice-presidential candidate Jack
Kemp, do you think he is qualified to serve as president if it becomes necessary, or not?
Qualified
Not qualified |
10/5-6
61%
24% |
|
Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points
Which one of the following four men do you feel did the best job of serving as vice-president when he held the job -- Al Gore, Dan Quayle, George Bush, or Walter Mondale?
Bush
Gore
Quayle
Mondale
No difference* |
10/5-6
55%
26%
7%
6%
1% |
|
* = Volunteered response. Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points
Oct. 2-3
Do you support the "Clinton/Gore," "Dole/Kemp" or "Perot/Choate" ticket strongly, or only moderately?
| Likely Voters |
|
|
All Voters
Support a candidate strongly
Support a candidate moderately
Undecided |
10/2-3
50%
46%
4% |
|
|
|
Clinton Voters
Support a candidate strongly
Support a candidate moderately |
10/2-3
51%
47% |
|
|
|
Dole Voters
Support a candidate strongly
Support a candidate moderately |
10/2-3
58%
41% |
NOTE: Too few Perot/Choate voters for statistically valid results. Sampling error: +/-5 percentage points
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president? (Reported for all Americans, not just those likely to vote.)
Approve
Disapprove |
9/7-9
60%
31% |
10/1-2
58%
34% |
10/2-3
57%
36% |
Now thinking about some issues, do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling the economy? (Reported for all Americans, not just those likely to vote.)
Approve
Disapprove |
10/1-2
58%
35% |
10/2-3
57%
36% |
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling foreign affairs? (Reported for all Americans, not just those likely to vote.)
Approve
Disapprove |
10/1-2
54%
36% |
10/2-3
53%
38% |
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling the situation in the Middle East? (Reported for all Americans, not just those likely to vote.)
Approve
Disapprove |
10/1-2
52%
34% |
10/2-3
51%
35% |
Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points |
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