Could New Hampshire Elect A Democratic Senator? Maybe

CONCORD, N.H. (AllPolitics, Nov. 2) -- Only one year ago, few could have correctly guessed the political scenario in usually Republican New Hampshire as it has unfolded this summer and fall. Former two-term Democratic Rep. Dick Swett, ousted in 1994, has people talking about a potential upset in his race against Republican Sen. Robert C. Smith.

New winds seem to be blowing through this longtime bastion of conservatism. With the election approaching, President Bill Clinton had a double-digit lead in the state over the Republican presidential nominee; a Democrat was in good position to succeed Republican Gov. Steve Merrill; and the state's two GOP-held House seats were in danger of switching hands.

Smith's vulnerability was among the most surprising of these developments. Democrats have not had a Senate victory in New Hampshire since 1975, when John A. Durkin won a special election (Durkin was beaten in 1980 by Republican Warren B. Rudman, who then served in the Senate until 1993).

Surveys have indicated that this year's contest is close, with some polls even giving Swett a slight lead. An upset win would be a stunning comeback for Swett, who just two years ago lost his 2nd District House seat to Republican Charles Bass.

Smith and Swett have each launched aggressive media campaigns portraying the other as politically extreme. The race also has focused on questions of trust. Smith says Swett is not telling seniors the truth when he says the incumbent voted to cut Medicare and other programs; Smith argues that the program he supported would only have limited future spending increases.

Smith's campaign also points to Swett's vote in 1994 for a ban on certain assault weapons, which he cast despite a promise to oppose the legislation (an issue that was a key factor in Swett's loss to Bass).

Smith also is casting his opponent as a liberal. One of Smith's early television ads claimed that the Clinton Administration's health care overhaul plan, which Swett co-sponsored during the 103rd Congress, would have allowed "the federal government to take over health care" and "could have prohibited you from choosing your own doctor" -- claims long denied by supporters of the failed legislation.

Swett, however, has been hammering Smith for voting in favor of a Senate pay raise in 1991 after saying he would not. He also accuses Smith of voting to cut funding for environmental protection and claims that Smith's views on issues such as abortion are too far to the right even for New Hampshire. At the same time, Swett says his "centrist positions" are more in line with New Hampshire voters.

Congressional Quarterly contributed to this report.

Could New Hampshire Elect A Democratic Senator? Maybe

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