The 1996 Elections

Many Close Calls, But Few Surprises

By Stuart Rothenberg

Looking back over the past few days, and comparing them with the past few months, the 1996 elections produced few surprises. Bill Clinton won comfortably, though by a smaller margin than some pundits and national polls predicted. Still, a win is a win, and anyone who predicted a Clinton victory in the 8-12 point range should feel pretty good, even though Dole finished within eight points of the president.

If there were any surprises at all, it was in House, Senate and gubernatorial races.

The biggest surprises in the House took place in Connecticut and Texas. While there was plenty of talk about vulnerable freshman, few handicappers paid a great deal of attention to Gary Franks (R-CT 5). Franks has had his share of troubles over the past few years, and he was saved from defeat in the past by a divided Democratic party. Well, this time the Democrats weren't divided, and national GOP operatives -- and Franks himself -- made the mistake of thinking he was safe. On Tuesday, however, the first black GOP congressman elected in years was overwhelmed by Jim Maloney, a Democratic state legislator who lost to Franks two years earlier. Franks's defeat leaves J.C. Watts (R-OK) as the only black GOP House member.

But if Franks's defeat was something of a surprise, Nancy Johnson's shockingly narrow victory was the stunner of the night. Johnson, who has represented Connecticut's 6th C. D. since she first captured it in 1982 , was nearly upset by Charlotte Koskoff a college professor drew just 31 percent against Johnson two years earlier.

Nobody had this race on their radar screen, and Johnson's near-defeat has to be a wake-up call for Republicans, since the moderate GOP congresswoman was attacked in the race for defending Newt Gingrich against ethics charges.

The Texas surprise came in the 9th C.D., where conservative freshman Steve Stockman (R) finished ahead of challenger Nick Lampson (D). Since no candidate drew 50 percent of the vote, Stockman and Lampson face off in a December 10th runoff that should benefit the Republicans.

On the Senate side, New Hampshire Republican Bob Smith's victory over challenger Dick Swett (D) was something of an upset, since Washington GOP insiders were pessimistic about Smith's prospects. Chuck Hagel's victory in Nebraska came as an upset to some, even though I picked the race as my "upset special" on "This Week with David Brinkley" 10 days before the election. And Democrat Mark Warner exceeded expectations in his challenge to incumbent John Warner in Virginia.

Plenty of Republicans barely won re-election, with Pennsylvania 13th C.D. freshman Jon Fox the classic example. On election night, Fox was ahead by 10 votes.

Unlike two years ago, when David Price (D-NC 4) and Jack Brooks (D-TX 9) were upset, 1996 saw relatively few surprises. I'm not sure whether that's simply because we are doing a better job tracking races or whether voter anger has lessened so much that only the most vulnerable incumbents get upended. Whatever the reason, we'll have to wait two more years to find out whether long-shots are still worth looking for.

Copyright © 1996 AllPolitics
All Rights Reserved

Terms under which this information is provided to you