AllPolitics Top 40 Races: Part III

By Thomas H. Moore/AllPolitics

Who will control the House in the next Congress? So many races are so close so late in the game that it's hard to say. But if you're looking for clues, look no further than the AllPolitics Top 40 -- the nation's closest, hottest House races. AllPolitics and our expert partner, Congressional Quarterly, have gone through every race in the country. While it may be impossible to know the election's outcome, you can find out where its toughest battlegrounds are. Not enough? For the total political junkie, we've also got all this in an extended dance mix version -- the 185 most interesting House races, as well as all Senate races, all available all at once in our States section.

Today's focus: Endangered Republicans in the Midwest.

The GOP did well in the Midwest in the 1994 elections, but now five of its freshmen, and one sophomore, are in danger of tossing their seats back to Democrats.

Two members, Michael Patrick Flanagan in Illinois and Martin R. Hoke in Ohio, are actually trailing their opponents. To get to Washington, each beat longtime Democratic incumbents with ethical troubles. Flanagan knocked off the powerful (and powerfully disgraced) Dan Rostenkowski in 1994, and Hoke beat Mary Rose Oakar in 1992. But it's not clear the two can win this year against less-encumbered opponents.

Adding to this group's woes is President Bill Clinton, who is doing well in all the states these members represent (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio).

In fact, Clinton beat President George Bush in all these districts except Frank A. Cremeans' Ohio 6th, where Clinton trailed Bush by only 1,400 votes.

The labor union ad blitz on behalf of Democratic challengers has also had an impact in this very unionized region of the country.

As we saw yesterday in Thursday's survey of endangered Republican members in the Northeast and South, most of the Midwesterners in peril won with slim majorities last time around. Flanagan beat Rostenkowski with 54 percent of the vote (an amazing Rosty performance considering he was well along on his way to prison), but none of the others topped 53 percent.

Those in danger are:

• Michael Patrick Flanagan of Illinois' 5th district
• John Hostettler of Indiana's 8th district
• Greg Ganske of Iowa's 4th district
• Dick Chrysler of Michigan's 8th district
• Frank A. Cremeans of Ohio's 6th district
• Martin R. Hoke of Ohio's 10th district