AllPolitics - A CNN/Time Poll

A CNN / Time Poll - January 17-18, 1996

About the CNN/Time Polls
Sample size and poll information
Presidential Horse Race
GOP Horse Race
Steve Forbes
Flat Tax
State of the Nation
Clinton Approval Rating
Family Finances
State of the Nation

Interviews with 800 adult Americans, including 
672 registered voters and 284 registered 
Republicans, conducted January 17-18, 1996



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Bill Clinton's lead over Bob Dole continues to 
slip in a hypothetical two-way race for the 
White House. If the election were held today, 
45% of the country's registered voters would 
vote for Clinton; 42% would vote for Dole. A 
week ago, Clinton led Dole among registered 
voters by a 47%-41% margin. In December, Clinton 
had a 15-point lead among registered 
voters.


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
Registered Voters'
Presidential Choice


            Now      Jan. 10-11
Clinton     45%      47% <--- REGISTERED VOTERS!
Dole        42       41


Sampling error: +/-4% pts


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Steve Forbes' support among registered Republicans 
has risen from 9% to 15% since last week, allowing 
the billionaire publisher to finish a solid second 
to Bob Dole. But Dole remains far ahead of the 
competition, winning support from 40% of all registered 
voters who call themselves Republicans. Phil Gramm, at 10%, 
and Pat Buchanan, with 6%, round out the GOP's top four. 
(NOTE: This sample of registered Republicans is somewhat 
smaller than normal, resulting in a +/-6% pts sampling error.)


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
Registered Republicans'
Choice for Nomination


            Now      Jan. 10-11
Dole        40%      42% <--- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS!
Forbes      15        9
Gramm       10        8
Buchanan     6        7

Sampling error: +/-6% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
Registered Republicans'
Choice for Nomination

Dole        40%     Alexander 3% <--- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS!
Forbes      15      Lugar 2
Gramm       10      Keyes 2
Buchanan     6

Sampling error: +/-6% pts

NOTE: Because Bob Dornan received less than 1% 
of the vote, he is not included on this 
graphic.



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If Forbes won the Republican nomination, he 
would lose to Bill Clinton by a 46%-39% 
margin if the election were held today. 
This may be due to the fact that most Americans are 
still unfamilar with Forbes. But the general 
public is not attracted to two of Forbes' main 
qualities -- his wealth and his outsider status -- 
in questions which do not mention Forbes 
by name. Only a quarter of the public would be 
more likely to vote for a presidential 
candidate who had never held elective office 
before; 56% would prefer a candidate who had 
served as a public official. Just one in five 
say that it is good for the country that very 
wealthy individuals are able to spend an 
unlimited amount of money to run for public 
office. Two-thirds of all Americans say that 
is bad for the country.


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
Registered Voters'
Presidential Choice

Clinton     46% <--- REGISTERED VOTERS!
Forbes      39

Sampling error: +/-4% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
More Likely to Vote
For Candidate Who...

Held office before   56%
Never held office    24

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
Wealthy Candidates Spending
Unlimited Amount of Money

Good thing    20%
Bad thing     67

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts


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By a small margin, the general public supports 
a flat tax system in which all but low-
income Americans would pay the same percentage 
of their income in taxes, regardless of 
how much money they make. 48% say they favor 
a flat tax system; 42% oppose it. But the 
devil is in the details. Only 31% support 
a flat tax proposal which would eliminate 
the tax deduction for charitable contributions. 
Just 29% support a flat tax proposal which would 
eliminate all tax deductions for home mortgages. 
(By a 47%-42% margin, Americans continue to support 
a flat tax system which only eliminates mortgages on 
homes that cost more than $300,000.) And only a handful 
of Americans supports a flat tax that would increase 
the amount of money they paid in taxes, caused the 
federal budget deficit to rise, or increased the amount 
of money middle-class Americans paid in taxes while lowering the 
tax bite on wealthy Americans. (In fact, by a 41%-48% 
margin, Americans oppose Steve Forbes' proposed 17% flat 
rate -- probably because they are unaware of what the current 
tax rate structure is.)


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
Do You Support Concept
of Flat Tax System?

Yes    48%
No     42

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
Flat Tax System Which Would
Eliminate Charitable Deduction

Favor     31% 
Oppose    64

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
Flat Tax System Which Would
Eliminate Mortgage Deduction

Favor      29%
Oppose     60

Sampling error: +/-3% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
Oppose Flat Tax Which Would...

Increase your taxes   80%
Increase deficit      82
Benefit wealthy       86

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts


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With President Clinton scheduled to give his 
State of the Union speech on Tuesday, how 
does the public view the state of the country 
today? Half the general public says the country 
is in deep and serious trouble. 47% say the 
problems the country faces are no worse than at 
any other time in recent years. Political handicappers 
take note: in January, 1976, Americans thought 
the country was in deep and serious trouble by a 
54%-38% margin, and incumbent Gerald Ford narrowly 
lost the election that year. In January, 1980, three-
quarters believed the country was in deep trouble 
and Jimmy Carter was trounced in his re-election bid. 
But in 1984, with a majority of the public saying in 
January that the country's problems were no worse than 
at other recent times, Ronald Reagan won re-election.


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
State of the Nation

Deep and serious trouble    50%
No worse than recent years  47

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
Country is in Deep
and Serious Trouble

January,1996    50%
January,1984    40
January,1980    74
January,1976    54

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts

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47% of the general public approves of the 
way Clinton is handling his job as President; 
44% disapprove. That figure is virtually 
unchanged from the 48%-45% found in a 
CNN/Time poll taken a week ago, but is a 
significant drop from the 55% approval rating 
Clinton received in December.


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
Clinton Approval Rating

Approve       47%
Disapprove    44

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts



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How do Americans view their family's finances? 
Eleven percent say their family is doing 
very well, and 65% say they are doing fairly well. 
22% say they are doing poorly -- a 10-
point rise from January of last year. 31% say 
they are better off financially than three years 
ago, when Clinton took office; 50% say they are 
the same, and 18% say they are worse 
off. 


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
Family Finances

              Now      Jan.,1995
Very well     11%      19%
Fairly well   65       68
Poorly        22       12

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
January 17-18
Family Finances
Compared to 1993

Better    31%
Worse     18
Same      50

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts

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