Polls

A CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
February 24-27, 1996


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Interviews were conducted on February 24-27 with 1,002 registered Republicans who were originally interviewed in November, 1995. The sample includes 373 registered Republicans who currently support Bob Dole for the GOP nomination, 212 current supporters of Buchanan, 123 supporters of Alexander, and 110 supporters of Forbes. Back to the top
What separates Buchanan's supporters from other registered Republicans? One distinction is the number of Buchanan supporters who think the country is in deep and serious trouble. 71% of Buchanan voters feel that way, compared to only 49% of Dole voters and 45% of Alexander voters. Only 25% of Buchanan voters believe that the country's problems are no worse than at other times. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Buchanan Voters' View of Country's Problems Deep and serious trouble 71% No worse than before 25 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Country is in Deep and Serious Trouble Buchanan voters 71% Forbes voters 50 Dole voters 49 Alexander voters 45 Sampling error: +/-9% pts Back to the top
If the Buchanan campaign seems like a crusade sometimes, it may be because Buchanan voters are more religious and more supportive of the religious right than other registered Republicans. A majority of Buchanan voters say they support the views of the religious right; no more than a third of the other major candidates' supporters feel that way. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Support the Views of Religious Right Buchanan voters 52% Dole voters 34 Alexander voters 25 Forbes voters 23 Sampling error: +/-9% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Support the Views of Religious Right? Buchanan Dole Voters Voters Yes 52% 34% No 10 28 Unfamiliar 36 35 Sampling error: +/-7% pts Back to the top
Buchanan voters are strongly isolationist and protectionist. Six out of ten of them believe the U.S. should radically reduce its role in international affairs; less than half of Dole, Forbes, and Alexander voters feel that way. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 U.S. Should Radically Reduce Role in World Affairs Buchanan voters 60% Forbes 48 Alexander 37 Dole 36 Sampling error: +/-9% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Should U.S. Radically Reduce Role in World Affairs? Buchanan Dole Voters Voters Yes 60% 36% No 35 61 Sampling error: +/-7% pts Back to the top
Which Republican candidates has conservative commentator Pat Buchanan drawn support from in his rapid rise in the polls after his victory in the New Hampshire primary? Only a fifth of current Buchanan supporters said that Buchanan was their first choice in November. Nearly a third of them would have voted for Dole if the election were held four months ago. A quarter of today's Buchanan voters were undecided last November. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Buchanan Voters' Favorite Candidate in November Dole 32% Buchanan 21 Gramm 9 Undecided 26 Sampling error: +/-7% pts Back to the top
And where have defectors from Bob Dole's camp gone? A third of the registered Republicans who planned to vote for Dole in November have now defected to Pat Buchanan. 21% have switched from Dole to Alexander, and 18% have switched to Forbes. One out of five former Dole voters are now unsure who they would support. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 November Dole Voters Now Support... Buchanan 34% Alexander 21 Forbes 18 Undecided 20 Sampling error: +/-7% pts Back to the top
There are deep divisions between Buchanan voters and other registered Republicans on what the GOP should stand for. A majority of Buchanan supporters want to see the Republican platform call for a constitutional amendment to ban abortion; less tan a quarter of the other major candidates' supporters want that. Half of Buchanan voters want the platform to call for a repeal of the ban on the manufacture and sale of assault rifles; pluralities of all the other candidates' supporters oppose repealing the assault weapon ban. A majority of Buchanan voters want the GOP platform to call for repealing NAFTA; most supporters of the other candidates oppose withdrawing from NAFTA. Buchanan voters are also more likely to support platform planks which call for a constitutional amendment to allow prayer in public schools and an incrase in tariffs on foreign imports. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 GOP Platform: Amendment to Ban Abortions Buchanan voters 56% Alexander voters 24 Dole voters 22 Forbes voters 18 Sampling error: +/-9% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Should GOP Platform Call for Amendment to Ban Abortions? Buchanan Dole Voters Voters Yes 56% 22% No 43 74 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 GOP Platform: Repeal Assault Weapon Ban Buchanan voters 51% Forbes voters 45 Dole voters 41 Alexander voters 40 Sampling error: +/-9% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Should GOP Platform Call for Repeal of Assault Weapons Ban? Buchanan Dole Voters Voters Yes 51% 41% No 37 50 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 GOP Platform: Repealing NAFTA Buchanan voters 55% Alexander voters 38 Dole voters 32 Forbes voters 32 Sampling error: +/-9% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Should GOP Platform Call for Repeal of NAFTA? Buchanan Dole Voters Voters Yes 55% 32% No 32 59 Sampling error: +/-7% pts Back to the top
Buchanan voters believe that the contest between their candidate and the other GOP hopefuls is a "fight for the heart and soul of the Republican party." Supporters of Dole, Forbes, and Alexander don't see the primary contest that way. If that makes the Buchanan campaign a crusade, it may be fitting. Buchanan voters are more religious and more supportive of the religious right than other registered Republicans. A majority of Buchanan voters say they support the views of the religious right and say that they attend church every week or nearly every week. Buchanan voters strongly believe that the government should do more to promote traditional values in our society. But Forbes and Alexander voters believe that the government should not favor one set of values over another, and Dole voters are closely divided on this issue. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 GOP Contest is a Fight For Heart and Soul of Party Buchanan voters 58% Dole voters 42 Forbes voters 41 Alexander voters 33 Sampling error: +/-9% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Attend Church Weekly or Nearly Every Week Buchanan voters 59% Dole voters 43 Alexander voters 42 Forbes voters 28 Sampling error: +/-9% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Government Should Promote Traditional Values Buchanan voters 62% Dole voters 49 Alexander voters 47 Forbes voters 35 Sampling error: +/-9% pts Back to the top
Buchanan voters are strongly isolationist and protectionist. Six out of ten of them believe the U.S. should radically reduce its role in international affairs, and half of Buchanan's supporters say that American workers would be better off if the U.S. reduced trade with other countries. Less than a third of the other candidates' supporters feel that way. A bare majority of Buchanan voters oppose the U.S. withdrawing from the U.N.; over three- quarters of all other candidates' voters feel that way. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Reducing U.S. Trade Would Help U.S. Workers Buchanan voters 52% Alexander voters 36 Dole voters 34 Forbes voters 18 Sampling error: +/-9% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Would Reducing U.S. Trade Help U.S. Workers? Buchanan Dole Voters Voters Yes 52% 34% No 41 62 Sampling error: +/-7% pts Back to the top
Only 29% of Buchanan supporters do not own a gun or live in a household with a gun owner; 69% have a gun in the household. Only about half of the other major candidates' supporters can say that. Buchanan voters are also less likely to have incomes over $35,000 than other rehistered Republicans. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Have Gun in Household Buchanan voters 69% Dole voters 52 Forbes voters 45 Alexander voters 40 Sampling error: +/-9% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR February 24-27 Household Income Under Over $35,000 $35,000 ------- ------- Buchanan voters 41% 53% Dole voters 36 55 Alexander voters 26 68 Forbes voters 21 66 Sampling error: +/-9% pts Back to the top

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