Polls

Election Benchmark



N=1000 National Adults January 12-15, 1996 RESULTS ARE BASED ON TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS WITH -- 1039 -- NATIONAL ADULTS, AGED 18+, CONDUCTED JANUARY 12-15, 1996. FOR RESULTS BASED ON SAMPLES OF THIS SIZE, ONE CAN SAY WITH 95% CONFIDENCE THAT THE MARGIN OF SAMPLING ERROR IS 3 PERCENTAGE POINTS. Subgroups: Sample Size Margin of Error FORM A/B 516 5 FORM C/D 523 5 Registered Voters 891 4 Registered Republicans/ Republican Leaners 421 5 Back to top
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president? Ap- Disap- No prove prove opinion % % % 1996: 96 Jan 12-15 46 47 7 96 Jan 5-7 42 49 9 1995: 95 Dec 15-18 51 44 5 95 Nov 17-18 53 38 9 95 Nov 6-8 52 41 7 95 Oct 19-22 49 40 11 95 Oct 5-7 46 42 12 95 Sep 22-24 48 44 8 95 Sep 14-17 44 44 12 95 Aug 28-30 46 43 11 95 Aug 4-7 46 42 12 95 Jul 20-23 46 44 10 95 Jul 7-9 48 42 10 95 Jun 5-6 47 42 11 95 May 11-14 51 42 7 95 Apr 21-24 51 39 10 95 Apr 17-19 46 45 9 95 Apr 5-6 47 45 8 95 Mar 27-29 44 47 9 95 Mar 17-19 46 45 9 95 Feb 24-26 42 48 10 95 Feb 3-5 49 44 7 95 Jan 16-18 47 45 8 Ap- Disap- No prove prove opinion % % % 1994: 94 Dec 28-30 40 52 8 94 Dec 16-18 42 53 5 94 Dec 2-5 42 50 8 94 Nov 28-29 43 49 8 94 Nov 2-6 46 46 8 94 Oct 22-25 48 46 6 94 Oct 18-19 41 52 7 94 Oct 7-9 42 52 6 94 Sep 23-25 44 51 5 94 Sep 16-18 42 50 8 94 Sep 6-7 39 54 7 94 Aug 15-16 39 52 9 94 Aug 8-9 43 48 9 94 Jul 15-17 42 49 9 94 Jul 1-3 43 48 9 94 Jun 25-28 44 47 8 94 Jun 11-12 49 44 7 94 Jun 3-6 46 47 7 94 May 20-22 51 42 7 94 Apr 22-24 48 44 8 94 Apr 16-18 51 41 8 94 Mar 25-27 52 41 7 94 Mar 11-13 50 41 9 94 Mar 7-8 50 42 8 94 Feb 26-28 53 41 6 94 Jan 28-30 58 35 7 94 Jan 15-17 54 38 8 94 Jan 6-8 54 38 8 1993: 93 Dec 17-19 54 40 6 93 Dec 4-6 52 38 10 93 Nov 19-21 48 43 9 93 Nov 15-16 50 43 7 93 Nov 2-4 48 45 7 93 Oct 28-30 48 45 7 93 Oct 13-18 47 44 9 93 Oct 8-10 50 42 8 93 Sep 24-26 56 36 8 93 Sep 13-15 46 43 11 93 Sep 10-12 47 42 11 93 Aug 23-25 44 47 9 93 Aug 8-10 44 48 8 93 Jul 19-21 41 49 10 93 Jul 9-11 45 48 7 93 Jun 29-30 46 47 7 93 Jun 18-21 39 50 11 93 Jun 5-6 37 49 14 93 May 21-23 44 46 10 93 May 10-12 45 44 11 93 Apr 22-24 55 37 8 93 Mar 29-31 52 37 11 93 Mar 12-14 53 34 13 93 Feb 26-28 59 29 12 93 Feb 12-14 51 34 15 93 Feb 29-31 54 30 16 93 Jan 24-26 58 20 22 1A. How strongly would you say you [approve/disapprove] -- would you say very strongly, or not so strongly? Not so Very Very Not so strongly strongly strongly strongly dis- dis- No approve approve approve approve opin % % % % % 96 Jan 12-15 26 20 17 30 7 95 Jan 16-18 21 26 17 28 8 94 Jul 15-17 19 23 15 34 9 94 Jun 3-6 26 20 15 32 7 Previous Presidents: 92 Jan 3-6 (Bush) 21 25 32 15 7 83 Sep 16-19 (Reagan) 22 26 14 28 10 80 Jan 25-28 (Carter) 76 Jan 23-26 (Ford) 71 Jul 15-18 (Nixon) Back to top
What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? SELECTED TREND: Jan Jan Jan Jan 12-15 16-18 28-30 8-11 1996 1995 1994 1993 % % % % Economic problems (NET) 54 44 42 69 Unemployment/jobs 11 15 17 22 Federal budget deficit 26 14 8 13 Economy in general 14 10 17 35 Taxes 6 5 2 3 High cost of living/inflation 1 2 1 1 Trade relations/deficit 1 1 2 3 Recession * 0 * 1 The budget 2 -- -- -- The government shutdown 2 -- -- -- Other specific economic -- 3 1 4 Non-economic problems (NET) 79 76 85 63 Crime/violence 18 27 49 9 Health care 10 12 31 18 Welfare 9 12 6 -- Poverty/homelessness 10 10 9 15 Drugs 9 6 8 6 Ethics/moral/family decline 10 6 5 7 Dissatisfaction with gov't/Clinton Republicans 17 5 3 5 Education 9 5 6 8 Youth * 3 -- -- Intern'l issues/foreign affairs 6 2 3 5 Foreign aid/focus overseas 5 2 1 3 Medicare/Soc. Sec. 8 2 1 2 Racism/race relations 4 2 1 3 Immigration/illegal aliens 1 1 1 -- AIDS 1 1 1 2 Environment 2 1 2 3 Abortion * 1 -- -- National defense 1 1 -- -- Guns/gun control * * 3 -- Bosnia 3 -- -- -- Other non-economic 15 10 11 17 No opinion 3 2 * 2 ---- ---- ---- ---- 204% 161% 189% 189% Back to top
* Total figures add to more than 100% because of multiple responses (but do not include "Nets"). The percentage shown for each specific problem includes all mentions (respondents are allowed to name up to three problems). Net scores represent the percentage of respondents naming at least one "Economic" problem, or one "Non-Economic" problem. LONG TERM TREND The Unemploy- Health The economy ment/jobs Crime care deficit % % % % % 96 Jan 12-15 14 11 18 10 26 95 Jul 7-9 9 12 25 7 11 95 Jan 16-18 10 15 27 12 14 94 Aug 15-16 17 6 52 29 3 94 Jul 15-17 13 13 30 21 5 94 Jan 28-30 17 17 49 31 8 94 Jan 15-17 14 18 37 20 5 93 Sep 10-12 26 20 16 28 15 93 Jan 8-11 35 22 9 18 13 92 Aug 28-Sep 2 37 27 7 12 9 92 May 7-10 29 21 8 7 5 92 Mar 26-29 42 25 5 12 8 91 Nov 21-24 32 23 6 6 4 91 Jul 11-14 16 8 4 3 8 90 Jul 19-22 7 3 1 -- 21 89 Nov 9-12 7 3 3 -- 7 89 Sep 7-10 4 2 3 -- 5 89 Jul 18-21 7 2 3 -- 6 89 May 4-7 8 6 6 -- 7 87 Apr 10-13 10 13* 3 1 11 87 Jan 16-19 8 16* 3 1 10 86 Jan 10-13 4 18* 3 -- 11 85 Oct 11-14 4 24* 3 -- 16 85 May 7-10 8 21 4 -- -- 85 Jan 25-28 6 20 4 -- -- 84 Sep 28-Oct 1 4 22* 3 * 8 84 Aug 10-13 8 23 4 -- -- 84 Jun 22-25 * 14 4 -- 7 83 Nov 18-21 3 31 2 -- -- 82 Apr 2-5 11 44* 3 -- -- 82 Jan 8-11 -- 28* 5 -- -- 81 Oct 2-5 -- 17 4 -- -- 81 May 8-11 -- 15 5 -- -- 80 Sep 12-15 * 16 2 -- -- 80 May 28-31 * 4* 2 -- -- 79 Aug 10-13 -- 8* 3 -- -- 79 May 4-7 -- 5* 2 -- -- 79 Feb 23-26 -- 6* 3 -- -- 78 Oct 27-30 * 8* 2 -- -- 78 Sep 8-11 -- 12* 4 -- -- 78 Jul 7-10 -- 14* 3 -- -- 78 Apr 14-17 -- 18* -- -- -- 78 Feb 10-13 -- 17* 4 -- -- 77 Oct 21-24 -- 25* 6 -- -- 77 Jul 22-25 -- 17* 6 -- -- 77 Mar 18-21 -- 39* 15 1 -- * Recession included in percentages with unemployment Back to top
Next, I will read off the names of some people in the news. As I read each name, tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, ... [INSERT ITEM A]. Next, [ROTATE B-D]. Next, [SPLIT SAMPLE: FORMS A-B: ROTATE E-H; FORMS C-D: ROTATE I-K]. Favor- Unfav- NEVER No able orable HEARD OF opin % % % % Back to top
Bill Clinton 96 Jan 12-15 54 44 0 2 95 Nov 6-8 59 38 * 3 95 Sep 22-24 55 41 * 4 95 Aug 4-7 51 44 0 5 95 Jul 7-9 57 40 0 3 95 Apr 17-19 56 42 1 1 95 Mar 17-19 51 45 * 4 95 Jan 16-18 56 42 * 2 94 Dec 28-30 48 49 0 3 94 Nov 28-29 50 47 0 3 94 Sep 6-7 47 50 0 3 94 Jul 15-17 49 48 * 3 94 Apr 22-24 56 41 0 3 94 Mar 25-27 56 40 0 4 94 Mar 7-8 59 38 * 3 94 Jan 15-17 60 37 0 3 94 Jan 6-8 62 35 -- 3 93 Nov 19-21 55 41 -- 4 93 Nov 15-16 56 38 -- 6 93 Nov 2-4 54 42 -- 4 93 Sep 24-26 63 32 -- 5 93 Aug 8-10 53 42 -- 5 93 Jul 19-21 51 45 -- 4 93 Jun 5-6 48 44 -- 8 93 Apr 22-24 63 32 -- 5 93 Jan 29-31 65 27 -- 8 93 Jan 18-19 66 26 -- 8 92 Nov 10-11 58 35 -- 7 Back to top
Hillary Rodham Clinton 96 Jan 12-15 43 51 1 5 95 Jul 7-9 50 44 1 5 95 Mar 17-19 49 44 1 6 95 Jan 16-18 50 44 1 5 94 Nov 28-29 50 44 1 5 94 Sep 6-7 48 47 1 4 94 Jul 15-17 48 46 1 5 94 Apr 22-24 56 40 * 4 94 Mar 25-27 52 42 1 5 94 Mar 7-8 55 40 * 5 94 Jan 15-17 57 36 1 6 93 Nov 2-4 58 34 -- 8 93 Sep 24-26 62 27 -- 11 93 Aug 8-10 57 33 -- 10 93 Jul 19-21 56 34 -- 10 93 Jun 5-6 50 31 -- 19 93 Apr 22-24 61 27 -- 12 93 Mar 22-24 61 31 -- 8 93 Jan 29-31 67 22 -- 11 92 Nov 10-11 49 30 -- 21 92 Aug 31-Sep 2 56 25 -- 19 Back to top
Bob Dole 96 Jan 12-1 44 40 3 13 95 Nov 6-8 42 44 4 10 95 Sep 22-24 42 43 4 11 95 Aug 4-7 47 34 4 15 95 Jul 7-9 59 29 4 8 95 Apr 17-19 57 32 2 9 95 Mar 17-19 53 29 5 13 95 Jan 16-18 54 31 4 11 94 Dec 28-30 54 30 4 12 94 Nov 28-29 58 26 6 10 94 Jul 15-17 51 30 7 12 94 Jan 15-17 52 29 4 15 93 Aug 8-10 42 37 -- 21 93 Mar 22-24 54 26 -- 20 Back to top
Ross Perot 96 Jan 12-15 37 50 1 12 95 Aug 4-7 40 46 2 12 95 Apr 17-19 41 52 1 6 94 Sep 6-7 40 50 1 9 94 Jul 15-17 39 50 1 10 94 Apr 22-24 37 54 * 9 94 Jan 15-17 36 56 1 7 93 Nov 2-4 44 44 -- 12 93 Aug 8-10 52 38 -- 10 93 Mar 22-24 66 28 -- 6 L.V.: 92 Nov 1-2 46 46 -- 8 R.V. trend:92 Oct 22-23 56 32 -- 12 92 Sep 28-30 20 66 -- 14 92 Jul 17-18 38 47 -- 15 92 Jul 16 44 35 -- 21 92 Jul 6-8 44 37 -- 19 92 Jun 26-30 48 34 -- 18 92 Jun 12-14 52 30 -- 18 92 May 18-20 50 25 -- 25 92 May 7-10 48 16 -- 36 92 Apr 20-22 41 23 -- 36 92 Mar 31-Apr 1 32 10 -- 58 Back to top
Al Gore (FORM A/B) 96 Jan 12-15 52 34 2 12 94 Sep 6-7 56 31 2 11 94 Apr 22-24 60 28 2 10 94 Mar 25-27 56 29 2 13 94 Jan 15-17 62 26 3 9 93 Nov 2-4 49 30 -- 21 93 Jul 19-21 55 30 -- 15 93 Apr 22-24 55 24 -- 21 93 Jan 18-19 63 22 -- 15 92 Nov 10-11 56 28 -- 16 Back to top
Pat Buchanan (FORM A/B) 96 Jan 12-15 25 49 10 16 95 Jul 7-9 30 40 10 20 95 Apr 17-19 27 43 9 21 95 Mar 17-19 29 35 10 26 Back to top
Lamar Alexander (FORM A/B) 96 Jan 12-15 13 16 50 21 Back to top
Richard Lugar (FORM A/B) 96 Jan 12-15 11 12 58 19 Back to top
Newt Gingrich (FORM C/D) 96 Jan 12-15 31 57 4 8 95 Aug 4-7 31 47 6 16 95 Apr 17-19 37 51 4 8 95 Mar 17-19 33 47 6 14 95 Jan 16-18 34 37 9 20 94 Dec 28-30 27 35 14 24 94 Nov 28-29 29 25 22 24 94 Oct 7-9 19 22 42 17 Favor- Unfav- NEVER No able orable HEARD OF opin % % % % Back to top
Phil Gramm (FORM C/D) 96 Jan 12-15 24 29 24 23 95 Jul 7-9 29 26 21 24 Back to top
Steve Forbes (FORM C/D) 96 Jan 12-15 26 12 34 28 -----+ | PARTY ID FOR SCREENING 4A. -----+ Back to top
Now here is a list of people who are running for the presidential nomination of the Republican party in 1996. (ROTATE NAMES 6-13) Which of these candidates would you be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president? 5A. Who would be your second choice? REPUBLICAN LIST BASED ON FIRST CHOICE OF -- 405 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; MARGIN OF ERROR = 5 PCT PTS. Alex Buch Dorn- Lug- Spec- Wil- No ander anan Dole an Gramm Keyes ar ter son Forbes opin % % % % % % % % % % % 1996 Jan 12-15 3 5 55 * 6 3 2 na na 12 14 Jan 5-7 1 6 49 1 10 2 6 na na 11 14 1995 Dec 15-18 2 9 52 1 13 3 3 na na 8 9 Nov 6-8 2 7 48 1 7 1 2 3 na 6 23 Sep 22-24 3 8 47 1 11 1 3 1 4 5 16 Aug 28-30 4 7 45 1 11 2 2 2 11 na 15 Aug 4-7 4 10 47 2 10 1 2 2 4 na 18 Jul 7-9 4 7 47 1 8 1 2 2 8 na 20 Jun 5-6 3 7 51 2 14 1 3 3 6 na 10 May 11-14 2 5 54 2 13 1 2 2 6 na 13 Apr 5-6 3 7 45 1 15 1 5 5 5 na 13 Now suppose the 1996 presidential election were being held today. If Bill Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Bob Dole the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Clinton, the Democrat, or Dole, the Republican? 6A. As of today, do you lean more to Clinton, the Democrat, or to Dole, the Republican? BASED ON -- 891 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; 4 PCT PTS DEPENDS/NEITHER/ Clinton Dole No opinion % % % 96 Jan 12-15 48 49 3 96 Jan 5-7 46 49 5 95 Dec 15-18 54 43 4 95 Nov 6-8 53 43 4 95 Sep 22-24 50 45 5 95 Aug 28-30 48 48 4 95 Aug 4-7 46 48 6 95 Jul 20-23 49 45 6 95 Jul 7-9 47 48 5 95 Jun 5-6 46 51 4 95 May 11-14 48 48 4 95 Apr 17-19 48 49 4 95 Feb 3-5 45 51 4 If Bob Dole and Bill Clinton become the Republican and Democratic nominees for president this year, would you be satisfied with that choice or not satisfied? Repub- Demo- Indepen- Total lican crat dent 56 58 68 45 Satisfied 40 38 29 52 Not satisfied 4 4 3 3 No opinion --- --- --- --- 100 100 100 100 IF CLINTON VOTER IN Q. 6: A If Bob Dole becomes the Republican nominee for president, is there any chance you will vote for Bob Dole in the November election or is there no chance whatsoever that you will vote for him? IF DOLE VOTER IN Q. 6: 8.B Is there any chance you will vote for Bill Clinton in the November election or is there no chance whatsoever that you will vote for him? BASED ON -- 891 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; 4 PCT PTS 96 Jan 12-15 96 Jan 5-7 38 33 Core Clinton Voters: No chance will vote for Dole 40 36 Core Dole Voters: No chance will vote for Clinton 22 31 Swing Voters --- --- 100 100 Back to top
Now suppose that the 1996 presidential election included Bill Clinton as the Democratic candidate, Bob Dole as the Republican candidate, and Ross Perot as an independent candidate. Would you vote for Bill Clinton, the Democrat, Bob Dole the Republican, or Ross Perot, the independent? 9A. As of today do you lean toward Clinton the Democrat, Dole the Republican, or Perot, the independent? RESULTS BASED ON FORM A/B -- 434 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; 5 PCT. PTS. 96 Jan 12-15 95 Aug 4-7 95 Apr 17-19 % % % 43 39 40 Clinton 39 35 37 Dole 16 23 18 Perot 2 3 5 Undecided/Other --- --- --- 100 100 100 Now suppose that the 1996 presidential election included Bill Clinton as the Democratic candidate, Bob Dole as the Republican candidate, and an independent candidate nominated by the new party formed by Ross Perot. Would you vote for Bill Clinton, the Democrat, Bob Dole the Republican, or the nominee of that new party. 10A. As of today do you lean toward Clinton the Democrat, Dole the Republican, or the nominee of the new party formed by Ross Perot? BASED ON FORM C/D -- 457 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; 5 PCT. PTS. 38 Clinton 37 Dole 20 Nominee of new party 5 Undecided/Other --- 100 Back to top
If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district -- the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate? 11A. As of today, would you lean more to the Democratic Party's candidate or to the Republican Party's candidate? BASED ON -- 891-- REGISTERED VOTERS; 4 PCT PTS Democratic Republican Undecided/ candidate candidate other % % % 96 Jan 12-15 46 47 7 96 Jan 5-7 44 48 8 95 Dec 15-18 49 43 8 95 Nov 6-8 47 46 7 95 Aug 28-30 43 47 10 95 Jul 7-9 46 47 7 94 Nov 2-6 46 46 8 Previous On-Year Elections 92 Sep 28-30 52 39 8 92 Apr 20-22 47 44 9 88 May 13-15 52 37 11 84 Apr 6-9 55 45 -- 80 Aug 15-18 57 34 9 80 Feb/Mar 53 37 10 76 Oct 28-30 (LV) 53 39 8 Back to top
Please tell me whether you think each of the following political officeholders deserves to be re-elected, or not -- First, ... Next, ... [RANDOM ORDER] No, Yes, does not deserves deserve No re-elect Re-elect opinion % % % a. President Clinton 96 Jan 12-15 45 52 3 94 Oct 18-19 38 58 4 94 Oct 7-9 38 57 5 94 Sep 23-25 38 57 5 94 Apr 22-24 40 49 11 94 Mar 25-27 46 48 6 94 Jan 28-30 45 38 7 94 Jan 15-17 40 45 15 b. The U.S. representative in your Congressional District 96 Jan 12-15 62 21 17 94 Nov 2-6 53 29 18 94 Oct 22-25 54 30 16 94 Oct 18-19 57 29 14 94 Oct 7-9 54 29 17 94 Jul 15-17 60 27 13 94 Mar 25-27 60 23 17 94 Feb 26-28 59 28 13 93 Dec 17-19 59 26 15 93 Nov 2-4 62 19 19 93 Jul 19-21 58 25 17 92 Oct 23-25 48 30 22 92 Sep 11-15 54 25 21 92 Jul 31-Aug 2 61 25 14 92 Apr 20-22 50 31 19 92 Apr 9-12 58 29 13 92 Mar 20-22 56 30 14 92 Jan 31-Feb 2 64 24 12 92 Jan 3-9 61 25 14 91 Nov 58 25 17 No, Yes, does not deserves deserve No re-elect Re-elect opinion % % % c. Most members of the U.S. House of Representatives 96 Jan 12-15 47 38 15 94 Nov 2-6 39 45 16 94 Oct 22-25 43 44 13 94 Oct 18-19 44 42 14 94 Oct 7-9 37 48 15 94 Jul 15-17 41 43 16 94 Mar 25-27 46 38 16 94 Feb 26-28 42 44 14 93 Dec 17-19 38 47 15 93 Jul 19-21 39 46 15 92 Oct 23-25 29 50 21 92 Sep 11-15 32 46 22 92 Jul 31 Aug 2 40 46 14 92 Apr 20-22 33 50 17 92 Apr 9-12 32 53 15 92 Mar 20-22 31 58 11 92 Jan 31-Feb 2 43 43 14 92 Jan 3-9 43 42 15 91 Nov 38 48 14 Back to top
Now thinking about some issues, do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling [RANDOM ORDER]? Next, do you approve or disapprove of the way he is handling [INSERT NEXT ITEM]. RESULTS BASED ON FORM A/B -- 516 -- NATIONAL ADULTS; 5 PCT PTS Dis- No Approve approve opinion % % % Back to top
The economy 96 Jan 12-15 44 51 5 95 Dec 15-18 47 45 8 95 Oct 19-22 44 49 7 95 Jul 20-23 47 46 7 95 Jul 7-9 41 52 7 95 Jun 5-6 42 49 9 95 Feb 3-5 46 49 5 95 Jan 16-18 47 48 5 94 Dec 2-5 43 50 7 94 Nov 2-6 43 51 6 94 Oct 22-25 42 53 5 94 Oct 18-19 38 57 5 94 Sep 23-25 40 55 5 94 Sep 6-7 43 52 5 94 Aug 15-16 42 49 9 94 Jul 15-16 36 57 7 94 Jun 25-28 43 48 9 94 Jun 11-12 49 45 6 94 Jun 3-6 47 46 7 94 May 20-22 50 45 5 94 Apr 22-24 45 48 7 94 Mar 7-8 51 42 7 94 Feb 26-28 48 48 4 94 Jan 28-30 53 40 7 94 Jan 15-17 46 47 7 94 Jan 6-8 49 45 6 93 Dec 4-6 47 46 7 93 Nov 19-21 43 50 7 93 Nov 2-4 37 57 6 93 Oct 8-10 43 48 9 93 Oct 13-18 41 51 8 93 Sep 24-26 47 45 8 93 Sep 10-12 39 50 11 93 Aug 23-25 38 53 9 93 Aug 8-10 38 57 5 93 Jul 9-11 34 60 6 93 Jun 29-30 35 59 6 93 Jun 18-21 36 56 8 93 Jun 5-6 34 56 10 93 May 21-23 35 59 6 93 Apr 22-24 43 50 7 93 Mar 29-31 49 42 9 93 Feb 12-14 45 35 20 Back to top
Foreign affairs 96 Jan 12-15 48 47 5 95 Dec 15-18 46 48 6 95 Oct 19-22 43 44 13 95 Jul 20-23 37 54 9 95 Jul 7-9 44 44 12 95 Jun 5-6 40 51 9 95 Feb 3-5 44 45 11 95 Jan 16-18 44 49 7 94 Dec 2-5 44 46 10 94 Nov 2-6 49 44 7 94 Oct 22-25 46 48 6 94 Oct 18-19 44 50 6 94 Sep 23-25 40 55 5 94 Sep 6-7 34 57 9 94 Aug 15-16 34 52 14 94 Jul 15-17 33 60 7 94 June 25-28 34 52 14 94 Jun 11-12 44 45 11 94 Jun 3-6 39 50 11 94 May 20-22 37 52 11 94 Apr 22-24 39 51 10 94 Mar 7-8 51 38 11 94 Feb 26-28 51 40 9 94 Jan 28-30 52 37 11 94 Jan 15-17 54 36 10 94 Jan 6-8 45 43 12 93 Dec 4-6 45 44 11 93 Nov 19-21 41 49 10 93 Nov 2-4 34 57 9 93 Oct 13-18 36 54 10 93 Oct 8-10 40 52 8 93 Sep 24-26 55 32 13 93 Sep 10-12 46 36 18 93 Aug 23-25 48 39 13 93 Aug 8-10 46 44 10 93 Jul 9-11 49 38 13 93 Jun 29-30 56 33 11 93 Jun 18-21 48 36 16 93 May 21-23 44 43 12 93 Apr 22-24 53 34 13 93 Mar 29-31 55 30 15 93 Feb 12-14 53 22 25 Back to top
Taxes 96 Jan 12-15 41 51 8 95 Jun 5-6 36 56 8 94 Dec 2-5 31 60 9 94 Jul 15-17 31 61 8 94 Apr 22-24 33 60 7 94 Jan 28-30 42 50 8 94 Jan 15-17 37 54 9 93 Nov 2-4 29 64 7 93 Aug 8-10 35 61 4 93 Apr 22-24 34 59 7 Back to top
Education 96 Jan 12-15 54 36 10 94 Jan 15-17 49 37 14 93 Nov 2-4 52 36 12 93 Aug 8-10 47 37 16 93 Apr 22-24 56 26 18 Back to top
Health care 96 Jan 12-15 44 50 6 94 Dec 2-5 37 58 5 94 Sep 6-7 36 60 4 94 Aug 15-16 35 57 8 94 Jul 15-17 34 59 7 94 June 25-28 38 53 9 94 May 20-22 41 52 7 94 Apr 22-24 41 52 7 94 Mar 7-8 40 50 10 94 Feb 26-28 39 53 8 94 Jan 28-30 51 40 9 94 Jan 15-17 46 44 10 93 Nov 2-4 53 40 7 93 Nov 28-30 51 43 6 93 Sep 24-26 55 33 12 93 Sep 10-12 43 38 19 93 Aug 8-10 44 45 11 93 Apr 22-24 51 35 14 Trend: "Health care policy" Back to top
Crime 96 Jan 12-15 44 46 10 95 Jul 7-9 (#) 40 53 7 94 Feb 26-28 (#) 37 41 22 93 Dec 17-19 (#) 39 37 24 #Wording: "The crime problem" Back to top
The federal budget deficit 96 Jan 12-15 35 60 5 95 Dec 15-18 40 53 7 95 Jul 7-9 33 58 9 95 Jun 5-6 29 62 9 94 Dec 2-5 33 56 11 94 Jul 15-17 28 61 11 94 Apr 22-24 33 57 10 94 Feb 26-28 35 57 8 94 Jan 28-30 40 47 13 94 Jan 15-17 37 53 10 93 Nov 2-4 33 59 8 93 Aug 8-10 39 54 7 93 Apr 22-24 40 51 9 Back to top
Welfare policy 96 Jan 12-15 40 55 5 95 Jun 5-6 38 52 10 94 Dec 2-5 32 55 13 94 Apr 22-24 36 51 13 93 Dec 17-19 (#) 36 47 17 # Wording: "Welfare Reform" Back to top
Medicare 96 Jan 12-15 47 47 6 Back to top
Now thinking about some issues, do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Dole is handling [RANDOM ORDER]? Next, do you approve or disapprove of the way he is handling [INSERT NEXT ITEM]. RESULTS BASED ON FORM A/B -- 516 -- NATIONAL ADULTS; 5 PCT PTS Dis- No Approve approve opinion The economy 38 44 18 Foreign affairs 40 31 29 Taxes 36 47 17 Education 35 38 27 Health care 35 48 17 Crime 35 39 26 Federal budget deficit 36 49 15 Welfare 37 46 17 Medicare 33 51 16 I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. As I read each one, please tell me whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to Bill Clinton. First, ... Next, ... [RANDOM ORDER] RESULTS BASED ON FORM C/D -- 523 -- NATIONAL ADULTS; 5 PCT PTS (* = Asked of half sample) Doesn't No Applies apply Opin % % % a. Can get things done 96 Jan 12-15* 41 56 3 95 Feb 3-5 45 51 4 94 Dec 2-5 45 53 2 94 Oct 17-19 42 56 2 94 Sep 6-7 42 54 4 94 Mar 7-8 57 39 4 94 Jan 28-30 64 31 5 94 Jul 15-17 43 54 3 94 Apr 22-24 54 42 4 94 Jan 15-17* 62 33 5 94 Jan 6-8 63 34 3 93 Nov 19-21 66 30 4 93 Nov 2-4* 49 46 5 93 Oct 8-10 56 38 6 93 Aug 8-10* 46 49 5 93 Jun 29-30 46 49 5 93 Jun 5-6 42 51 7 93 Apr 22-24 55 40 5 b. Honest and trustworthy 96 Jan 12-15* 40 55 5 95 Feb 3-5 46 49 5 94 Dec 2-5 44 52 4 94 Oct 17-19 41 56 3 94 Jul 15-17 39 56 5 94 Apr 22-24 47 48 5 94 Mar 7-8 48 46 6 94 Jan 28-30 52 43 5 94 Jan 15-17* 53 41 6 94 Jan 6-8 49 46 5 93 Nov 19-21 54 41 5 93 Nov 2-4* 56 39 5 93 Oct 8-10 59 35 6 93 Aug 8-10* 51 43 6 93 Jun 5-6 56 38 6 93 Apr 22-24 61 35 4 c. Shares your values 96 Jan 12-15* 44 53 3 95 Feb 3-5 45 51 4 94 Dec 2-5 41 56 3 94 Jul 15-17 40 56 4 94 Apr 22-24 45 50 5 94 Mar 7-8 49 47 4 94 Jan 28-30 53 42 5 94 Jan 15-17* 44 52 4 93 Nov 2-4* 49 48 3 93 Aug 8-10* 46 51 3 93 Apr 22-24 53 42 5 d. Tough enough for the job 96 Jan 12-15 51 47 2 94 Dec 2-5 50 48 2 94 Oct 17-19 49 50 1 94 Oct 11 50 48 2 94 Sep 19 50 48 2 94 Sep 16-18 49 49 2 94 Sep 6-7 44 55 1 94 Mar 7-8 57 40 3 94 Jul 15-17 46 52 2 94 Apr 22-24 53 44 3 94 Jan 28-30 61 36 3 94 Jan 15-17* 63 35 94 Jan 6-8 59 38 3 93 Nov 19-21 56 41 3 93 Nov 2-4* 53 43 4 93 Oct 8-10 54 41 5 93 Aug 8-10* 50 46 4 93 Jun 29-30 54 42 4 93 Jun 5-6 47 47 6 93 Apr 22-24 61 35 4 e. Cares about the needs of people like you 96 Jan 12-15 56 42 2 94 Dec 2-5 54 44 2 94 Jan 28-30 65 32 3 94 Jul 15-17 51 46 3 94 Apr 22-24 57 39 4 94 Mar 7-8 60 38 2 94 Jan 15-17* 53 43 4 93 Jun 5-6 56 41 3 93 Apr 22-24 64 33 3 f. Keeps his promises 96 Jan 12-15 34 61 5 94 Jul 15-17 30 67 3 94 Apr 22-24 38 56 6 94 Mar 7-8 40 54 6 94 Jan 28-30 45 48 7 94 Jan 15-17* 35 61 4 93 Nov 2-4* 38 57 5 93 Aug 8-10* 33 63 4 93 Apr 22-24 44 51 5 g. Effective manager 96 Jan 12-15 42 55 3 94 Mar 7-8 49 46 5 94 Jan 15-17* 58 37 5 93 Nov 19-21 55 40 5 93 Nov 2-4* 50 45 5 93 Aug 8-10* 45 50 5 h. A man of strong convictions 96 Jan 12-15 50 47 3 94 Jul 15-17 50 46 4 i. Has a clear plan for solving this country's problems 96 Jan 12-15 33 63 4 j. Puts the country's interests ahead of his own political interests 96 Jan 12-15 48 49 3 I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. As I read each one, please tell me whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to Bob Dole First, ... Next, ... [RANDOM ORDER] RESULTS BASED ON FORM C/D -- 523 -- NATIONAL ADULTS; 5 PCT PTS Doesn't No Applies apply Opin % % % a. Can get things done 96 Jan 12-15 60 27 13 95 Mar 27-29 68 22 10 b. Honest and trustworthy 96 Jan 12-15 55 30 15 95 Mar 27-29 62 27 11 c. Shares your values 96 Jan 12-15 43 44 13 95 Mar 27-29 52 35 13 d. Tough enough for the job 96 Jan 12-15 70 20 10 95 Mar 27-29 74 17 9 e. Cares about the needs of people like you 96 Jan 12-15 44 45 11 95 Mar 27-29 53 36 11 f. Keeps his promises 96 Jan 12-15 43 32 25 g. Effective manager 96 Jan 12-15 61 24 15 h. A man of strong convictions 96 Jan 12-15 67 22 11 i. Has a clear plan for solving this country's problems 96 Jan 12-15 37 48 15 j. Puts the country's interests ahead of his own political interests 96 Jan 12-15 40 46 14 Back to top
SUMMARY OF CLINTON/DOLE ISSUE APPROVAL RATINGS Clinton Dole GAP % % +/- Education 54 35 +19 Medicare 47 33 +14 Health care 44 35 +9 Crime 44 35 +9 Foreign affairs 48 40 +8 The economy 44 38 +6 Taxes 41 36 +5 Welfare 40 37 +3 Federal budget deficit 35 36 -1 SUMMARY OF CLINTON/DOLE QUALITIES & CHARACTERISTICS Clinton Dole GAP % % +/- Cares about the needs of people like you 56 44 +12 Puts the country's interests ahead of his own political interests 48 40 +8 Shares your values 44 43 +1 Has a clear plan for solving the country's problems 33 37 -4 Keeps his promises 34 43 -9 Honest and trustworthy 40 55 -15 A man of strong convictions 50 67 -17 Can get things done 41 60 -19 Tough enough for the job 51 70 -19 Effective manager 42 61 -19 Back to top
In general, do you think the political views of [RANDOM ORDER] are too conservative, too liberal, or about right? And what is your opinion of the political views of ... Too conserv- Too About No ative liberal right opin a. Bill Clinton 12 41 43 4 b. Bob Dole 34 11 43 12 c. The Republican leaders in Congress 42 12 38 8 d. The Democratic leaders in Congress 13 41 37 9 Back to top
Thinking again about Hillary Rodham Clinton, Do you think Hillary Clinton's influence has been generally positive or generally negative on the Clinton Administration? MIXED No Positive Negative (vol.) opinion 96 Jan 12-15 40 54 2 4 94 Sep 16-18 52 38 4 6 94 Mar 7-8 65 32 1 2 Back to top
Now, thinking about the budget conflict which has been going on in Washington, who do you think has acted more responsibly in the negotiations over the budget -- President Clinton or the Republican leaders in Congress? 96 Jan 12-15 96 Jan 5-7 95 Dec 15-18 45 38 48 Clinton 38 37 34 Republicans in Congress 12 14 10 NEITHER (vol.) 1 3 2 BOTH (vol.) 4 8 6 No opinion --- --- --- 100 100 100 Next, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way each of the following political leaders has handled the budget negotiations in Washington. First, ... Next, ... [RANDOM ORDER]? Disap- No Approve prove opinion Bill Clinton 96 Jan 12-15 49 49 2 96 Jan 5-7 47 48 5 95 Nov 17-18 49 38 13 95 Nov 14 48 43 9 Bob Dole 96 Jan 12-15 45 45 10 96 Jan 5-7 45 42 13 95 Nov 17-18 27 46 27 95 Nov 14 32 52 16 Newt Gingrich 96 Jan 12-15 29 61 10 96 Jan 5-7 29 58 13 95 Nov 17-18 19 62 19 95 Nov 14 22 64 14 From what you've heard or read about their proposals, which plan to balance the federal budget in seven years do you prefer -- [ROTATE 1-2]? 43 The one proposed by Bill Clinton or, 41 The one proposed by the Republicans in Congress 7 NEITHER/OTHER (vol.) 1 BOTH SAME/EITHER (vol.) 8 No opinion --- 100 Which of these proposals to balance the federal budget in seven years do you prefer -- [ROTATE 1-2]? 26 A plan with larger reductions in the growth of Medicare as well as a larger tax cut or, 65 A plan with smaller reductions in the growth of Medicare as well as a smaller tax cut 4 NEITHER/OTHER (vol.) 5 No opinion --- 100 Which of these proposals to deal with welfare do you prefer - - [ROTATE 1-2]? 64 A plan which makes large cuts in funding for welfare and gives most of the authority for those programs to the individual state governments or, 30 A plan which makes small cuts in funding for welfare and gives most of the authority for those programs to the federal government 3 NEITHER/OTHER (vol.) 3 No opinion --- 100 Back to top
Now we have a few questions about Whitewater and other matters that are being investigated concerning the Clinton's. First, Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton has handled the Whitewater investigation and other matters that are being investigated? Ap- Disap- No prove prove opinion % % % 96 Jan 12-15 36 55 9 94 Mar 25-27 50 40 10 94 Mar 11-13 39 41 20 94 Mar 7-8 43 43 14 94 Jan 15-17 36 42 22 Which of the following statements best describes your view of Bill Clinton's actions in these matters -- Bill Clinton did something illegal, he did something unethical, but nothing illegal, he did not do anything seriously wrong, or are you unsure? 25A. From what you have heard or read, which way do you lean? Do you think Bill Clinton probably did something illegal, probably did something unethical, but nothing illegal, or probably did not do anything seriously wrong? 25/25A COMBINED: Total Total Total Un- Nothing No Illegal ethical wrong opinion % % % % 96 Jan 12-15 21 43 30 6 94 Dec 16-18 21 46 29 4 94 Aug 8-9 19 40 34 7 94 Jul 15-17 22 48 25 5 94 Mar 25-27 17 40 37 6 94 Mar 7-8 18 43 31 8 Which of the following statements best describes your view of Hillary Clinton's actions in these matters -- Hillary Clinton did something illegal, she did something unethical, but nothing illegal, she did not do anything seriously wrong, or are you unsure? 26A. From what you have heard or read, which way do you lean? Do you think Hillary Clinton probably did something illegal, probably did something unethical, but nothing illegal, or probably did not do anything seriously wrong? 26/26A COMBINED: Total Total Total Un- Nothing No Illegal ethical wrong opin 96 Jan 12-15 29 39 25 7 94 Apr 22-24 15 41 40 4 94 Mar 7-8 18 38 34 10 Which of the following statements best describes your view of top Clinton Administration officials regarding Whitewater -- Some Clinton Administration officials did something illegal, no Clinton Administration official did anything illegal, but some officials did do something unethical, no Clinton Administration official did anything seriously wrong, or are you unsure? 27A. From what you have heard or read, which way do you lean? Do you think that some Clinton Administration officials probably did something illegal, some officials probably did something unethical, but nothing illegal, or do you think that probably no official did anything seriously wrong? 27/27a COMBINED: Total Total Total Un- Nothing No Illegal ethical wrong opin 96 Jan 12-15 28 43 20 9 94 Aug 8-9 28 46 18 8 94 Mar 25-27 27 41 22 10 94 Mar 7-8 24 44 19 13 Which of these statements comes closer to your own opinion -- ROTATE: 1) The Whitewater allegations are important indicators of Bill Clinton's character and ability to serve as president, or 2) The Whitewater allegations are not relevant to Bill Clinton's ability to serve as president? 96 Jan 12-15 94 Jul 15-17 94 Mar 7-8 42 40 42 Important indicators 53 55 51 Not relevant 5 5 7 No opinion --- --- --- 100 100 100 In your view, is [ROTATE A-B] telling the truth about Whitewater and the other matters being investigated, or is [he/she] lying? How about [INSERT NEXT ITEM] -- in your view is [he/she] telling the truth about Whitewater and the other matters being investigated, or is [he/she] lying? Telling the No truth Lying opinion Bill Clinton 39 45 16 Hillary Clinton 32 52 16 Back to top
Now some general questions about politics -- Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses. Others think that government should do more to solve our country's problems. Which comes closer to your own view? Gov't Gov't doing too should MIXED/ much do more No opinion % % % 1996 Jan 12-15 58 35 7 1995 Dec 15-19 60 32 8 1994 Nov 55 37 8 1994 Oct 57 37 6 1994 Jan 54 39 7 1993 Dec 55 38 7 1993 Apr 49 45 6 1993 Mar 45 49 6 1992 Oct 48 44 8 1992 Sep 51 43 6 1992 Aug 50 43 7 Some people think the government should promote traditional values in our society. Others think the government should not favor any particular set of values. Which comes closer to your own view? Should promote Not favor traditional any set of No values values opinion % % % 1996 Jan 12-15 59 36 5 1994 Nov 55 37 8 1994 Oct 55 40 5 1994 Jan 54 40 6 1993 Dec 57 37 6 1993 Apr 55 39 6 1993 Mar 53 42 5 Questions 30/31 Combined: Pure Pure Un Liber Popu Liber- Conserv- desig al list tarian ative nated % % % % % 96 Jan 12-15 13 20 20 35 12 94 Nov 2-6 15 20 20 32 13 94 Oct 22-25 16 19 21 33 11 94 Jan 15-17 16 20 22 30 14 93 Dec 17-19 13 23 22 31 11 93 Apr 22-24 17 25 20 27 11 93 Mar 22-24 20 27 19 24 10 Back to top
Finally, I have a few questions about religion. First, What is your religious preference -- Protestant, Roman Catholic, Jewish or an Orthodox religion such as the Greek or Russian Orthodox Church? Un- Protes- Catho- Jew- Ortho- Mor- Other desig- tant lic ish dox mon specific None nated % % % % % % % % 96 Jan 57 24 2 1 1 4 9 2 1995 (*) 58 2 1994 (*) 60 24 2 1 1 4 6 2 1993 (*) 57 26 1 2 1 5 6 2 1992 (*) 56 26 2 1 1 4 7 2 (*) Based on annual aggregate data What specific denomination is that? ASKED OF -- 632 -- PROTESTANTS AND "OTHERS." BASED ON NATIONAL ADULTS. So. Other Meth Pres Pent Church Non Bap Bap od byter Episc Luth ecost of De No tist tist dist ian opal eran al Christ Other nom Op % % % % % % % % % % % 96 Jan 12-15 9 9 8 3 2 6 3 2 8 5 3 1995 (*) 1994 (*) 10 10 10 4 2 7 3 2 8 4 4 1993 (*) 10 10 10 3 2 6 2 1 10 3 4 1992 (*) 9 10 10 5 2 7 1 -- 11 1 5 (*) Based on annual aggregate data How often do you attend church or synagogue -- READ 1-5: At least Almost About once a every once a No week week month Seldom Never opin % % % % % % 96 Jan 12-15 33 12 15 28 11 1 95 Dec 15-18 34 11 16 28 10 1 95 Sep 22-24 31 13 14 31 11 * 95 Aug 28-30 30 13 17 31 8 1 95 May 11-14 30 12 17 31 10 * 94 Dec 16-18 30 12 16 31 11 * 94 Jun 25-28 32 14 17 27 10 * 94 Mar 28-30 35 15 16 25 9 * 92 Sep 11-15 34 10 15 26 14 1 92 Jan 3-6 31 9 15 29 16 1 How important would you say religion is to you personally when you decide who to vote for? Is it -- READ 1-4: 14 Extremely important 22 Very important 23 Moderately important, or 41 Not important? * No opinion --- 100 Back to top
Turning to another subject, As you may know, there are a number of countries in the Pacific Rim, in addition to Japan, which are emerging as important economic powers. Which of the following do you think will be the most important in economic terms to the United States in the years ahead -- READ AND ROTATE 1-5: 96 Jan 12-15 93 Nov 15-16 4 7 The Philippines 5 4 Singapore 57 53 China 9 10 Korea 10 13 Taiwan 15 13 No opinion --- --- 100 100 Next, I'd like you to rate China on a scale. If you have a favorable opinion of China, name a number between plus one and plus five -- the higher the number, the more favorable your opinion. If you have an unfavorable opinion of China, name a number between minus one and minus five --the higher the number the more unfavorable your opinion. Some Some Very Very what/mostly what/mostly Unfav- favor- favor- unfavor- or- No able able able able Op % % % % % 1/96 9 39 30 15 7 11/93 10 43 24 15 8 7/89 5 29 32 22 12 2/89 12 60 10 3 15 5/87 8 57 23 5 7 9/83 6 37 31 21 5 1/80 6 36 30 24 4 2/79 5 25 31 33 6 1/76 3 17 29 45 6 1967 * 5 16 75 4 TOTAL TOTAL Favor- Unfavor- No able able opinion % % % 1/96 48 45 7 11/93 53 39 8 7/89 34 54 12 2/89 72 13 15 5/87 65 28 7 9/83 43 52 5 1/80 42 54 4 2/79 30 64 6 1/76 20 74 6 1967 5 91 4 NOTE: Ratings based on numeric scale (known as The Gallup Scalometer) are combined as follows: +5, +4 = very favorable; +3, +2, +1 = somewhat favorable; -1, -2, -3 = somewhat unfavorable; -4, -5 = very unfavorable. Over the next few years, do you think China will continue to implement free-market economic reforms, or do you think China will revert to a more closed economic system? 1996 1993 1989 % % % 54 53 36 Continue free-market system 30 33 43 Revert to closed system 16 14 21 No opinion --- --- --- 100 100 100

Previous Polls

  • January 5-7, 1996