Polls

A CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
January 27-30, 1996


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Interviews were conducted on January 27-30 with 1,117 registered Republicans who were also interviewed in November,1995. The sample included 201 current supporters of Forbes, 508 current Dole supporters, and 289 voters who supported Powell in November. Back to the top
Which Republican candidates has millionaire publisher Steve Forbes drawn support from in his steady rise in the polls? Nearly a third of registered Republicans who currently support Forbes favored Colin Powell in November. Another 22% supported Bob Dole three months ago; only one in eight of Forbes' current backers would have voted for him last year. Nonetheless, Powell's decision to stay out of the race benefitted Bob Dole the most. 45% of GOP voters who would have voted for Powell now back the Kansas Republican. Only one in five are now in Forbes' camp. All that adds up to a solid second- place showing for Forbes, who is favored by 17% of all registered Republicans. Dole, at 47%, still remains the favorite of GOP voters nationwide. Phil Gramm, with 9%, and Pat Buchanan, with 6%, round out the top four. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Forbes Voters' Favorite Candidate in November Powell 31% Dole 22 Forbes 12 Undecided 13 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Powell Voters' Current Choice for Nomination Dole 45% Forbes 20 Gramm 5 Undecided 19 Sampling error: +/-5.5% pts Back to the top
There are strong ideological differences between Forbes voters and Dole voters. When asked to describe themselves as "pro-choice -- supporting a woman's right to have an abortion," or "pro-life -- protecting the rights of unborn children," most Forbes voters say they are pro-choice. Dole voters are evenly split. Forbes voters also believe that the government should not promote one set of values over another. Most Dole voters think the government should do more to promote traditional values. Nonetheless, a majority of both groups describe themselves as politically conservative. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Position on Abortion Dole Forbes Voters Voters Pro-choice 48% 57% Pro-life 47 34 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Should Government Promote Traditional Values? Dole Forbes Voters Voters Yes 51% 41% No 43 54 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Political Ideology Dole Forbes Voters Voters Conservative 51% 52% Moderate 38 40 Liberal 6 5 Sampling error: +/-7% pts Back to the top
Who are the Forbes voters? Compared to Dole voters, they are somewhat richer and better educated. Forbes also attracts a slightly higher share of male GOP voters than Dole does. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Choice for GOP Nomination Dole Forbes Voters Voters Under $35,000 40% 23% Over $35,000 54 67 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Choice for GOP Nomination Dole Forbes Voters Voters College graduates 35% 43% No college degree 64 57 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Choice for GOP Nomination Dole Forbes Voters Voters Men 54% 58% Women 42 49 Sampling error: +/-7% pts Back to the top
Although Dole's support has been repeatedly described as soft, Forbes' support may be even softer. 36% of Forbes voters say they are weak supporters of the publishing magnate and could easily support someone else as the campaign goes on; only one in nine say they are a strong supporter whose mind is definitely made up. Dole does slightly better on this measure among his voters. Dole voters also say they are satisfied with the field of Republican candidates. But a majority of Forbes supporters say they are not satisfied -- indicating that some of them are still shopping around for another candidate. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Strength of Support Dole Forbes Voters Voters Strong 20% 11% Moderate 48 52 Weak 31 36 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Satisfied With Choice of GOP Candidates Dole Forbes Voters Voters Yes 68% 47% No 30 51 Sampling error: +/-7% pts Back to the top
Forbes has a lot of room to grow. Four in ten registered Republicans are not familiar enough with him to have an opinion of him. And while twice as many Republican voters nationwide say that Dole is closer to them on the issues than say that about Forbes, 36% don't know enough to be able to choose between the two candidates. But could Forbes go all the way? Republican voters don't think so -- only 32% say he could beat Bill Clinton. 60% think Dole could do so. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Opinion of Forbes All GOP Voters Favorable 41% Unfavorable 16 Unfamiliar 41 Sampling error: +/-3% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Which Candidate is Closer To Your Own Views? All GOP Voters Dole 40% Forbes 20 Unsure 36 Sampling error: +/-3% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Can Dole Beat Clinton? All GOP Voters Yes 60% No 27 Sampling error: +/-3% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Can Forbes Beat Clinton? All GOP Voters Yes 32% No 46 Sampling error: +/-3% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Forbes Voters' Favorite Candidate in November Powell 31% Dole 22 Forbes 12 Undecided 13 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Position on Abortion Dole Forbes Voters Voters Pro-choice 48% 57% Pro-life 47 34 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Worried About Maintaining Standard of Living Dole Forbes Voters Voters Yes 30% 41% No 68 58 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Should Government Promote Traditional Values? Dole Forbes Voters Voters Yes 51% 41% No 43 54 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Do You Have a Gun in Your Household? Dole Forbes Voters Voters Yes 53% 44% No 47 55 Sampling error: +/-7% pts Back to the top
Registered Republicans who currently support Steve Forbes for the GOP nomination are generally better educated and have higher incomes than Dole voters, but the demographic differences between the two groups are not just based on simple economics. A majority of Dole voters (and a majority of Republicans nationwide) own a gun themselves or have a gun in their household. A majority of Forbes voters do not. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Have Gun in Household Dole Forbes Voters Voters Yes 53% 44% No 47 55 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Registered Republicans' Choice for Nomination Dole Forbes Voters Voters Under $35,000 40% 23% Over $35,000 54 67 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Registered Republicans' Choice for Nomination Dole Forbes Voters Voters College graduate 35% 43% No college degree 64 57 Sampling error: +/-7% pts Back to the top
Despite the upscale nature of the Forbes voters, the millionaire publisher appears to also be attracting suporters who are more worried about the future and less likely to say that their financial situation has gotten better in the past three years. Just 51% of Forbes voters say their family's financial situation is better than five years ago; 58% of Dole voters report improvement. 41% of Forbes voters say that they are worried that they will not be able to maintain their standard of living in the next five years; only 30% of Dole voters are worried about that. CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Worried About Maintaining Standard of Living Dole Forbes Voters Voters Yes 30% 41% No 68 58 Sampling error: +/-7% pts CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR January 27-30 Financial Situation Better Than Three Years Ago Dole Forbes Voters Voters Yes 58% 51% No 35 40 Sampling error: +/-7% pts Back to the top

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