A CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30, 1996
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Interviews were conducted on January 27-30 with
1,117 registered Republicans who were also
interviewed in November,1995. The sample included
201 current supporters of Forbes, 508 current Dole
supporters, and 289 voters who supported
Powell in November.
Back to the top
Which Republican candidates has millionaire
publisher Steve Forbes drawn support from
in his steady rise in the polls? Nearly a
third of registered Republicans who currently
support Forbes favored Colin Powell in November.
Another 22% supported Bob Dole
three months ago; only one in eight of Forbes'
current backers would have voted for him
last year. Nonetheless, Powell's decision to
stay out of the race benefitted Bob Dole the
most. 45% of GOP voters who would have voted
for Powell now back the Kansas
Republican. Only one in five are now in Forbes'
camp. All that adds up to a solid second-
place showing for Forbes, who is favored by 17%
of all registered Republicans. Dole, at
47%, still remains the favorite of GOP voters
nationwide. Phil Gramm, with 9%, and Pat
Buchanan, with 6%, round out the top four.
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Forbes Voters' Favorite
Candidate in November
Powell 31%
Dole 22
Forbes 12
Undecided 13
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Powell Voters' Current
Choice for Nomination
Dole 45%
Forbes 20
Gramm 5
Undecided 19
Sampling error: +/-5.5% pts
Back to the top
There are strong ideological differences between
Forbes voters and Dole voters. When
asked to describe themselves as "pro-choice --
supporting a woman's right to have an
abortion," or "pro-life -- protecting the rights
of unborn children," most Forbes voters say
they are pro-choice. Dole voters are evenly split.
Forbes voters also believe that the
government should not promote one set of values
over another. Most Dole voters think the
government should do more to promote traditional
values. Nonetheless, a majority of both
groups describe themselves as politically conservative.
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Position on Abortion
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Pro-choice 48% 57%
Pro-life 47 34
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Should Government Promote
Traditional Values?
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Yes 51% 41%
No 43 54
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Political Ideology
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Conservative 51% 52%
Moderate 38 40
Liberal 6 5
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
Back to the top
Who are the Forbes voters? Compared to
Dole voters, they are somewhat richer and better
educated. Forbes also attracts a slightly higher
share of male GOP voters than Dole does.
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Choice for GOP Nomination
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Under $35,000 40% 23%
Over $35,000 54 67
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Choice for GOP Nomination
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
College graduates 35% 43%
No college degree 64 57
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Choice for GOP Nomination
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Men 54% 58%
Women 42 49
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
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Although Dole's support has been repeatedly
described as soft, Forbes' support may be
even softer. 36% of Forbes voters say they
are weak supporters of the publishing magnate
and could easily support someone else as the
campaign goes on; only one in nine say they
are a strong supporter whose mind is definitely
made up. Dole does slightly better on this
measure among his voters. Dole voters also say
they are satisfied with the field of
Republican candidates. But a majority of Forbes
supporters say they are not satisfied --
indicating that some of them are still shopping
around for another candidate.
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Strength of Support
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Strong 20% 11%
Moderate 48 52
Weak 31 36
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Satisfied With Choice
of GOP Candidates
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Yes 68% 47%
No 30 51
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
Back to the top
Forbes has a lot of room to grow. Four in
ten registered Republicans are not familiar
enough with him to have an opinion of him.
And while twice as many Republican voters
nationwide say that Dole is closer to them
on the issues than say that about Forbes, 36%
don't know enough to be able to choose between
the two candidates. But could Forbes go
all the way? Republican voters don't think so --
only 32% say he could beat Bill Clinton.
60% think Dole could do so.
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Opinion of Forbes
All GOP Voters
Favorable 41%
Unfavorable 16
Unfamiliar 41
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Which Candidate is Closer
To Your Own Views?
All GOP Voters
Dole 40%
Forbes 20
Unsure 36
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Can Dole Beat Clinton?
All GOP Voters
Yes 60%
No 27
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Can Forbes Beat Clinton?
All GOP Voters
Yes 32%
No 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Forbes Voters' Favorite
Candidate in November
Powell 31%
Dole 22
Forbes 12
Undecided 13
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Position on Abortion
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Pro-choice 48% 57%
Pro-life 47 34
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Worried About Maintaining
Standard of Living
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Yes 30% 41%
No 68 58
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Should Government Promote
Traditional Values?
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Yes 51% 41%
No 43 54
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Do You Have a Gun
in Your Household?
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Yes 53% 44%
No 47 55
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
Back to the top
Registered Republicans who currently support
Steve Forbes for the GOP nomination are
generally better educated and have higher
incomes than Dole voters, but the demographic
differences between the two groups are not
just based on simple economics. A majority of
Dole voters (and a majority of Republicans nationwide)
own a gun themselves or have a
gun in their household. A majority of Forbes
voters do not.
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Have Gun in Household
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Yes 53% 44%
No 47 55
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Registered Republicans'
Choice for Nomination
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Under $35,000 40% 23%
Over $35,000 54 67
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Registered Republicans'
Choice for Nomination
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
College graduate 35% 43%
No college degree 64 57
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
Back to the top
Despite the upscale nature of the Forbes voters,
the millionaire publisher appears to also be
attracting suporters who are more worried about
the future and less likely to say that their
financial situation has gotten better in the past
three years. Just 51% of Forbes voters say
their family's financial situation is better than
five years ago; 58% of Dole voters report
improvement. 41% of Forbes voters say that they are
worried that they will not be able to
maintain their standard of living in the next five
years; only 30% of Dole voters are worried
about that.
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Worried About Maintaining
Standard of Living
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Yes 30% 41%
No 68 58
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30
Financial Situation Better
Than Three Years Ago
Dole Forbes
Voters Voters
Yes 58% 51%
No 35 40
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
Back to the top
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Copyright © 1997 AllPolitics All Rights Reserved
Terms under which this information is provided to you |
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